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what it is
Louisiana-Pacific makes the wood panels, siding, and framing products that end up on houses and light commercial buildings.
how it gets paid
Last year Louisiana-Pacific made $2.7B in revenue. Siding was the main engine at $1.67B, or 62% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.9% last year. The key number was the 62.5% EPS miss.
what just happened
LPX's latest quarter was about one ugly number: $0.03 EPS versus $0.08 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
31.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Louisiana-Pacific makes the wood panels, siding, and framing products that end up on houses and light commercial buildings.
LPX wins by selling branded building products into repair and new construction at scale. It runs 22 plants and gets 62% of sales from siding, the less commodity-like part of the portfolio. That matters because when your house needs exterior work, brand trust and installer familiarity can matter more than shaving a few dollars.
How they make money
$2.7B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.9% last year
Siding
$1.67B
+8%
OSB
$0.81B
n/a
LP South America
$0.22B
n/a
Other
$0.00B
n/a
The products that matter
engineered wood siding
Siding
$1.67B revenue · 62% of sales
this $1.67B segment is 62% of sales and the cleaner part of the story. if LPX deserves a premium, it starts here.
core engine
commodity wood panels
Oriented Strandboard
$810M revenue · 30% of sales
this $810M segment is 30% of revenue and the most cyclical part of the company. when panel prices move, earnings can move with them.
cycle exposure
south american building products
LP South America
$216M revenue · 8% of sales
at $216M and 8% of sales, this segment is too small to drive the thesis alone. it does give LPX one smaller outlet beyond its core north american housing exposure.
small lever
Key numbers
31.5x
trailing p/e
You are paying a premium multiple for a company whose annual revenue just fell 7.9%, which means the market already expects a rebound.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: LPX still turns capital into decent returns even in a softer market.
7.7%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: this is not a fat-margin machine, so sales swings matter fast.
$348M
long-term debt
Debt is only 6% of capital, which gives LPX room to ride out a downturn without a balance-sheet panic.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $348M (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.9% — keeps 15 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LPX 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,500.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
LPX's latest quarter was about one ugly number: $0.03 EPS versus $0.08 expected.
Revenue was reported at $2.1B, up 223% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 23.5%. But the market cared more about the earnings miss and weak housing backdrop than the headline revenue jump.
$2.1B
revenue
$0.03
eps
23.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 62.5% EPS miss, because it tells you estimates are still too high for this part of the housing cycle.
-
louisiana-pacific started 2026 under new leadership.
-
jason p.ringblom succeeded brad southern as ceo, while nicholas grasberger iii assumed the role of independent chairperson of the board.
-
mr.ringblom previously oversaw the company’s global manufacturing and commercial operations, and now has the arduous task of navigating the company through a challenging backdrop.
-
this is punctuated by softening housing fundamentals and deepening affordability concerns.
-
operations are likely to show some sequential progress, following a probable soft start this year.random lengths (a sector benchmark) prices have risen of late, lifting oriented strandboard’s (osb) value to breakeven levels. unfortunately for louisiana-pacific, much of the improvement is being driven by industry consolidation and capacity curtailments.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a housing slowdown hitting the $1.7B siding segment while OSB remains weak.
med
housing and remodel demand
Siding is $1.7B, or 62% of revenue. if new construction and renovation stay soft, the best part of the business slows with it.
Siding plus OSB make up 92% of sales, so housing weakness reaches almost the whole company.
med
OSB pricing and utilization
OSB produced $812M of revenue, but management still expects a $25M–$30M first-quarter EBITDA loss. commodity pricing cuts both ways.
if OSB stays near breakeven instead of recovering, the mix shift toward higher-quality earnings takes longer.
med
litigation and government investigations
the company says it faces ongoing litigation and governmental investigations. the page does not give a dollar amount, so pretending precision here would be fake.
legal costs, fines, or operational changes would land at the wrong time for a business already navigating soft end markets.
med
CEO transition during a soft patch
a new CEO took over in 2026 while housing affordability worsened and OSB stayed under pressure. that is not the easy version of onboarding.
execution risk is real when leadership inherits a downcycle instead of momentum.
with 62% of revenue in Siding, 30% in OSB, and quarterly EPS just $0.13 last quarter, LPX does not need a large housing stumble for earnings to feel it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings (may 05, 2026)
watch whether Siding holds up and whether OSB loss guidance narrows from the $25M–$30M range.
trend
OSB pricing trend
the fastest way this story gets better is OSB moving from near breakeven to meaningfully profitable.
risk
housing affordability
mortgage pressure and renovation demand matter because 92% of revenue comes from Siding and OSB.
metric
valuation vs. earnings
a stock at 31.5x trailing earnings needs profits to stabilize. if the multiple stays high while estimates wobble, the market will do the math for you.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
outlook rank 3. in human-speak, analysts expect roughly middle-of-the-pack performance over the next 6–12 months.
risk profile
average
risk rank 3. not a bunker stock, not a disaster story.
chart momentum
average
momentum rank 3. the chart is not screaming either way.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
low predictability means quarterly results can swing with the cycle. expect surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 124 buyers vs. 172 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 68.8M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$63
$147
$84
current price
$105
target midpoint · +26% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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