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what it is
Knight-Swift moves freight across North America with trucks, trailers, brokerage partners, and cross-border lanes.
how it gets paid
Last year Knight-Swift Trans made $7.5B in revenue. Truckload was the main engine at $4.50B, or 60% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.8% last year. Fourth quarter volumes fell short of expectations, as seasonal project activity in october ended quickly and the typical broad-based demand lift never materialized until late.
what just happened
Latest quarter EPS came in at $0.31 versus a $0.40 estimate, a 22.5% miss.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
47.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
Knight-Swift moves freight across North America with trucks, trailers, brokerage partners, and cross-border lanes.
Scale is the moat here. Knight-Swift runs about 22,791 tractors and 92,831 trailers, which means your freight has more ways to get covered than at a smaller carrier. Asset-based fleet (company-owned trucks) → physical hauling capacity → so what: when freight gets messy, size still wins.
How they make money
$7.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.8% last year
Truckload
$4.50B
3.3%
Dedicated
$1.05B
+0.8%
Brokerage
$0.75B
+0.8%
Intermodal
$0.60B
+0.8%
Cross-border and drayage
$0.60B
0.8%
The products that matter
core asset-based freight hauling
Irregular Route Truckload
$7.5B revenue base
This snapshot's segment data is thin, but the anchor is clear: the company generated $7.5B in annual revenue, and truckload volumes were soft enough in the latest quarter that loaded miles fell 3.3% from a year ago.
center of gravity
cross-border freight network
TransMex
productivity mattered
Mexico border blockades disrupted productivity at TransMex. In a business that only earned $1.26 per share last year, operational friction does real damage fast.
execution risk
ltl and network efficiency push
2026 efficiency plan
$150M cost program
Management is leaning on $150M of structural truckload cost reductions, tech deployment, and unified LTL branding to lift earnings from here. That's the recovery script in one sentence.
bull-case lever
Key numbers
47.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with last year's profit → so what: you are paying a growth-stock multiple for a trucking company with a 2.9% operating margin.
$2.2B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: leverage is real, but debt is 18% of capital, which keeps the balance sheet from becoming the story.
$75
18-month target
Target price → a benchmark for where analysts think shares can go → so what: versus $59.16, the setup implies about 27% upside if profits recover.
2.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: out of every $100 of sales, only $2.90 is left before interest and taxes.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $2.2B (18% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.5% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KNX 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,720.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter EPS came in at $0.31 versus a $0.40 estimate, a 22.5% miss.
Fourth quarter volumes fell short after seasonal project work ended quickly. Truckload loaded miles fell 3.3%, and Mexico border blockades hurt TransMex productivity.
$5.6B
revenue
$0.31
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 22.5% EPS miss matters most because the stock already trades at 47.0x trailing earnings, so misses get expensive fast.
-
knight-swift closed out 2025 somewhat softly.
-
fourth quarter volumes fell short of expectations, as seasonal project activity in october ended quickly and the typical broad-based demand lift never materialized until late december.
-
the truckload segment saw loaded miles decline 3.3%, from a year ago, while revenue per loaded mile improved just 0.7%.
-
mexico border blockades disrupted productivity at the transmex division.the secondary equipment market weakened during the quarter as regulatory enforcement squeezed smaller carriers, causing gains on equipment sales to fall $4 million below expectations and pressuring margins across segments.
-
still, the next couple of years should be marked by accelerating momentum.contract pricing should improve low to mid-single digits during bid season, as capacity tightens and customers shift volume from brokers to assets. technology investments deploying in 2026 will unlock efficiency gains through advanced route optimization, ai-enabled overhead reduction, and cross-brand capacity matching capabilities. the ltl segment moving to unified branding eliminates customer confusion and opens bidding opportunities with larger shippers requiring national network coverage. structural cost reductions totaling $150 million in truckload position the company for meaningful operating leverage when volume and pricing recover simultaneously.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is truckload demand staying weak while pricing barely improves.
med
freight recovery fails to show up
The latest quarter already showed truckload loaded miles down 3.3% from a year ago, with revenue per loaded mile up only 0.7%. If volume and pricing both stay muted, the earnings rebound behind the stock's valuation gets delayed again.
This hits the entire $7.5B revenue base and keeps pressure on a business that only earned $1.26 per share last year.
med
thin margins meet higher costs
At a 5.4% net margin, KNX does not have much cushion. Diesel, labor, insurance, and compliance costs do not need to spike dramatically to matter when you only keep about 5 cents of every revenue dollar.
Even with a B++ balance sheet and $2.2B of long-term debt, margin compression would flow quickly into earnings.
med
the 2026 efficiency plan underdelivers
Part of the bull case depends on technology rollout, unified LTL branding, and $150M in structural truckload cost reductions. If those savings arrive late or smaller than promised, the stock loses one of its main support beams.
The street's $75 midpoint assumes better earnings power than the current $1.26 run rate suggests.
A flat freight market does not need to turn disastrous to hurt KNX. With only 5.4% margin on $7.5B of revenue, small misses in utilization or pricing can derail the recovery embedded in the stock.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly freight read
The next report needs to show that loaded miles are no longer sliding and that pricing is improving by more than the recent 0.7% pace.
metric
the $1.95 eps estimate
That is the recovery number the market is leaning on. If analysts cut it materially, the multiple will stop looking forgiving.
risk
transmex and execution friction
Border disruptions already hurt productivity. If those issues linger, operational improvement elsewhere has to work harder just to offset them.
trend
whether $150M in cost cuts becomes real
The cost program is one of the few hard numbers in the recovery case. If it lands, margins get help. If not, this stays a hope trade.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts see a normal setup here — not a runaway winner, not a disaster.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means KNX sits near the market middle on risk. The balance sheet helps. The freight cycle does not.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3 says the chart is behaving normally. You're not getting a strong trend signal from price alone.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
A 40/100 predictability score tells you the earnings line can move around. That fits a trucking business tied to demand, rates, and utilization.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 202 buyers vs. 226 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$47
$103
$59
current price
$75
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $110 (+35% · 9% ann'l return)
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