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what it is
Liberty Energy helps shale producers crack rock, pump sand, and pull more oil and gas out of U.S. wells.
how it gets paid
Last year Liberty Energy made $4.0B in revenue. Permian Basin services was the main engine at $1.40B, or 35% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.2% last year. The 60.0% surprise matters because expectations were only $0.05.
what just happened
The last reported quarter delivered $0.08 in EPS versus a $0.05 estimate, a 60.0% beat.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
26.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Liberty Energy helps shale producers crack rock, pump sand, and pull more oil and gas out of U.S. wells.
Scale matters here. Liberty runs across five major U.S. basins and employs 5,700 people, which lets it keep crews and gear where your customer needs them. That scale still produced 11.5% return on capital (money invested in the business → profit generated from it → proof the assets still earn) even with a thin 1.8% operating margin.
How they make money
$4.0B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.2% last year
Permian Basin services
$1.40B
Denver-Julesburg services
$0.76B
Williston services
$0.60B
Eagle Ford services
$0.68B
Powder River services
$0.56B
The products that matter
pressure pumping for wells
Hydraulic Fracturing
$4.0B revenue · 100% of the business
it's the entire company: a $4.0B service line that grew 35.0% last year and now carries the full burden of a -$0.10 full-year EPS estimate.
the whole story
Key numbers
$0.10
FY2026 EPS
That is the bear case profit forecast. Negative earnings mean the stock's current optimism has very little room for error.
$5.0B
FY2028 revenue
That is the longer-term sales target. It is only 25% above today's $4.0B revenue base, so the growth story is real but not magic.
1.8%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Liberty has almost no cushion when pricing weakens.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from invested money → so what: the assets still earn decent returns even in a rough cycle.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $465M (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.3% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LBRT 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,030.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The last reported quarter delivered $0.08 in EPS versus a $0.05 estimate, a 60.0% beat.
Consensus data shows a beat, but the wider earnings picture is messy. Full-year 2025 revenue was $4.0B, down 7.2%, and the quarterly EPS path in the research data slid from $0.04 to -$0.20 across 2025.
$4.0B
annual revenue
$0.08
last EPS
60.0%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 60.0% surprise matters because expectations were only $0.05. When the bar is that low, a beat does not erase a weak cycle.
-
liberty energy is not immune to macro stresses on the u.s. oil patch.
-
oil & gas producers in the middle east are keeping their output elevated.
-
this has led to an oversupply of crude in the global market.
-
though oil prices have firmed, they remain suboptimal.liberty’s domestic customers have reduced rig activity in order to protect their profits and returns to investors.
-
strong gas demand has provided some offset.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is north american rig count and completion activity rolling over.
med
rig count weakness
Liberty sells pressure-pumping capacity into a drilling market that can cool fast. If producers keep reducing activity, demand pressure lands on the whole service fleet.
with one operating segment and $4.0B in revenue tied to completion work, this is the risk that moves almost everything else.
med
oil-price-driven customer budgets
the company does not sell oil, but it is still hostage to oil economics. When crude pricing stays suboptimal, customers protect returns by spending less.
that is how you get from a profitable $0.26 quarter to a -$0.10 full-year EPS estimate.
med
pricing pressure in pressure pumping
there is no wide moat here. Scale helps, but it does not force customers to pay more when industry capacity is abundant.
a 12.5% operating margin is decent. It can compress quickly if utilization or pricing slips.
med
stock volatility
a 15 / 100 price stability score is the market telling you this name does not trade like a utility. It trades like a cycle.
if the macro backdrop worsens, you should expect bigger swings here than in the average stock.
a slowdown in drilling budgets would pressure most of the $4.0B revenue base and make that -$0.10 EPS estimate look less pessimistic than it does today.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
the next update needs to show that $947M revenue and positive quarterly EPS were not just a brief pause in a softer year.
risk
north american rig activity
customer activity is the demand signal. If rigs and completions keep slowing, Liberty's revenue follows.
metric
operating margin
12.5% is healthy enough for now. The question is whether pricing and utilization can hold it there.
trend
full-year EPS revisions
the street sits at -$0.10 for fy2026. Upward revisions would tell you the cycle is stabilizing. More cuts would say the opposite.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge here.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 means more volatility than most stocks. You own a cycle, not a bunker.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the stock is mostly moving with the tape, not breaking away from it.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
predictability this low means quarterly numbers can swing hard when customer spending shifts.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 184 buyers vs. 166 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$28
$19
current price
$18
target midpoint · 6% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)
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