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what it is
Kohl’s sells clothes, shoes, and home goods through department stores across the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year S made $16.2B in revenue. Women's apparel was the main engine at $4.05B, or 25% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.2% last year. However, risks persist; middle-income and younger consumers remain constrained by limited discretionary income, and management warned of potential 2026 tariff headwinds.
what just happened
Kohl’s last quarter posted $1.30 EPS on $10.4B revenue.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
21.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
2.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 63/100 — average
What they do
Kohl’s sells clothes, shoes, and home goods through department stores across the U.S.
Private-label and exclusive brands are 31% of sales. That means 31 cents of every dollar comes from stuff Kohl’s can price its own way. You feel the difference because leaving means another store, another rack, and another coupon pile.
How they make money
$16.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.2% last year
Women's apparel
$4.05B
Men's apparel
$3.24B
Accessories
$3.24B
Home products and housewares
$2.43B
Children's apparel
$1.94B
Footwear
$1.30B
The products that matter
core apparel category
Women's Apparel
$4.1B · 25% of revenue
It's the largest category at $4.1B, or 25% of sales. If traffic or conversion slips here, the whole model feels it.
25% of revenue
family wardrobe spend
Men's Apparel
$3.2B · 20% of revenue
Another $3.2B category. In human-speak: one in every five sales dollars comes from men's apparel, so this is not some side aisle. It is core demand.
20% of revenue
basket-building add-ons
Accessories
$3.2B · 20% of revenue
Accessories are also $3.2B. They help ticket size. They do not rescue a business if core store traffic keeps fading.
20% of revenue
Key numbers
$16.2B
annual revenue
You are looking at a $16.2B chain. That is big enough to matter and small enough to wobble.
$0.70
FY26 EPS
That is the profit Wall Street expects for next year. Less than a dollar a share leaves little room for bad weather.
21.4x
trailing P/E
You are paying 21.4 times trailing earnings for a retailer with 0.9% net margin. That is rich for a store business.
$3.9B
debt load
Debt this size sits at 62% of capital. A slow quarter leaves less cash for fixes and buybacks.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $3.9B (62% of capital)
- net profit margin 0.9% — keeps 1 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 4% — $0.04 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KSS 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,230.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Kohl’s last quarter posted $1.30 EPS on $10.4B revenue.
That is up 1757% vs. prior year on EDGAR’s latest quarter. The consensus snapshot also showed $1.07 actual versus $0.47 expected, so the beat is real even if the size looks silly.
$4.2B
revenue
$1.30
eps
0.9%
net margin
the number that mattered
The $1.30 EPS print mattered because it proved the turnaround still throws off profit, even with sales swings this large.
-
a turnaround at kohl’s is gaining steam as the off-mall department store chain reported its third-straight quarterly beat in the october period.
-
while fiscal 2025 comparable sales remain negative (down 1.7% in q3) momentum is building, with october delivering a 1% comp.management’s strategy centers on re-engaging core kohl’s card customers, whose sales improved by 500 basis points, by restoring ‘‘trip assurance’’ through deeper inventory in essential categories like women’s basics. a key driver is the aggressive reinclusion of roughly 100 brands into coupon eligibility, removing friction for loyalists.
-
performance is also benefiting from a physical store re-layout, including a successful front-of-store move for juniors and the addition of 613 ‘‘impulse’’ queuing lines, which grew 40%.while the sephora partnership is maturing into a $2 billion business, growth levers remain, such as the 2026 launch of mac cosmetics. under permanent ceo michael bender, the company is leveraging ai for inventory allocation and creative content to drive efficiency.
-
disciplined management reduced stock levels by 5%, contributing to an expected $900 million in full-year free cash flow.however, risks persist; middle-income and younger consumers remain constrained by limited discretionary income, and management warned of potential 2026 tariff headwinds.
-
beyond the fundamentals, kss remains a deep-value play.its substantial real estate holdings and strong free cash flow suggest the stock is undervalued, trading well below its fair market value. with short interest near alltime highs, the stage is set for a massive short squeeze as the turnaround takes hold. we recommend these timely shares for risk-tolerant investors looking to capitalize on this recovery before the market fully prices in the success of the new leadership.
source: EDGAR filing and Yahoo Finance consensus, 2026
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What could go wrong
Kohl's is trying to stabilize a $16.2B sales base while keeping profit alive at a 0.5% net margin and carrying $3.9B of debt. You do not need a dramatic miss here. You just need weak traffic, more promotions, or another step down toward the $15B revenue estimate.
med
shrinking sales base
Analysts see revenue moving from $16.2B to roughly $15B. That's a smaller company next year, not a bigger one.
If the sales line keeps sliding, every fixed-cost problem gets louder.
med
margin fragility
Net profit margin is 0.5%. Kohl's keeps about 50 cents for every $100 of revenue.
A small markdown mistake, freight increase, or traffic miss erases what little profit is left.
med
debt reduces flexibility
Long-term debt is $3.9B, equal to 62% of capital. That is a meaningful burden for a business earning very little on each sales dollar.
Cash that could support stores, the dividend, or basic execution instead goes to servicing the balance sheet.
med
turnaround proof is still thin
October comparable sales were up 1%, but q3 comparable sales were still down 1.7% and quarterly EPS fell 65%.
If those green shoots do not spread beyond one month, the stock goes back to trading like a business the market does not trust.
A retailer expected to shrink from $16.2B to $15B does not have much room for pricing mistakes when it already keeps only 0.5% of sales as profit.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
revenue floor
Kohl's did $16.2B in annual revenue, while the current estimate is closer to $15B. The first job is stopping the shrink.
trend
comp sales follow-through
Q3 comps were down 1.7%, but October turned positive at 1%. You want to see whether one good month becomes a pattern.
risk
profit cushion
A 0.5% net margin means Kohl's keeps 50 cents per $100 of sales. That is not much insulation if promotions get heavier.
calendar
2026 beauty rollout
MAC cosmetics is set to launch in 2026. With Sephora already at $2B, beauty is one of the few clearly identified growth levers.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
outlook rank 1 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock can outperform in the near term even if the business still looks messy.
risk profile
below average
risk rank 4 — more volatile than most. This is a trade where the headlines and the fundamentals can disagree for a while.
chart momentum
top 5%
momentum rank 1 — the tape has been strong. The quiet part is that momentum is outrunning the actual earnings profile.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
Earnings predictability is very low. Translation: if you own this, you should expect the quarter-to-quarter path to stay noisy.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
153 buyers vs. 176 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$30
$21
current price
$19
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+40% · 11% ann'l return)
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