Start here if you're new
what it is
Lennar builds and sells homes, then makes extra money from mortgages and apartment projects tied to those homes.
how it gets paid
Last year Lennar made $34.2B in revenue. Home sales was the main engine at $31.8B, or 93% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.5% last year. For the full fiscal year, the company reported earnings per share of $7.98, which fell well short of our estimate of $8.60 and was nearly.
what just happened
Lennar's latest reported quarter ended with EPS at $1.93, missing the $2.54 consensus by 24.0%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
13.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Lennar builds and sells homes, then makes extra money from mortgages and apartment projects tied to those homes.
Scale is the whole trick here. Lennar sold 82,583 homes in fiscal 2025, versus 80,210 in 2024, which lets it keep communities moving even when buyers get picky. Homebuilding still made 94% of revenue, so when you see Lennar cut price to keep volume up, you are watching a giant use size as a weapon.
How they make money
$34.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.5% last year
Home sales
$31.8B
4.9%
Land sales and other homebuilding
$0.3B
flat
Financial Services
$1.4B
dn
Multifamily
$0.4B
flat
Other
$0.3B
flat
The products that matter
builds and sells homes
Homebuilding
$34.2B revenue
it's the entire $34.2B business, and it ran at a 5.8% net profit margin. that means pricing, incentives, and land costs matter more here than fancy segment labels.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
94%
homebuilding mix
Nearly all revenue comes from building homes, so small changes in price and margin hit the whole company fast.
82,583
homes sold
That scale is the edge. Lennar sold 2,373 more homes than in 2024, even in a rough market.
$5.9B
long-term debt
Debt is 18% of capital, which is manageable for a cyclical builder but still matters when housing demand weakens.
13.9x
trailing p/e
You are paying 13.9 times trailing earnings, which is cheap versus the market because the market sees housing risk.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $5.9B (18% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.4% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LEN 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,520.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Lennar's latest reported quarter ended with EPS at $1.93, missing the $2.54 consensus by 24.0%.
The problem was simple. Lennar sold more homes, but at lower prices, and first-quarter 2026 gross margin was 15.2%, showing the pressure kept going after fiscal 2025 ended.
$6.6B
latest quarter revenue
$1.93
reported eps
15.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The miss was 24.0%: $1.93 reported versus $2.54 expected. Estimate miss → plain English: Wall Street expected more profit per share → so what: confidence resets lower fast in this group.
-
lennar ended a challenging 12-month stretch with a weak fiscal fourth-quarter performance. (fiscal 2025 concluded on november 30th.) specifically, the miami-based homebuilder earned $1.93 a share, which fell short of our estimate of $2.54 and the prior-year tally of $4.06.
-
a number of factors contributed to the shortfall, including a mid-single-digit top-line decline.
-
the company sold 4% more homes during the period, but at a considerably lower average sales price.lennar’s use of selling incentives and rebates to sell homes in a weak demand environment, along with increased land costs, hurt the company’s gross margin, which decreased roughly five full-percentage points during the three-month period.
-
for the full fiscal year, the company reported earnings per share of $7.98, which fell well short of our estimate of $8.60 and was nearly 45% below the prior-year tally.
-
the outlook for the current fiscal year is quite dour.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is mortgage-rate-driven housing affordability pressure.
high
mortgage-rate-driven affordability pressure
Lennar sells homes for a living. If mortgage rates stay high or move higher, monthly payments get harder to swallow and buyers step back.
This risk touches 100% of the $34.2B revenue base.
high
pricing held together with incentives
The company sold 4% more homes last quarter, but lower average selling prices and rebates hurt profitability. That's the kind of volume growth that can make revenue look sturdier than earnings.
Gross margin already fell by roughly five full percentage points.
med
land and development cost pressure
Land costs are one of the few numbers in this business that can ruin a quarter quietly. If lots get more expensive while selling prices soften, margins compress fast.
A thin 5.8% net margin leaves limited room for mistakes.
med
earnings downgrades if the slowdown lasts longer
Full-year EPS landed at $7.98, the latest quarter came in at $2.29, and analysts now look for $6.85 in FY2026 revenue of $33B. If that path gets revised lower again, the stock will not feel cheap for long.
This is the risk that turns a 13.9x multiple into a value trap.
a demand shock would hit all $34.2B of revenue while margins are already only 5.8%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings in march
Watch three things together: home deliveries, average selling price, and gross margin. One number alone will not tell you enough.
trend
whether pricing keeps slipping
Last quarter proved Lennar can move homes with incentives. The next question is whether it can do that without giving away the economics.
risk
land costs versus selling prices
When land costs rise and home prices fall, the spread closes from both sides. That's where homebuilder earnings go to have a bad time.
metric
gross margin stabilization
A business with a 5.8% net margin does not have much cushion. Margin stabilization is the clearest sign the worst of this reset is ending.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts expect weaker near-term performance than the average stock.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is normal public-equity risk, not a bunker stock and not a chaos stock.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a strong signal either way.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
Predictability is decent, not clean. In a cyclical builder, that means you should expect estimate changes when the market turns.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 285 buyers vs. 449 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$82
$165
$111
current price
$124
target midpoint · +12% from current · 3-5yr high: $205 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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