Start here if you're new
what it is
KeyCorp is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and collects fees across about 940 branches in the northern U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Keycorp made $1.7B in revenue. Commercial and industrial was the main engine at $0.92B, or 54% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.5% last year. For 2026, management is guiding to roughly 7% revenue growth, supported by net interest income growth of 8%-10%, as higher-yielding commercial loans replace consumer balances.
what just happened
KeyCorp's was a clean beat, with revenue hitting $1.3B and EPS at $1.09.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
KeyCorp is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and collects fees across about 940 branches in the northern U.S.
You do not switch your main bank for fun. KeyCorp has about 940 branches across 15 states and 17,396 employees, which keeps local relationships close to customers. That scale helps hold deposits and win loans; leaving means moving your cash, bill pay, cards, and credit lines all at once.
How they make money
$1.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +6.5% last year
Commercial and industrial
$0.92B
Residential mortgage
$0.40B
Commercial real estate
$0.30B
Consumer
$0.09B
The products that matter
commercial lending and treasury services
Commercial Banking
$680M · 40% of segment revenue
this business generated $680M and grew 18%. It's the growth engine management needs if the 2026 outlook is going to hold.
40% of mix
deposits, cards, mortgages, branch banking
Consumer Banking
$850M · 50% of segment revenue
it's the largest piece at $850M. That makes deposit costs and consumer credit quality more than side details — they are the story.
largest segment
wealth and asset management fees
Investment Management
$170M · 10% of segment revenue
this $170M slice grew 12%. It's useful diversification, but at 10% of the mix it does not drive the investment case on its own.
stabilizer
Key numbers
$2.00
FY2027 EPS
EPS → profit per share → so what: at $23.01, you are paying about 11.5 times that estimate, below the trailing 15.1 times.
3.7%
dividend yield
Yield → your cash payout from the stock price → so what: you are getting paid while you wait for earnings to rise from $1.52 in 2025 to $2.00 in 2027.
0.42%
charge-offs
Net charge-offs → loans the bank does not expect to collect → so what: 0.42% says credit is stable for now.
54%
C&I loan mix
More than half the loan book is commercial and industrial, so business demand matters more here than consumer spending.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $9.9B (28% of capital)
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KEY 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,910.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
KeyCorp's was a clean beat, with revenue hitting $1.3B and EPS at $1.09.
The last reported quarter beat the $0.41 EPS estimate with actual EPS of $0.43 on the standard quarterly line, and broader reported figures showed sharp vs. prior year improvement. Management also pointed to stable credit and a favorable near-term outlook.
$425M
revenue
$1.09
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 0.42% net charge-off rate mattered most because a bank can fix growth later, but bad credit usually sends the bill immediately.
-
keycorp turned in a solid showing in the recent fourth quarter.earnings were $0.43 per share, up modestly from $0.38 (excluding a large loss on the sale of securities) in the year-ago period. pre-tax, pre-provision income totaled $764 million, reflecting higher revenue and continued expense control.
-
credit performance remained stable, with net charge-offs at 39 basis points and further declines in nonperforming assets and criticized loans.tangible book value rose sequentially, and the company repurchased $200 million of common stock during the quarter.
-
the near-term outlook appears favorable.
-
for 2026, management is guiding to roughly 7% revenue growth, supported by net interest income growth of 8%-10%, as higher-yielding commercial loans replace consumer balances.
-
expenses are expected to rise 3%-4%, allowing for a modest increase in income.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is pressure to pursue bank m&a before the core earnings recovery is fully proven.
high
activist pressure around consolidation
HoldCo Asset Management withdrew proxy fights in October 2025 after KeyCorp and Eastern Bancshares responded, but the message was clear: investors are still looking at bank M&A as a catalyst.
strategic pressure can push management toward a deal before organic improvement has earned the rerating
med
inflation and rate volatility hitting the 2026 guide
Management's outlook calls for roughly 7% revenue growth and 8%–10% net interest income growth in 2026. If inflation resurges or funding costs stay high, that math gets worse fast.
this risk directly pressures the earnings recovery thesis
med
credit quality rolling over from here
Net charge-offs were 39 basis points and nonperforming assets improved. That is good news. It also means the next move matters more — especially if commercial real estate, REIT, CLO, or broader private-credit exposure draws more scrutiny.
credit deterioration would hit earnings, capital flexibility, and investor confidence at the same time
the recovery case depends on three things holding at once: roughly 7% revenue growth, 8%–10% net interest income growth, and credit staying cleaner than the market fears.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number
2026 revenue growth guide: roughly 7%
Management put a number on the recovery. If quarterly results drift below that pace, the story gets less generous fast.
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected April 16, 2026. You want to see whether the strong Q4 was the start of a trend or just a clean quarter.
credit
net charge-offs and criticized loans
39 basis-point charge-offs looked manageable. Bank rallies last until credit says otherwise.
ownership
institutional buying streak
Institutions were net buyers for two straight quarters. If that flips while guidance softens, pay attention.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a bank that is improving, but not one with perfectly reliable quarter-to-quarter earnings.
balance sheet quality
B++
above average capital strength. That lowers disaster risk, but it does not eliminate execution risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 369 buyers vs. 326 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.0B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$13
$28
$23
current price
$21
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+50% · 14% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive