Start here if you're new
what it is
Lilly makes prescription drugs for diabetes, obesity, cancer, and immune disease.
how it gets paid
Last year Eli Lilly made $65.2B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 44.7% last year. Demand for these two drugs has been so robust that the company has at times struggled to maintain supply.
what just happened
Lilly's last print missed by 1.54%, even while gross margin hit 82.5%.
At a glance
A++ balance sheet — fortress balance sheet — as safe as it gets
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
44.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
~48% operating margin (FY) — extreme operating leverage on GLP-1 scale
xvary composite: 85/100 — above average
What they do
Lilly makes prescription drugs for diabetes, obesity, cancer, and immune disease.
Lilly's operating margin is about 48% on this page and its dividend yield is 0.7%. That is profit before interest and taxes per sales dollar versus cash sent to you — the operating line is doing most of the work. Your money is being put back into a business with 41.1% net margin and strong projected sales growth on GLP-1 scale.
How they make money
$65.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +44.7% last year
total revenue
$65.2B
+44.7%
The products that matter
obesity and diabetes franchise
Mounjaro & Zepbound
$24.8B
it's already a $24.8B franchise. That's the number bending the valuation and pushing Lilly into a part of the market most drugmakers never reach.
core
rest of branded medicines
broader portfolio
$40.4B shown here
the snapshot groups a large part of the business into a $40.4B bucket. In human-speak: you own more than one drug story, even if the stock keeps trading like the GLP-1 story is the whole company.
supporting cast
capacity and supply buildout
manufacturing expansion
$1.00T valuation pressure
when a $24.8B franchise is helping support a $1.00T market cap, manufacturing is not back-office work. It is how demand turns into reported revenue.
future
Key numbers
$65.2B
TTM revenue
That is the top line the market is buying. It grew 44.7% vs. prior year, so this is not a sleepy dividend story.
44.6x
Trailing P/E
You are paying 44.6 dollars for every dollar of trailing earnings. That is a luxury price for a drugmaker.
48.0%
Operating margin
This means Lilly keeps 48 cents of every sales dollar before taxes and interest. That is why the cash machine keeps humming.
$1175
Mean target
The Street's average target is only 11% above $1,062.19. Upside exists, but it is not hiding in the couch cushions.
Financial health
A++
strength
- balance sheet grade A++ — the absolute highest — fortress balance sheet
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $40.9B (4% of capital)
- net profit margin 41.1% — keeps 41 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 75% — $0.75 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A++ with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LLY 3 years ago → it's now worth $30,210.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Lilly's last print missed by 1.54%, even while gross margin hit 82.5%.
Full-year revenue on this page is ~$65.2B. A single quarter scales to roughly ~$16.3B (~one-fourth of the year). Yahoo’s tape near ~$7.02 actual versus ~$7.13 expected is quarter EPS, not the mis-labeled $45.9B / $15.56 mash-up from mixed feeds.
~$16.3B
revenue (q)
~$7.02
eps (q)
82.5%
gross margin (q)
gross margin
Gross margin means money left after direct costs. At 82.5% on the latest print, that is the number that mattered because Lilly kept most of the revenue dollar before overhead.
-
eli lilly is executing at a high level.
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the drugmaker has delivered record earnings this year on the back of its burgeoning weight-loss drug business, highlighted by mounjaro and zepbound.demand for these two drugs has been so robust that the company has at times struggled to maintain supply, though these challenges faded during the course of this year thanks to significant investments in manufacturing. in total, the duo generated a combined $24.8 billion in sales over the first nine months of 2025, and now account for more than half of lilly’s top line.
-
the outlook continues to improve.
-
earlier in the year, several prints beat consensus before the latest slight miss.the weight-loss business has been the clear headliner, as performance of mounjaro and zepbound has largely exceeded early-year expectations — even though the latest quarter on this page missed by a small margin. solid momentum in the oncology segment, led by top asset verzenio, has also been supportive of growth this year.
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following the company’s most recent beat, leadership now anticipates 2025 adjusted earnings of $23.00-$23.70 a share on sales of $63.0 billion-$63.5 billion, up from its previous forecasts of $21.75-$23.00 and $60.0 billion-$62.0 billion.
source: EDGAR filing and Yahoo Finance consensus, 2026
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What could go wrong
the risk picture is unusually specific here: Lilly is a real business with a real A++ balance sheet, but a $24.8B GLP-1 franchise carrying part of a $1.00T valuation means even small execution misses can land like big stock problems.
med
GLP-1 growth cools from abnormal to merely strong
Lilly does not need demand to collapse. It just needs the franchise to stop feeling like the cleanest growth story in large-cap pharma.
impact: when $24.8B is doing this much narrative work, slower growth can hit both earnings expectations and the multiple investors are willing to pay.
med
manufacturing stays the bottleneck
The moat is partly the ability to make enough drug. If supply stays constrained, the story shifts from demand strength to execution friction.
impact: lost supply means lost revenue. It also weakens the argument that Lilly deserves a premium because it can scale faster than rivals.
med
multiple compression does the damage even if the business stays good
At 44.6x trailing earnings, investors are already paying for excellence. Great companies still produce mediocre returns when the starting price is too generous.
impact: the business can execute well and the stock can still disappoint if the market stops valuing Lilly like a hypergrowth outlier.
med
the upside math is thinner than the narrative
The published midpoint is $1175 versus a current price of $1062.19. That's not a giant gap for a stock carrying this much expectation.
impact: if operating results stay good instead of spectacular, you may get a fine business and only modest stock appreciation.
When a $1.00T company trades at 44.6x earnings because one $24.8B franchise feels unstoppable, you do not need a disaster to get a painful stock move.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings update
You want the next update to show demand, supply, and pricing still moving in the same direction. For a 44.6x earnings stock, one weak link is enough to change the mood.
trend
GLP-1 duration
The market already knows the franchise is big. What it keeps repricing is how long Lilly can keep growth looking abnormal instead of just strong.
risk
manufacturing commentary
If management still sounds supply-constrained, the bull case gets harder to separate from simple unmet demand. In this story, operations matter almost as much as demand.
metric
franchise concentration
Track how much of the growth story still depends on the $24.8B GLP-1 engine versus the rest of the portfolio. If concentration rises, the stock gets less forgiving.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
balanced
the stock already sits close to the published target range. in human-speak, analysts still respect the business more than they love the easy upside from here.
risk profile
demand-sensitive
this is a mega cap with a pharmaceutical balance sheet, but the share price still reacts like a growth stock whenever the obesity franchise looks less extraordinary.
chart momentum
expectation-driven
price action is tied to duration assumptions, supply confidence, and whether management sounds ahead of the curve.
earnings predictability
65/100
the business is steadier than most, but the stock overreacts because expectations are doing half the trading.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,943 buyers vs. 1,579 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.8B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$890
$1848
$1062
current price
$1175
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $1350 (+25% · 7% ann'l return)
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