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what it is
Cheniere chills U.S. natural gas into LNG, ships it overseas, and gets paid through long contracts and export infrastructure.
how it gets paid
Last year Cheniere Energy made $19.5B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 26.3% last year. Revenue jumping 228% vs. prior year matters most because it shows expansion volumes can overwhelm the usual LNG earnings noise.
what just happened
The quarter was a blowout, with revenue hitting $14.1B and consensus EPS landing far above expectations.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
26.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Cheniere chills U.S. natural gas into LNG, ships it overseas, and gets paid through long contracts and export infrastructure.
This business wins because the hard part is already built. Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, and the 94-mile Creole Trail Pipeline turn export capacity into a moat. Contracted capacity means future volume is largely spoken for, with 95% already contracted through the mid-2030s according to company materials, so your cash flow depends less on daily gas drama.
How they make money
$19.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +26.3% last year
total revenue
$19.5B
+26.3%
The products that matter
liquefies and exports natural gas
LNG Exports
$19.5B revenue
it's the entire $19.5B business, and it grew 38.2% from last year. if export volumes rise, you feel it everywhere. if they stall, you feel that everywhere too.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
48.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → how much profit stays after running the business → so what: Cheniere keeps nearly half of revenue before interest and taxes.
26.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this asset-heavy business is still generating strong returns on huge infrastructure spend.
12.6x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus yearly profit → so what: you are paying a modest multiple for a company with a $260 18-month target.
$22.0B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → borrowed money due over many years → so what: the buildout is financed, but leverage still matters when earnings swing.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $22.0B (32% of capital)
- net profit margin 16.9% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 42% — $0.42 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LNG 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,060.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The quarter was a blowout, with revenue hitting $14.1B and consensus EPS landing far above expectations.
EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue of $14.1B, up 228% vs. prior year, and EPS of $13.59, up 186%. Consensus data shows last earnings at $10.68 versus a $3.43 estimate, so the exact EPS line differs by source but the beat was still huge.
$14.1B
revenue
$13.59
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
Revenue jumping 228% vs. prior year matters most because it shows expansion volumes can overwhelm the usual LNG earnings noise.
-
cheniere energy will likely post mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results.
-
revenues probably expanded to about $5.5 billion, benefiting from the substantial completion of corpus christi stage 3 train 3 late in the third quarter and the commissioning of train 4, which reached substantial completion late december.
-
the firm likely gained from higher lng production volumes across both its lng facilities.
-
total volumes probably increased as operational improvements continued.
-
that said, we expect fewer derivative gains.these factors, combined with steady pricing under long-term purchase agreements, likely drove earnings to $3.43 per share in the december quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a slower-than-expected Corpus Christi ramp.
med
Corpus Christi execution
the growth story now leans on expanded capacity turning into real cargo volumes. if commissioning, reliability, or ramp timing slips, the market stops giving credit for the move from $19.5B revenue toward the $23B estimate.
this is the cleanest way the bull case breaks: the project finishes on paper, but the reported numbers stay stuck.
med
export policy and contract pressure
cheniere's business depends on shipping U.S. gas abroad under long-term commercial arrangements. regulatory changes, permitting friction, or contract pressure in key markets would hit the part of the model investors assume is durable.
when your entire business is LNG exports, policy is not background noise. it is part of the operating model.
med
earnings volatility from derivative marks
a 5/100 predictability score is the market telling you reported earnings can swing around. fewer derivative gains already explain part of the gap between the last reported $4.75 EPS quarter and the roughly $3.43 EPS setup for the december quarter.
you can get the long-term thesis right and still sit through ugly prints that make the stock act wrong in the short term.
med
terminal uptime and operating disruptions
this is a concentrated infrastructure story. unplanned outages at liquefaction facilities would hit exports, revenue, and cash flow quickly because there is only one real engine here.
an interruption does not nibble around the edges. it hits the same $19.5B revenue stream the whole valuation rests on.
a miss on volumes, uptime, or export policy would pressure the same business the street expects to grow from $19.5B to $23B while $22.0B of long-term debt stays on the balance sheet.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next report versus the $23B revenue path
the key question is whether quarterly results keep pointing toward the $23B fy2026 revenue estimate and $18.00 EPS estimate.
metric
Corpus Christi volume ramp
higher production volumes are the bridge between a good narrative and better reported revenue. this is the operating metric that matters most.
risk
derivative noise versus underlying demand
if EPS swings while volume commentary stays healthy, separate hedge accounting noise from the actual export business.
trend
institutional buying streak
institutions have been net buyers for three straight quarters. if that support fades while estimates flatten, sentiment can turn quickly.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2. in human-speak, analysts expect LNG to do better than most stocks over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. this is a normal risk bucket overall, even if individual quarters can still get noisy.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4. the stock has a decent fundamental setup, but the chart is not exactly pounding the table for you.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
reported earnings are hard to model cleanly here. translation: expect surprises and do not confuse one quarter with the whole story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 599 buyers vs. 507 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$171
$348
$216
current price
$260
target midpoint · +21% from current · 3-5yr high: $315 (+45% · 11% ann'l return)
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