Start here if you're new
what it is
Kemper sells auto, property, life, and health insurance, then collects premiums and tries to pay out less than it takes in.
how it gets paid
Last year Kemper made $4.8B in revenue. Specialty personal auto was the main engine at $2.40B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.3% last year. The number that mattered was $0.25 because it turned a cheap stock into a proof-required story.
what just happened
Kemper ended 2025 with December-quarter profit per share of $0.25, far below the $1.47 analyst estimate and down from $1.78 a year earlier.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
9.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Kemper sells auto, property, life, and health insurance, then collects premiums and tries to pay out less than it takes in.
Insurance is boring until you need it. Kemper spreads that risk across multiple lines, with property and casualty at 80% of 2024 revenue and life and health at 20%, based on company disclosure in the primary research source. That mix gives you more than one engine, even when one business line has a bad year.
How they make money
$4.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.3% last year
Specialty personal auto
$2.40B
down
Other property & casualty
$1.44B
flat
Life & health insurance
$0.96B
flat
Consumer financial services
$0.00B
flat
The products that matter
personal insurance policies
property/casualty insurance
part of a $4.8B insurer
this is the part of the story most likely to swing results. In an insurer earning 8% on equity, claims discipline matters more than narrative.
claims set the tone
life protection products
life insurance
no segment breakout here
the snapshot does not split out life revenue, so you should treat it as support inside the same $4.8B base rather than a separately proven growth engine.
detail is thin
health coverage offerings
health insurance
companywide revenue up 3.3%
health is part of the mix, but the page gives you no stand-alone economics. So you judge it through the company scorecard instead: modest growth, modest returns, low predictability.
watch disclosure
Key numbers
9.1x
earnings multiple
That means you are paying $9.10 for each $1 of trailing profit, based on the primary research source. Cheap is the point here.
4.1%
dividend yield
You are getting paid while you wait, with a yield above the S&P 500's typical range.
8.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from invested money → so what: Kemper earns $0.085 for each $1 it puts to work, which is decent but not elite.
$944M
long-term debt
Debt equals 33% of capital in the primary research source, which is manageable but still real in a volatile insurance cycle.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $944M (33% of capital)
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KMPR 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,310.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Kemper ended 2025 with December-quarter profit per share of $0.25, far below the $1.47 analyst estimate and down from $1.78 a year earlier.
The primary research source says the hit came from weak specialty property and casualty results, lower specialty personal auto volume, and reduced earned premiums from run-off business lines. Quiet part out loud: 80% of revenue sits in property and casualty, so that weakness drives the story.
$0.25
profit per share
$1.47
analyst estimate
83.0%
miss vs estimate
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $0.25 because it turned a cheap stock into a proof-required story. Until quarterly profits recover, the low multiple is not a bargain by itself.
-
kemper corporation ended a difficult 2025 with a sharp vs. prior year earnings decline during the december quarter.looking at it with added granularity, operating earnings per share dialed in at $0.25, which was markedly below the previous year’s $1.78 tally.
-
the primary reason for the sharp profit decline was a lackluster performance at the specialty p&c insurance unit, in particular the specialty personal auto segment.adjusted operating income here plummeted to around $2.6 million during the period, down from more than $101 million in the previous year. elevated bodily injury claim severity, especially in california, and higher claim frequency overall, increased losses.
-
aggregate revenues also declined during the period, which was another negative factor.
-
this was the result of lower specialty personal auto volume and a reduction in earned premiums for run-off business lines.kmpr stock, it should be noted, has been in a free-fall over the past year or so, resulting from the subpar earnings performance. we forecast a moderate recovery at the bottom line this year, while our freshly-inked 2027 estimates suggest sharper improvement. a key driver will be whether kemper can improve its combined ratios, especially in the specialty p/c auto insurance business. we are cautiously optimistic that it can, due to better pricing, more-efficient claims handling, and expense controls, which might well lead to underwriting profitability in that segment.
-
we look for the earnings rebound to continue over the 2029-2031 time frame.more-stringent underwriting standards, particularly in the specialty auto unit, along with rate increases underpin our long-term profit-growth assumptions.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
KMPR does not need a dramatic failure to disappoint you. It just needs claims, pricing, or estimates to drift the wrong way in a business already scoring 5/100 on predictability.
high
underwriting misses in auto and property/casualty
Insurance is a pricing business disguised as a financial stock. If Kemper prices risk badly, claim costs can wipe out the benefit of a 9.1x multiple fast.
This matters because the whole $4.8B revenue base depends on premiums staying ahead of claims. If that slips, the cheap stock gets cheaper for a reason.
med
low earnings consistency keeps the multiple low
A 5/100 predictability score is the market telling you results have been messy. Cheap stocks stay cheap when investors do not trust the earnings stream.
If predictability does not improve, the 4.1% yield may be the only part of the thesis you get paid for.
med
returns stay mediocre
Kemper produced 8.5% return on capital and 8% return on equity. Those are not disaster numbers. They are also not strong enough to force investors into a richer valuation.
If profitability stays around these levels, the stock may deserve to trade like a slow recovery instead of a clear rerating story.
med
estimate cuts break the cheap-stock math
The forward case leans on $5.50 in fy2027 EPS and about $5B in revenue. Those are the numbers holding the value argument together.
If estimates move down, 5.8x forward earnings stops reading as upside and starts reading as the market seeing trouble early.
combined, these risks sit on top of a $4.8B revenue base, an 8% return on equity profile, and a 5/100 predictability score. That is why the stock looks cheap, and it is also what needs to improve for the case to work.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
predictability off the floor
5/100 earnings predictability is the whole problem in one number. If that starts improving, the valuation debate changes fast.
trend
institutional buying streak
three straight quarters of net buying matters more if it continues. 185 buyers versus 165 sellers says interest is there. you want proof it is durable.
risk
return on equity above 8%
8% return on equity is acceptable, not special. A real rerating usually needs profitability to move above fine and closer to convincing.
calendar
next estimate revisions
the street is modeling about $5B in revenue and $5.50 in EPS for fy2027. If those numbers start moving down, the cheap multiple stops looking cheap.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this earnings stream to stay smooth.
balance sheet strength
B++
above-average financial health. Good enough to matter, not strong enough to erase execution mistakes.
risk rank
3
that puts KMPR around the middle of the pack for safety — not fragile, not a bunker stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 185 buyers vs. 165 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 52.6M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$29
$76
$32
current price
$53
target midpoint · +65% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+150% · 28% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive