Start here if you're new
what it is
Landstar matches shippers with truck, rail, air, and ocean freight.
how it gets paid
Last year Landstar System made $4.7B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.6% last year. Trucking revenues were down slightly, as volumes fell about 0.8% and pricing improved by 0.5%.
what just happened
Q4 2025 EPS was $0.70, missing consensus near $0.99 by roughly 30%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
47.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
31.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Landstar matches shippers with truck, rail, air, and ocean freight.
Landstar runs on 1,441 employees, not a giant truck fleet. That is asset-light (it owns little hard equipment), so your cash is not stuck buying steel. Return on capital is 31.0% versus an 8.5% operating margin. The gap is the business.
How they make money
$4.7B
annual revenue · revenue declined -1.6% last year
total revenue
$4.7B
1.6%
The products that matter
brokers truck transportation
Truckload Brokerage
$4.7B revenue · effectively the whole business
it's the full $4.7B revenue engine, and the company keeps only 4.0% as net profit. that means you are underwriting execution and freight pricing more than segment mix.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$4.7B
annual revenue
That is the size of the machine. It is big enough to matter, but still small enough for a freight cycle to bend it.
31.0%
return on capital
For every dollar Landstar puts in, it gets 31 cents back in operating profit. Most businesses would take 15%.
47.9x
price tag
You are paying 47.9 times trailing earnings. The FY2027 estimate cuts that to about 23.5x if the forecast lands.
$174
18-month target
That is about 10% above the current $158.7 price. The market is still leaving some room for a freight recovery.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $48M (1% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.7% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 32% — $0.32 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LSTR 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,190.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Landstar missed EPS by ~30% when Q4 2025 EPS landed at $0.70 vs. consensus near $0.99.
Q4 2025 revenue was about $1.17B (not full-year $4.7B). Lower freight volumes and higher insurance/claims costs hurt, while rail helped and trucking stayed weak.
$1.17B
revenue (Q4)
$0.70
eps
8.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
EPS of $0.70 vs. consensus near $0.99 (~30% short) is the clean read—some data feeds used higher estimates, but the ~$0.99 street number is the common headline.
-
landstar system's fourth-quarter results may have marked the bottom of the freight cycle.
-
revenues declined 2.9% vs. prior year on lower shipping volumes.
-
trucking revenues were down slightly, as volumes fell about 0.8% and pricing improved by 0.5%.
-
in the rail-intermodel segment, volumes surged 22% and rates were up almost 7%, boosting sales in the division by more than 30%.
-
the smaller air and ocean freight unit saw revenues decline 40% compared to the prior year, but this division represents less than 5% of total sales.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top risk is truckload demand and pricing staying soft. Landstar does not have a second engine to bail it out if that cycle drags on.
med
freight softness hits almost the whole story
Landstar reported $4.7B of annual revenue, and effectively all of it comes from freight brokerage. When the truckload market weakens, there is nowhere else for growth to hide.
100% of the revenue base rides the same shipment volume and pricing cycle.
med
4.0% net margin is a thin shock absorber
The asset-light model helps returns, but it does not give you much earnings cushion. Four cents of profit on every revenue dollar means a modest pricing miss can become a large earnings miss.
Thin margins make the income statement more fragile than the balance sheet looks.
med
the valuation still assumes recovery shows up
47.9x trailing earnings is a rich multiple for a cyclical logistics name, especially when $10,000 invested three years ago turned into $9,190 while the index reached $13,880.
If recovery stays slow, the p/e can compress even if the company stays financially sound.
med
institutions have been sellers, not a backstop
The latest ownership data shows 175 buyers versus 224 sellers in 3Q2025, with institutions net selling for two straight quarters. That is a real sentiment headwind.
Negative ownership flow can keep pressure on the stock even if quarterly results are merely okay.
with only 4.0% net margin on $4.7B revenue, modest pressure on freight pricing or shipment volume can hit earnings fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly report
you want revenue moving from $4.7B toward the $5B full-year estimate without another round of headline confusion.
metric
net margin
4.0% is the number. if that slips, the low-30s return on equity stops looking like strength and starts looking like a peak-cycle memory.
risk
freight demand commentary
listen for shipment volume and pricing language. this business does not need a boom, but it does need the market to stop getting worse.
trend
institutional flow
two straight quarters of net selling is enough to matter. a reversal would be one of the cleaner signals that sentiment is turning.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4. in human-speak, analysts think this stock is more likely to lag than lead from here.
balance-sheet risk
below average
stability score 2 means the financing side looks safer than roughly 80% of stocks. the business risk sits in freight demand, not debt.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 says the tape is not helping you right now.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
middle of the pack. expect uneven quarters rather than the kind of consistency that earns a premium multiple.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 175 buyers vs. 224 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 35.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$128
$220
$159
current price
$174
target midpoint · +10% from current · 3-5yr high: $250 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive