Start here if you're new
what it is
Open Lending helps banks and credit unions make riskier auto loans by pricing the loan and lining up default insurance.
how it gets paid
Last year Open Lending made $93M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 288.0% last year. The key number was -$0.05 in EPS, because a high-margin model only works if those margins turn into actual profit.
what just happened
Revenue hit $74M, but the bigger story was that profits stayed negative.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.9% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$1.13 fy2024 eps est
$24M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 28/100 — weak
What they do
Open Lending helps banks and credit unions make riskier auto loans by pricing the loan and lining up default insurance.
Since 2000, it has facilitated more than 1 million auto loans totaling $27.3 billion. That operating history feeds its models. Underwriting → deciding which loans get covered → so what: if you are a lender, one connected system is easier than rebuilding pricing, insurance, and approval rules yourself.
How they make money
$93M
annual revenue · their business grew +288.0% last year
total revenue
$93M
+288.0%
The products that matter
loan underwriting and protection platform
Lenders Protection Program
23.9K certified loans last quarter
It's the core engine. When certified loans fell 13% vs. prior year to 23.9K, the rest of the income statement felt it.
core product
upfront fee revenue
Program Fees
$~65M · roughly 70% of shown mix
This is the main paycheck. If loan certifications do not recover, this line has no reason to rebound either.
~70% of mix
performance-based revenue
Profit Share
$~28M · roughly 30% of shown mix
This slice is smaller, but it still declined 15%. When both revenue streams are moving down together, you do not have a one-off problem.
~30% of mix
Key numbers
-$1.13
fy2024 eps est
$24M
fy2024 rev est
77.1%
gross margin
Gross profit kept about 77.1% of each revenue dollar.
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $130M (43% of capital)
C+ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for LPRO right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $74M, but the bigger story was that profits stayed negative.
The company posted quarterly EPS of -$0.05 and gross margin of 77.1%. Gross margin → how much sales remain after direct costs → so what: the product still prices well, but overhead and credit-related costs are eating the business.
$23M
revenue
$0.05
eps
77.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was -$0.05 in EPS, because a high-margin model only works if those margins turn into actual profit.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk here is application growth failing to convert into certified auto loans.
med
Certified loan volume keeps falling
Certified loans dropped 13% vs. prior year to 23.9K in Q4 2025. This is the core revenue engine, not a side metric.
If certifications do not recover, both program fees and profit share stay under pressure at the same time.
med
The funnel looks better than the output
Application flow rose 20%, but that did not translate into more certified loans. That gap suggests either weaker conversion or tighter lender behavior.
If more applications still do not produce more funded loans, the turnaround story becomes a pipeline story with no cash attached.
med
Debt limits flexibility
Long-term debt sits at $130M, or 43% of capital, while the balance sheet is graded C+.
Weak growth plus meaningful debt is how a bad quarter turns into a financing problem instead of just a bad quarter.
med
Turnaround execution still has to be proven
Management is trying to stabilize a business with a 25/100 earnings predictability score and a stock trading near the bottom of its $1–$4 range.
If execution slips, the market is unlikely to wait patiently. Small-cap lenders do not get many second chances.
If certified loans keep shrinking from 23.9K while debt stays at $130M, the fee stream and the balance sheet get tighter at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number that mattered
Certified loans versus application growth
A 20% rise in application flow means very little if certified loans stay below 23.9K. This is the cleanest test of whether the funnel is healing or just getting noisier.
next checkpoint
Q1 2026 results
Due in May 2026. You want to see whether the recent application growth finally turns into more certified loans and better revenue follow-through.
balance sheet
Debt staying at $130M
Debt is already 43% of capital. If revenue stays weak, this stops being background noise and starts shaping every strategic choice.
street signal
Analyst target revisions around the $2.40 midpoint
The current median target is $2.40, with a low target of $1.75 and a high target of $7. If estimates move down after the next quarter, the market will hear the message.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
In human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to produce steady quarters yet.
risk rank
5
This stock is safer than only 5% of stocks in the database. Translation: it lives in the risky end of the pool.
price stability
5 / 100
The share price does not behave like a steady compounder. It behaves like a small-cap turnaround people are unsure about.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for LPRO is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$2
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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