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what it is
It sells life insurance, annuities, and retirement products through Lincoln Financial Group.
how it gets paid
Last year Lincoln National made $18.2B in revenue. Life Insurance was the main engine at $6.2B, or 34% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.2% last year. The 10.5% earnings beat matters because the stock rose 4.83% pre-market after the report.
what just happened
Lincoln National posted $2.21 a share on $2.00 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
5.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
23.2% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 40/100 — below average
What they do
It sells life insurance, annuities, and retirement products through Lincoln Financial Group.
Lincoln makes money from a $18.2B annual revenue base, not a single bet. Return on capital (profit on the money tied up in the business) is 23.2%, so each $100 of capital throws off $23.20 in profit. Your exit is costly because life insurance, group protection, annuities, and retirement plans spread the business across four revenue engines.
How they make money
$18.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.2% last year
Life Insurance
$6.2B
Group Protection
$5.7B
Annuities
$4.9B
Retirement Plan Services
$1.3B
Other
$0.1B
The products that matter
insurance and retirement products
Life insurance & annuities
$18.2B revenue
this snapshot only gives you the consolidated view, but that view is still large: $18.2B in annual revenue and $4.6B in the latest quarter.
core business
Key numbers
5.7x
trailing p/e
Price versus last year's profit is 5.7x, so you pay $5.70 for $1 of earnings.
4.0%
cash yield
You get $4 a year for every $100 you put in, which pays you while you wait.
23.2%
capital return
Each $100 tied up in the business generated $23.20 of profit.
$5.8B
long-term debt
Debt is 40% of capital, so the balance sheet has limits if earnings wobble.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $5.8B (40% of capital)
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LNC 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,680.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Lincoln National posted $2.21 a share on $2.00 expected.
Revenue was $13.3B, up 192% vs. prior year. EDGAR lists $1.87 EPS for the quarter, while Yahoo lists $2.21 for the same report. Those are different earnings measures.
$13.3B
revenue
$2.21
eps
n/a
n/a
last beat
The 10.5% earnings beat matters because the stock rose 4.83% pre-market after the report.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is earnings volatility in life insurance and annuity results. Lincoln looks cheap because the market does not believe every quarter will look like the last one.
med
earnings volatility
Earnings predictability is 5 / 100. In human-speak, this business has a habit of surprising you. That is normal in insurance. It is still a risk if you are buying the stock for steady compounding.
If quarterly results stop supporting the $8.55 full-year EPS estimate, the 5.7x multiple will not look like a bargain.
med
leverage and capital flexibility
Long-term debt stands at $5.8B, equal to 40% of capital. That is manageable with a B++ balance sheet, but it reduces room for error if markets or claims move against the company.
The trade-off is simple: debt supports returns until it starts limiting buybacks, dividend flexibility, or risk appetite.
med
cheap for a reason
The stock sits near the top of its $25–$47 52-week range, yet short-term outlook still ranks in the bottom 5%. Price strength and sentiment are saying different things.
If momentum rolls over, a stock that already looks optically cheap can still reset lower.
low
capital return expectations
A 4.0% dividend yield attracts income holders. That means the next update on buybacks and dividend policy matters more than usual, especially after strong earnings.
If management turns cautious on capital returns, some of the value case disappears with it.
A 5 / 100 predictability score plus $5.8B of long-term debt means the 5.7x p/e is cheap for a reason, not by accident.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether $8.55 in FY2026 EPS still looks reachable
At $45.20, that estimate implies about a 5.3x forward p/e. If the estimate slips, the cheap-stock argument weakens fast.
risk
debt staying near 40% of capital
$5.8B of long-term debt is fine until it starts crowding out flexibility. You want this number stable, not climbing.
calendar
the next earnings call
Listen for dividend posture, buybacks, and whether management treats the latest quarter as a new base or a strong one-off.
trend
institutional buying versus weak momentum
Three straight quarters of net buying against a bottom-5% short-term outlook is a real tension. If those signals converge, the stock may finally pick a direction.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — the lowest rating. in human-speak, analysts expect this stock to lag most names in the near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither especially safe nor unusually risky for a stock in this part of the market.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a strong signal either way.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
Results are hard to model. If you own LNC, expect more noise than you would get from a cleaner financial name.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 272 buyers vs. 232 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$23
$56
$45
current price
$40
target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+45% · 13% ann'l return)
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