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what it is
Lucid builds high-end electric cars and the battery tech underneath them, then tries to scale before cash burn wins.
how it gets paid
Last year Lucid made $1.4B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 67.6% last year. Sales rose 147% vs. prior year, helped by higher production and deliveries.
what just happened
Quarterly revenue reached $831M, but earnings still missed expectations by 41.96%.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 23/100 — weak
-$4.50 fy2027 eps est
$6B fy2029 rev est
What they do
Lucid builds high-end electric cars and the battery tech underneath them, then tries to scale before cash burn wins.
Lucid's edge is engineering. The Air sedan delivers up to 516 miles on one charge, which is the number buyers remember when range anxiety means you stare at your battery like it insulted you. Vertical integration (building key parts yourself → more control over cost and performance → your product can stand out) helps, but it has not fixed the scale problem yet.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +67.6% last year
total revenue
$1.4B
+67.6%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells premium EVs
Electric Vehicles
$1.4B revenue · 100% of sales
it includes the Lucid Air and Gravity and generates the company's entire $1.4B revenue base. if demand slips here, there is no second engine to offset it.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$6B
2029 revenue
That forecast is 4.3x today's $1.4B. Translation: you are not buying the current business, you are buying a scale story.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Lucid loses about $2.59 for every $1 it sells.
15,841
2025 deliveries
Deliveries grew 55% vs. prior year, which proves demand exists. It just has not proven demand is profitable.
$2.1B
long-term debt
Debt is 39% of capital. Translation: funding matters a lot when the core business still burns cash.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $2.1B (39% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.4% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C+ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LCID 3 years ago → it's now worth $1,180.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Quarterly revenue reached $831M, but earnings still missed expectations by 41.96%.
Sales rose 147% vs. prior year, helped by higher production and deliveries. The problem is simple: more cars shipped did not fix the loss profile. The company earnings release showed EPS of -$3.62 versus a -$2.55 estimate, while SEC data lists latest-quarter EPS at -$8.50 on a different reporting basis.
$831M
revenue
$3.62
eps
n/a
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 41.96% EPS miss, because it says volume growth still is not translating into cost control.
-
business prospects for lucid group remain challenging.while the company probably closed out 2025 with improving revenues, we think the bottom line remained deep in the red. although lucid was not scheduled to release year-end results until late february, management did pre-announce some figures.
-
in the fourth quarter, the company produced 8,412 vehicles and delivered 5,345 vehicles, up 116% and 31%, respectively, from yearearlier figures.
-
for the full year, lucid produced 18,378 cars and delivered 15,841 vehicles, up 104% and 55%, respectively.
-
the gains were likely driven by the company’s flagship product, the lucid air.
-
we also believe the lucid gravity suv made a solid contribution to fourth-quarter volumes.the share loss was probably considerable in the december quarter, owing to the significant investments management continues to make to expand the product line and scale production. we anticipate robust top-line growth in 2026, although the bottom line will likely remain deep in the red. volumes for both the lucid air and lucid gravity are expected to rise at a strong clip this year, thanks to broader market appeal. management is especially enthusiastic about gravity, due to strong demand in the premium suv market.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is burning cash before lucid reaches efficient EV scale.
med
premium demand falls short of factory plans
Lucid produced 18,378 vehicles last year but delivered 15,841. If that gap widens, inventory starts to outrun demand instead of supporting growth.
The warning sign is already visible: production exceeded deliveries by 2,537 vehicles for the year.
med
losses stay too large for the growth rate
Revenue grew to $1.4B and analysts see $2B next year. That sounds good until you put it next to a FY2026 EPS estimate of -$7.00.
If revenue grows but losses stay near this level, the scale story turns into a funding story.
med
capital intensity meets a C+ balance sheet
Auto manufacturing eats cash before it earns it back. Lucid carries $2.1B in long-term debt, or 39% of capital, with a balance sheet grade grade of just C+.
That is enough leverage to matter in a business that still has not proven durable profitability.
med
the business is still one product family wide
Today, 100% of the company's $1.4B revenue comes from its EV lineup. There is no higher-margin software or services segment here to cushion mistakes.
All of the operating risk sits on one core business at a time when the stock already has a 5 / 100 price stability score.
All $1.4B of revenue sits in one still-unprofitable EV business, while the company carries $2.1B in long-term debt and is expected to lose -$7.00 per share in FY2026.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
production vs. deliveries
Q4 production was 8,412 vehicles against 5,345 deliveries. You want that gap narrowing, not becoming the business model.
earnings
whether FY2026 can reach $2B revenue
That estimate is the scale checkpoint. If Lucid misses it by a wide margin, the timeline to viability stretches again.
risk
losses relative to growth
A -$7.00 FY2026 EPS estimate means growth alone is not enough. You need to see losses shrink as revenue rises.
trend
whether Gravity broadens the revenue base
Right now the story still leans on Lucid Air. If Gravity adds real demand, the company becomes less of a one-nameplate bet.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock is more likely to lag than lead in the next stretch.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 5 — this is real drawdown risk, not routine volatility.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not giving you much help from here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
56 buyers vs. 436 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$8
$33
$11
current price
$21
target midpoint · +97% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+180% · 29% ann'l return)
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