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what it is
Kimbell collects royalties from oil and gas production across the U.S. without running the wells itself.
how it gets paid
Last year Kimbell Royalty made $334M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.9% last year. The 425% earnings surprise mattered most because it shows how far actual results cleared the $0.04 expectation.
what just happened
Kimbell posted a big headline surprise, with EPS of $0.21 versus a $0.04 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Kimbell collects royalties from oil and gas production across the U.S. without running the wells itself.
Kimbell's edge is scale and spread. It has interests across 12.2 million gross mineral acres, 4.7 million gross overriding royalty acres, 28 states, and 129,000 gross wells. Royalty interests mean you get paid when others produce, without paying the drilling bill, so your cash flow is less exposed than the operator doing the heavy lifting.
How they make money
$334M
annual revenue · their business grew +7.9% last year
total revenue
$334M
+7.9%
The products that matter
collects royalties on third-party production
Mineral and Royalty Interests
$268M revenue · entire business
it's the whole revenue stream. when oil or gas pricing weakens, or when operators slow activity, there isn't another segment stepping in to smooth the quarter.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
10.7%
dividend yield
You are getting paid 10.7% a year to wait. That is the whole reason this stock gets invited into the portfolio conversation.
$448M
long-term debt
Debt is 29% of capital, which means leverage is present but not swallowing the business. You are not buying a balance-sheet accident.
$17
18-month target
The published 18-month target sits against a $12.07 stock price. That is about 41% upside if production and commodity prices stay cooperative.
13.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit produced from the money tied up in the business. At 13.0%, Kimbell is clearing the bar, not doing charity work.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $448M (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 24.0% — keeps 24 cents of every dollar in revenue
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KRP 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,030.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Kimbell posted a big headline surprise, with EPS of $0.21 versus a $0.04 estimate.
The quarter looked loud because revenue reached $251M, up 212% vs. prior year, even as the broader 2025 picture was described as mixed. That is the royalty model in plain English: the numbers can swing hard with production mix and commodity prices.
$251M
revenue
$0.21
eps
425%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 425% earnings surprise mattered most because it shows how far actual results cleared the $0.04 expectation, even in a choppy commodity setup.
-
kimbell royalty partners likely posted mixed results for 2025.
-
the company put in a soft showing for the september period.
-
earnings per unit fell 14% vs. prior year, on an 8% revenue decline.following the lackluster third-quarter showing, we slashed our 2025 top- and bottom-line estimates by $35 million and a nickel per unit, respectively.
-
we now expect the top line climbed 2%, thanks to gains in the front half of the year.kimbell likely posted a profit in the december stanza (compared to the large deficit in the prior year), and closed 2025 in the black.
-
the company should make progress this year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the core risk is simple: KRP gets paid when other people drill profitable wells into attractive acreage. if oil and gas prices weaken, operators slow down, or management overpays for the next package of minerals, your downside shows up fast in a business with one revenue stream.
high
oil and natural gas price volatility
This company has one revenue engine. A weaker commodity backdrop pressures the full $268M revenue stream and makes the $340M next-year estimate harder to justify.
100% of revenue is exposed to commodity pricing
high
acquisition pricing risk
Growth often comes from buying more mineral interests. With return on capital at 4.5%, there is not much room to overpay and call it strategy.
deal discipline matters more when returns already look thin
med
operator activity risk
KRP does not operate the wells. If third-party operators slow drilling or completions, royalty volumes can weaken even if KRP itself executes exactly as planned.
production-linked cash flow can slip without much warning
med
debt and financing pressure
The balance sheet is fine, not bulletproof. $448M in long-term debt equals 29% of capital, so expensive financing makes new deals less attractive and leaves less room for error if the cycle turns.
debt matters more when commodity prices stop helping
What would break the rebound case: revenue fails to move off $268M, return on capital stays around 4.5%, and management still leans on acquisitions to sell growth. That combination would leave you with cyclical exposure and no evidence of better compounding.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
return on capital
4.5% is the number to watch. if acquisitions are truly accretive, this needs to move up, not just revenue.
calendar
next quarterly update
you want to see whether flat revenue starts moving toward the $340M full-year expectation or whether that estimate begins to come down.
risk
oil and gas prices
commodity prices are the fastest path between macro headlines and KRP's cash flow. that's still the main variable in the story.
trend
institutional buying streak
net buying lasted three straight quarters. if that continues while the stock stays near $12, the setup gets more compelling. if it fades, that support signal weakens fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has a tougher path than most over the next stretch.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — you're not looking at a bunker stock or a chaos trade.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart isn't screaming either way.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: your quarterly numbers move around with the cycle.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 79 buyers vs. 72 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 28.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$10
$24
$12
current price
$17
target midpoint · +41% from current · 3-5yr high: $20 (+65% · 24% ann'l return)
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