Start here if you're new
what it is
Karman builds missile, defense, and space systems for customers who cannot afford bad parts.
how it gets paid
Last year Karman Hldgs made $345M in revenue. Tactical Missile and Integrated Defense Systems was the main engine at $117M, or 34% of sales.
what just happened
Revenue hit $337M, while EPS came in at $0.07 on 40.5% gross margin.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
505.3x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
25.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
$1.00 fy2027 eps est
$2B fy2029 rev est
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Karman builds missile, defense, and space systems for customers who cannot afford bad parts.
Karman serves 70 customers across 100 programs. That is a lot of doors, and each one is hard to replace. Mission-critical systems → parts the military cannot swap fast → so your customer relationship lasts longer than the paperwork.
How they make money
$345M
annual revenue
Tactical Missile and Integrated Defense Systems
$117M
Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense
$114M
Space and Launch
$114M
The products that matter
missile and launch systems
Missile & Defense Systems
$276M · 80% of segment revenue
this is the core business. At $276M, it represents four-fifths of the current revenue base and is the piece the new Utah facility is meant to scale.
core revenue driver
space hardware and systems
Space Programs
$69M · 20% of segment revenue
it's a smaller $69M business today, but it gives you exposure beyond missile programs and keeps Karman tied to the broader space spending cycle.
diversification
production capacity expansion
Utah Facility Ramp
ties to the $2B fy2029 revenue case
this is not a separate revenue segment yet. It's the operational bet behind the growth story. When a stock trades at 505.3x earnings, added capacity matters because the valuation is already assuming it works.
execution watch
Key numbers
$345M
annual revenue
This is the whole business size. Compare it with the $10B market cap, and you see the stock is paying for growth that is not in the revenue yet.
18.4%
op margin
This is the share left after operating costs. For every $100 of sales, $18.40 survives.
505.3x
trailing p/e
This is the price on last year's earnings. That is a very expensive seat.
78%
u.s. military
This is where the revenue comes from. If procurement slows, a lot of the top line moves with it.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- net profit margin 22.7% — keeps 23 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for KRMN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $337M, while EPS came in at $0.07 on 40.5% gross margin.
Revenue was up 177% vs. prior year. Gross margin held at 40.5%, which is a real number, not a vibe.
$337M
revenue
$0.07
eps
40.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The big number was $337M. That is 177% above last year, which makes the business look less tiny and the valuation look less forgiving.
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karman holdings inc. is making its debut this week in the institutional data.
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the company is a leader in the rapid design, development, and production of next-generation systems for launch vehicles, satellites, spacecraft, and missile defense.its highly engineered products are organized into three primary categories; payload protection and deployment, aerodynamic interstage, and propulsion systems. the company was created primarily by the completion of four acquisitions in the 2020-2021 time frame. The company's business model provides it with an advantage over most competitors.
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karman has developed differentiated technical design expertise, which gives it the ability to work with customers earlier in a program's lifecycle and helps it develop mission critical solutions.such early participation often results in karman products and systems becoming part of the future production specification. typically, once a supplier has been qualified on a particular program and is delivering on the basis of quality, it is unlikely that a customer would pursue re-qualification given a relatively lengthy and costly process. this barrier to entry leaves karman in a strong competitive position. Diversification provides karman with some protection against changes in military priorities. the company is a supplier to over 80 prime contractors in the defense industry and it is involved in more than 130 different programs.
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therefore, it is not reliant any one or a few companies or contracts for its success.
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karman's breadth is also wide, as it manufactures products used on systems ranging from missile defense to unmanned underwater vehicles. The trading history on these shares is too short for us to generate a outlook rank for them.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is valuation outrunning operating reality. A $10B market cap on $345M of current segment revenue and a 2.65% profit margin leaves very little room for a slow ramp. Here's what you should care about: if operating cash flow stays negative and the path toward $2B by 2029 starts looking less believable, the multiple has less and less to stand on.
high
negative operating cash flow
The company is consuming cash while the stock is priced like a future compounding machine. If cash conversion stays weak, growth gets more expensive and the premium multiple has less support.
this risk collides directly with the valuation case
med
utah facility ramp misses plan
The new facility is part of the market's growth math. Delays, lower utilization, or production issues would make the path from $345M toward the $2B 2029 estimate look much less believable.
the growth story depends on capacity showing up on schedule
med
defense budget and program concentration
Karman serves over 80 prime contractors, but its end-markets still sit inside defense and space. Missile & Defense is 80% of the current segment revenue base. A shift in program timing or procurement priorities would hit the core business fast.
most of today's revenue base points back to the same funding ecosystem
low
new-ceo reset risk
Jon Rambeau starts as CEO on March 23, 2026. Fresh leadership can help, but it also raises the odds of a strategic reset, new targets, or a more sober framing of the growth path.
leadership changes often bring cleaner truth and lower near-term comfort
If cash flow stays negative, margins stay thin, or capacity slips, the story stops looking like a premium industrial and starts looking like an expensive promise.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
management
new ceo takes over on march 23, 2026
Jon Rambeau comes from L3Harris. Your first read matters less than his first operating targets. If guidance gets more conservative, the market will have to decide whether that's honesty or a crack in the story.
capacity
utah facility ramp
The factory is part of the path from $345M toward the $2B 2029 estimate. Watch utilization, output, and whether production issues show up before revenue does.
cash flow
does gross margin turn into real cash
40.5% gross margin sounds healthy. Negative operating cash flow says the cash has not followed. That gap is one of the most important numbers on the page.
ownership
institutional support after the ipo honeymoon
Institutions have been net buyers for three straight quarters, but one holder sold 146,698 shares in a recent quarter. If more large holders start trimming, that would tell you the easy optimism phase is fading.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
not ranked yet
trading history is still too short. in human-speak, the stock is too new for the usual ranking systems to make a credible 12-month call.
long-range story
growth-dependent
the positive case rests on scaling from $345M of current segment revenue toward $2B by 2029. Analysts like the runway. The market has already started charging you for it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 181 buyers vs. 49 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 76.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$90
$130
$76
current price
$110
target midpoint · +45% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+70% · 14% ann'l return)
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