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what it is
Lincoln runs career schools that train students for trades, healthcare, and office jobs.
how it gets paid
Last year Lincoln Educational made $518M in revenue. Automotive Technology was the main engine at $160M, or 31% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 17.8% last year. Revenue jumped 165% Vs. last year, which shows how fast this school chain can scale when enrollment and timing line up.
what just happened
Lincoln posted $375M of latest-quarter revenue and $0.23 EPS.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
60.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
5.4% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.32 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Lincoln runs career schools that train students for trades, healthcare, and office jobs.
career-oriented post-secondary education means job training after high school. so what: students pay for a path to a paycheck, not campus theater. Lincoln has 22 schools in 12 states across 3 brands, so leaving is painful for students who already started the program.
How they make money
$518M
annual revenue · their business grew +17.8% last year
Automotive Technology
$160M
Diesel & Heavy Vehicle
$70M
HVAC, Welding & Manufacturing
$120M
Health Sciences
$100M
Hospitality, Business & IT
$68M
The products that matter
automotive, diesel, hvac programs
Skilled Trades Training
~$285M · ~55% of revenue
This is the core engine. It accounted for roughly $285M of the $518.2M revenue base and grew 21.4%, making it the fastest-growing large piece of the business.
fastest large segment
nursing, business, it education
Healthcare & IT Programs
~$207M · ~40% of revenue
This segment contributes about $207M of revenue and grew 14.0%. It is less explosive than skilled trades, but it adds needed diversification to a business still expanding quickly.
diversifies the base
new and relocated campuses
Campus Expansion
$88M capex · 70% to growth
About 70% of the $88M 2025 capital spend went to growth initiatives like the new Houston campus. This is not a side project. It is the thesis in concrete and leases.
the bet
Key numbers
$518M
annual revenue
This is the base the whole story sits on.
60.4x
trailing p/e
You are paying a premium for a business with 6.2% operating margin.
6.2%
operating margin
Only 6.2 cents of each revenue dollar turns into operating profit.
13%
debt/capital
Debt is not crushing the company, but it does limit room to breathe.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $185M (13% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for LINC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Lincoln posted $375M of latest-quarter revenue and $0.23 EPS.
Revenue jumped 165% Vs. last year, which shows how fast this school chain can scale when enrollment and timing line up. The source did not give gross margin, so the profit read is incomplete.
$375M
revenue
$0.23
eps
n/a
n/a
revenue jump
The $375M quarter matters because it was 165% above last year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is new campuses missing the enrollment ramp baked into $580M–$590M of 2026 guidance.
med
Expansion spend can outpace demand
Lincoln spent $88M on capex in 2025, with about 70% aimed at growth projects. That is a lot of fixed investment for a company with $518.2M in annual revenue.
If enrollment ramps slower than expected, the company gets the higher cost base immediately and the revenue later. Or never.
med
The valuation leaves very little room for a stumble
At 60.4x trailing earnings, you are paying a premium multiple for a business with just a 6.2% operating margin and 5.4% return on capital.
That mix means even a modest miss on growth or margins can compress the multiple faster than fundamentals deteriorate.
med
Cheaper alternatives cap pricing power
This is still a for-profit school operator in a fragmented market. Community colleges and other training providers can offer similar credentials at lower cost.
When there is no moat, the burden shifts to execution. Lincoln has to win on outcomes, convenience, and growth, not pricing power.
med
Insider selling makes the story look less one-sided
Insiders sold 458,665 shares worth about $16.1M last quarter, and another 8,450 shares worth about $308k were sold on March 10, 2026.
That does not prove trouble. It does mean management is taking some chips off the table while public investors are being asked to underwrite a premium multiple.
A business with a 6.2% operating margin and 60.4x trailing p/e does not need a disaster to disappoint you. It just needs $88M of capex to produce less than the 12–14% growth implied by the 2026 guide.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
new campus payback
About 70% of the $88M capital budget went to growth initiatives. If new campuses fill seats quickly, the bull case works. If they do not, you own a pricier version of the same business.
calendar
investor day on march 19
Management presents from the Nashville campus on March 19, 2026. You want specifics on enrollment, utilization, and how the path to $580M–$590M is being built campus by campus.
trend
2026 growth pace
The guide calls for roughly 12–14% growth on a $518.2M base. That is still strong, but it is slower than the 17.8% growth just delivered. The deceleration is normal. The stock still needs it to look healthy.
risk
insider selling cadence
$16.1M of insider selling last quarter, plus another ~$308k on March 10, is not nothing. If selling continues while guidance stays ambitious, the market may start asking harder questions about conviction.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
Earnings are harder to model here than at a mature consumer company. In human-speak, analysts think this stock can surprise you.
risk rank
2
That reads as safer than 80% of stocks on balance-sheet and business-stability measures. The irony is the stock can still be volatile because the valuation is doing a lot of the work.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for LINC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$27
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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