Start here if you're new
what it is
Lear makes car seats and vehicle wiring systems for major automakers worldwide.
how it gets paid
Last year Lear made $23.3B in revenue. Rest of world was the main engine at $8.5B, or 36% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.2% last year. Volumes were flat in north america, down 2% in europe, and up 2% in china.
what just happened
Lear posted $17.3B in quarterly revenue and $6.56 EPS.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Lear makes car seats and vehicle wiring systems for major automakers worldwide.
Lear operates in 37 countries with 255 locations. That is hard-to-switch supplier behavior, or the automaker sticking with the same vendor because changing seats and wiring is a headache for your assembly line. GM, Ford, Volkswagen, and Mercedes are the four biggest customers.
How they make money
$23.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.2% last year
North America
$5.1B
+0.0%
Europe
$6.5B
2.0%
China
$3.2B
+2.0%
Rest of world
$8.5B
+1.0%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells vehicle seating
Seating
$19.3B · 83% of sales
it's the $19.3B core business and 83% of company sales, so if automaker production weakens this is where the hit shows up first.
83% of revenue
builds vehicle electrical systems
E-Systems
$4.0B · 17% of sales
this $4.0B segment is only 17% of revenue today. It matters because it is the part of Lear that could change the mix story, but it is not big enough yet to carry the valuation on its own.
smaller, higher-interest segment
Key numbers
$23.3B
annual sales
That is the top line. It is the pool of money everything else fights over.
10.4x
trailing p/e
Price to earnings, or price divided by last year's profit, sits at 10.4x. That is cheap only if margins hold.
2.3%
yield
The dividend pays you while you wait. On a cyclical stock, that matters.
8.0%
op margin
Operating margin, or profit left after running the business, is 8.0%. That leaves little cushion.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $2.7B (28% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.1% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LEA 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,210.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Lear posted $17.3B in quarterly revenue and $6.56 EPS.
Revenue was up 204% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 6.7%. That is strong on the top line and still thin below it.
$17.3B
revenue
$6.56
eps
6.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $17.3B quarter mattered because it showed Lear can still scale through a weak auto market.
-
lear closed out 2025 with better-than-expected results.
-
fourth-quarter sales of $5.99 billion were nearly $260 million higher than our estimate and increased 5% compared to the previous-year tally.
-
the company outperformed the broader market, as global vehicle production was up 1% during the period.
-
volumes were flat in north america, down 2% in europe, and up 2% in china.
-
the seating segment reported a 5% rise in sales, driven by good demand in north america and china and favorable foreign exchange rates.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is global vehicle production slowing while oems keep the pricing power.
med
production volumes stall
Lear said global vehicle production was up just 1%, with Europe down 2% and North America flat. That is not much cushion for a supplier whose largest segment follows build rates.
With Seating contributing 83% of $23.3B revenue, weak production does not hit a side segment. It hits most of the company.
med
thin margins get thinner
A 3.5% net margin means Lear keeps only a few cents on each dollar of sales. That leaves little room for inflation, bad mix, launch costs, or pricing concessions.
Revenue can beat and EPS can still fall. That is exactly what the latest quarter showed with $5.99B of sales and EPS down 16%.
med
E-Systems stays too small to change the multiple
E-Systems is a $4.0B segment, but that is still only 17% of sales. If it does not become a larger share of the business, investors keep valuing Lear like a seating supplier first.
That keeps the stock tied to cyclical auto demand instead of earning a cleaner electronics-growth rerating.
med
earnings stay noisy
The predictability score is 45/100. In human-speak: this is not the kind of company where quarterly earnings glide higher in a straight line.
Low predictability and a low multiple often travel together. If the surprises stay negative, the stock can stay cheap longer than you want.
With Seating driving 83% of $23.3B revenue and net margin sitting at 3.5%, another production slowdown or pricing squeeze would hit the center of the story, not the edges.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarter margins
Sales already held up better than profit. You want the next report to show that margin pressure is not becoming the full investment case.
trend
global vehicle production
Lear flagged a backdrop of only 1% global production growth. If that slips, the 83% Seating mix matters even more.
risk
E-Systems mix shift
At 17% of revenue, E-Systems is still too small to change the story by itself. You want to see whether that share starts climbing.
metric
EPS estimate revisions
The current FY2026 EPS estimate is $14.50. If that starts moving down while the stock rallies, the low multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 is the highest rating. In human-speak, analysts think LEA has unusually strong near-term performance potential.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical stock risk. You are not hiding here, but you are not buying a chaos machine either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 points to above-average relative performance. In human-speak: the tape looks better than the business quality score does.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings predictability is below average. In human-speak: do not expect a smooth quarter-to-quarter story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 169 buyers vs. 143 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 53.8M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$67
$164
$133
current price
$116
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $260 (+95% · 20% ann'l return)
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