Start here if you're new
what it is
It provides back-office, tech, marketing, and academic support services to colleges, with Grand Canyon University as the biggest client.
how it gets paid
Last year Grand Canyon Ed made $1.1B in revenue. online program support was the main engine at $0.46B, or 42% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.1% last year. Annual revenue reached $1.1 billion, up 7.1% vs. prior year, and recent commentary pointed to continued demand for online and hybrid delivery.
what just happened
Recent quarterly service revenue runs in the mid-$200Ms (for example ~$238M in Q3 2024 per the company release). When you see multiple EPS figures on other sites, make sure they refer to the same quarter and basis (GAAP vs adjusted) before comparing to $3.21 vs $3.17 beats.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
18.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
25.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
It provides back-office, tech, marketing, and academic support services to colleges, with Grand Canyon University as the biggest client.
This business looks boring until you see the math. It posted a 34.0% operating margin and a 25.0% return on capital (return on capital → profit earned on money invested → this company turns spending into earnings better than most). If a university wants online and hybrid scale without building the whole machine itself, you are buying the operator that already has the tech, infrastructure, and processes in place for about 4,100 employees to run it.
How they make money
$1.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.1% last year
online program support
$0.46B
+10.0%
hybrid campus support
$0.28B
+10.0%
academic services
$0.19B
+7.1%
marketing and enrollment
$0.11B
+7.1%
technology and admin
$0.06B
+7.1%
The products that matter
education platform and institutional services
Institutional Services
$1.1B revenue
this is the entire $1.1B revenue engine in the snapshot data. in human-speak: your investment case lives or dies on one main operating machine.
core
Key numbers
25.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on invested money → at 25.0%, this company turns capital into earnings far better than the average school-like business.
34.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → 34.0% says this is a service machine, not a commodity operator.
18.6x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of profit → 18.6x is not expensive for a business with projected 8.5% earnings growth.
100
earnings steadiness
Earnings predictability → how steady profits have been over time → a score of 100 says this business has been unusually consistent.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- net profit margin 24.2% — keeps 24 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LOPE 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,830.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The latest reported quarter landed near ~$275M in service revenue (mid-$200Ms, consistent with the ~$1.1B annual bridge), with EPS of $3.21 versus a $3.17 estimate—same quarter and basis as in the filing, not a different line item.
Annual revenue reached $1.1 billion, up 7.1% vs. prior year, and recent commentary pointed to continued demand for online and hybrid delivery. Ignore unrelated “EPS ladders” on other sites if they mix GAAP vs adjusted, fiscal year vs quarter, or consolidated vs service-only revenue.
~$275M
revenue (q)
$3.21
eps (q)
34.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
~$275M in a quarter matters because it annualizes into the same ~$1.1B revenue story as the segment bridge, on top of already high 34.0% operating margins.
-
grand canyon education should post solid growth in the fourth-quarter.
-
in the third-quarter, grand canyon saw service revenue increase nearly 10% from a year ago, to $261.1 million, driven primarily by a rise in partner enrollments, to 138,073 students.
-
this reflects continued demand for both online and hybrid educational delivery models.
-
another strong comparison is likely on tap in the december interim, which should enable full-year revenues to rise roughly 8%, to $1.11 billion.management is focused on expanding its partner network beyond its core relationship with grand canyon university (gcu). this includes new academic offerings and targeted program growth, which ought to position the company to capture enrollment gains as more students seek flexible, technology-enabled higher education options. despite industry-wide demographic headwinds and evolving regulatory frameworks, management has expressed confidence in ongoing enrollment momentum, operational discipline, and the ability to expand its partner network. the company also emphasized aligning programs with labor-market demand, which could enhance its value proposition with potential students and drive sustained partner revenue growth.
-
the company's full-service support model may prove increasingly relevant.in particular, as the broader post-secondary education market confronts demographic and economic headwinds, students appear to be funneling into online, blended, and workforce-aligned credentials. continued enhancement of digital delivery infrastructure and expansion of strategic partnerships could further reinforce its competitive position within the post-secondary education ecosystem. advances in new student starts is being fostered by grand canyon's steady expansion of programs that are primarily focused on job-ready skills and a hybrid learning environment, allowing students to work part-time.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is regulatory pressure on the for-profit online education model.
med
regulatory scrutiny
LOPE operates in a part of education that regulators watch closely. Any rule change around recruiting, program economics, or compliance would hit a business built on strong margins.
with a 34.0% operating margin and 23.3% net margin, there is a lot of profitability to defend — and a lot to lose if the model gets less favorable.
med
enrollment slowdown
this snapshot gives you one main revenue engine at $1.1B. If new student demand slows, the income statement feels it quickly because there is not much disclosed diversification here.
a demand hit would pressure the full $1.1B revenue base, not some small side segment.
med
earnings reset
the latest quarter came in at $0.58 EPS, down 59% from last year. For a company with 100/100 earnings predictability, that kind of comparison is the quiet part loud.
if quarters like that continue, the current 18.6x trailing p/e stops looking reasonable and starts looking optimistic.
med
competitive pricing pressure
online education is not a monopoly business. If competitors get more aggressive on tuition, marketing, or program breadth, LOPE's efficiency edge has to do more work.
the company currently keeps 34 cents of every revenue dollar after operating costs. Competitive pressure mainly shows up by pushing that number down.
the combined risk picture is simple: anything that dents enrollment or regulation hits a business whose entire investment case rests on protecting unusually high margins across a $1.1B revenue base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
you want to see whether EPS rebounds from the last quarter's $0.58 and whether management still sounds comfortable with the $9.90 full-year estimate.
metric
operating margin
34.0% is what makes this story interesting. if that starts sliding, the valuation argument gets weaker fast.
risk
education regulation
watch for changes in oversight of for-profit online education. this is the one risk that can hit both enrollment and margins at the same time.
trend
institutional flow
two straight quarters of net selling is manageable. a third would tell you large holders still do not trust the setup.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack on risk, not in the bunker and not on the cliff edge.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not sending a dramatic message. the fundamentals have to do the heavy lifting.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management has a long record of producing dependable numbers. that's why the recent earnings drop stands out.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 214 buyers vs. 251 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 27.0M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$127
$274
$168
current price
$201
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $340 (+100% · 19% ann'l return)
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