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what it is
Keros (Nasdaq: KROS) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on TGF-β family biology. Lead candidate rinvatercept (KER-065) targets DMD and ALS; elritercept (KER-050) is advanced for cytopenias in MDS and myelofibrosis.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was about $244M on a GAAP basis — about $205M license revenue from the Takeda agreement plus about $39M service/other — versus about $3.6M total revenue in FY2024.
why it's growing
The vs. prior year revenue step-up is almost entirely partnership economics, not product sales. FY2025 net income was about $87M; Q4 2025 was still a net loss of about $23.5M as R&D and G&A continued.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was about $0.4M; diluted EPS was $(0.86). Cash and equivalents were about $287M at Dec 31, 2025; the company guided runway into the first half of 2028 on current assumptions.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~7x trailing P/E on FY2025 GAAP EPS — distorted by one-time license revenue
$(5.00) FY2024 diluted EPS (GAAP)
~$3.6M FY2024 GAAP revenue
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Clinical-stage TGF-β biology company: rinvatercept for neuromuscular disease; elritercept for cytopenias in hematology.
Platform logic still applies — shared ligand-trap science across muscle, bone, and blood indications — but economics today are partnership- and milestone-driven, not a steady commercial base. The Takeda deal moved FY2025 GAAP accounting; it does not mean the core business is “finished.”
How they make money
~$244M
FY2025 GAAP revenue (year ended Dec 31, 2025) · step-up from ~$3.6M in FY2024, driven by Takeda license revenue
license revenue (FY2025)
~$205M
vs. ~$3M FY2024
service & other revenue (FY2025)
~$39M
vs. ~$0.6M FY2024
The products that matter
balance sheet reality
cash and deal economics
~$287M cash · FY license revenue
The Takeda license moved FY2025 GAAP revenue and earnings; cash and stated runway (into H1 2028 on current assumptions) are the practical bridge to the next clinical milestones.
funding oxygen
lead clinical program
rinvatercept (KER-065)
DMD · ALS
Company expects Phase 2 in DMD to start Q2 2026 and plans ALS Phase 2 regulatory engagement in H2 2026. This is the lead neuromuscular bet; data and timelines drive the tape.
lead program
hematology
elritercept (KER-050)
MDS · myelofibrosis cytopenias
Described as the most advanced candidate for cytopenias; economics now flow through the Takeda collaboration. Secondary programs still matter for platform credibility even when headlines follow rinvatercept.
partnered
Key numbers
$2.30
FY2025 diluted EPS (GAAP)
Driven by license revenue and other income — not a clean “steady earner” multiple. Q4 2025 diluted EPS was $(0.86).
~$244M
FY2025 GAAP revenue
Mostly Takeda license recognition; quarterly revenue can be tiny when milestones are not booked.
27.7%
FY2025 operating margin
GAAP income from operations divided by revenue for FY2025 — reflects the license, not product gross profit.
$287M
cash (Dec 31, 2025)
Company expects cash to fund planned operations into H1 2028 on current assumptions (per Q4/FY2025 materials).
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- term debt none on Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet · ~$35M total liabilities (leases + payables)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for KROS right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
Q4 / FY2025
Q4 2025: revenue ~$0.4M · diluted EPS $(0.86). FY2025: revenue ~$244M · net income ~$87M · diluted EPS $2.30.
The ~$244M FY revenue is annual GAAP, not a single quarter. It reflects license revenue tied to Takeda plus service/other. Q4 net loss ~$23.5M as R&D and G&A continued; FY net income benefited from the license and other income including dividends.
~$244M
FY2025 revenue
$2.30
FY2025 diluted EPS
$(0.86)
Q4 diluted EPS
the number that mattered
Separating FY license revenue (~$205M) from Q4 operating reality (~$0.4M sales, ongoing burn) matters — otherwise trailing multiples mislead.
source: Keros Q4/FY2025 earnings materials (Mar 4, 2026)
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What could go wrong
Keros is not dealing with ordinary quarterly risk. You are underwriting clinical proof, financing endurance, and the possibility that last year's revenue print was a one-off economic event rather than the start of a business.
med
rinvatercept fails to carry the story
The quiet part loud: sentiment still keys off neuromuscular execution. If the lead program disappoints, investors are not trimming a growth rate — they are questioning the core asset.
impact: a single failed readout can reprice a clinical-stage biotech in one move. If you held through that, the drawdown would likely dominate everything else on the page.
med
cash lasts shorter than the market expects
Cash ~$287M and guided runway into H1 2028 help, but this is still a clinical-stage company with no approved product — future capital needs depend on data and milestones.
impact: if funding needs arrive before better data do, dilution becomes part of the thesis rather than a footnote to it.
med
the market stops honoring the one-time earnings print
A low trailing multiple on FY2025 GAAP EPS (~$2.30) can mislead: net income ~$87M is tied to license and non-operating items, while quarterly revenue can be near zero between milestones.
impact: even without bad science, the shares can weaken if investors re-anchor from trailing earnings to expected losses and catalyst risk.
The number that matters is not last year's revenue headline by itself. It is whether cash and clinical progress stay ahead of the next financing question.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
license revenue vs. quarterly sales
FY2025 looks huge; Q4 2025 sales were ~$0.4M. Track whether future periods book more milestones or return to “thin revenue + burn” optics.
calendar
the next company update
Use the next update to judge whether management is still speaking in concrete milestones. Clinical biotech stories age badly when the timeline gets vaguer instead of clearer.
risk
cash versus timeline
You do not need a full DCF here. You need to know whether current resources still cover the path to the next meaningful data point without forcing a weaker financing.
metric
20 / 100 predictability
That score is a warning label, not decoration. If predictability stays this low, treat every clean-looking valuation metric with suspicion.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
mixed
target coverage is thin. in human-speak, the street does not have a clean shared view of what this is worth yet.
risk profile
volatile
price stability is 5 / 100. That translates to sharp moves around stock-specific catalysts rather than the slow drift you get in a mature operator.
chart momentum
catalyst-driven
This name trades more on clinical milestones and cash read-through than on a smooth technical trend. The chart is reacting to the thesis, not explaining it.
earnings predictability
20/100
Earnings swing because the economic model is still forming. If you need consistency, this is the wrong part of the market.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for KROS is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$16.58
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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