Start here if you're new
what it is
Keurig Dr Pepper sells the stuff you drink at home, at work, and out of a hotel room coffee machine.
how it gets paid
Last year Keurig Dr Pepper made $16.6B in revenue. carbonated soft drinks was the main engine at $5.8B, or 35% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.2% last year. Full-year revenue reached $16.6B, up 8.2%, and gross margin was 54.4%.
what just happened
KDP beat on earnings with $0.60 in EPS versus a $0.55 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
14.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Keurig Dr Pepper sells the stuff you drink at home, at work, and out of a hotel room coffee machine.
KDP wins by being everywhere. It has more than 125 brands and about 140 distribution centers in the U.S., which means your store shelf and office break room already know the route. Distribution network (products move through its own system → brands stay visible and stocked → rivals have a harder time taking space) is the moat here.
How they make money
$16.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.2% last year
carbonated soft drinks
$5.8B
coffee systems and pods
$4.7B
water, juice, and tea
$3.4B
mixers and specialty beverages
$1.5B
international and other
$1.2B
The products that matter
packaged beverages and coffee
Packaged Beverages
$16.6B revenue · 8.2% growth
it's the entire business on this page: $16.6B in annual revenue, 8.2% growth last year, and a 17.4% net margin that shows real pricing power.
17.4% net margin
earnings engine
Full-Year EPS
$2.00 in FY2025
EPS is profit per share. KDP finished FY2025 at $2.00, and the 2026 estimate is $2.20. That's the growth bridge the market is judging.
2026 est. $2.20
shareholder return stream
Dividend
3.7% yield
a 3.7% dividend yield matters more when the stock trades at $28 than when it's chasing momentum. You're getting paid to own a slower story.
income support
Key numbers
3.7%
dividend yield
You are getting paid 3.7% a year to wait, which matters when the stock's price stability is a perfect 100 out of 100.
14.1x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings (stock price versus yearly profit per share → what you pay for each dollar of profit → cheaper can mean lower expectations) is low for a defensive drinks company.
28.5%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business → how much of each sales dollar survives core costs → higher usually means stronger pricing) says this is a very profitable beverage machine.
$13.5B
long-term debt
That debt load is manageable today, but it matters a lot more with a roughly $23 billion acquisition in the picture.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $13.5B (26% of capital)
- net profit margin 18.4% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KDP 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,520.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
KDP beat on earnings with $0.60 in EPS versus a $0.55 estimate.
Full-year revenue reached $16.6B, up 8.2%, and gross margin was 54.4%. The plain-English takeaway: cost cuts and steady drink demand are still working.
$4.5B
revenue
$0.60
eps
54.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin at 54.4% matters because it shows KDP is keeping more than half of each sales dollar before overhead.
-
keurig dr pepper likely closed 2025 with healthy sales and earnings results.
-
the beverage manufacturer managed to record top- and bottom-line advances during the first nine months of last year.
-
this performance was commendable, given numerous broader market uncertainties.
-
strategies geared toward offsetting challenges included ongoing cost-cutting ventures and the creation of in-demand beverage offerings.also, pricing initiatives, aligned with the current inflationary environment and on par with industry peers’ price increases, likely helped drive healthy sales and earnings progress through year-end.
-
the outlook for 2026 is upbeat, with expectations of 5% and 10% increases for sales and share earnings, respectively.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top risk is steady growth turning too steady. KDP already has the margin. What it needs next is enough growth to earn a better multiple.
high
5% revenue growth misses the bar
The current setup points to roughly $17B in FY2026 revenue, up from $16.6B. If that growth rate fades, the stock loses the main argument for rerating.
This puts the valuation case directly at risk because 14.1x earnings stops looking cheap when growth slips.
med
8.0% return on capital stays mediocre
Return on capital measures how efficiently management turns invested dollars into profit. At 8.0%, KDP is profitable, but not efficient enough to force the market into paying a premium.
If efficiency does not improve, the stock can remain a value trap with a dividend attached.
med
$13.5B of debt limits flexibility
The balance sheet is fine at B++, but $13.5B in long-term debt and 26% of capital tied to leverage mean KDP has less room for error than the safest staples names.
That matters most if growth slows while the dividend still needs funding.
low
weak momentum becomes the story
Technical score 5 is the lowest rating in this system, and the stock remains well below the $36 high. Sometimes a cheap defensive stock just stays cheap because nobody needs to chase it.
This is less about business quality and more about how long you may need to wait.
KDP gives you 17.4% net margin and a 3.7% yield, but it also gives you just 8.0% return on capital, $13.5B of debt, and a stock that has badly trailed the market. That's a stable profile, not a bulletproof one.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
fy2026 eps estimate at $2.20
This is the number holding the story together. If analysts start cutting it, the "cheap at 14.1x" argument gets weaker fast.
calendar
next earnings update
You want to see whether the quarterly EPS trend can keep climbing after $0.55 in the latest quarter.
risk
debt discipline
With $13.5B in long-term debt, balance-sheet drift matters more here than it would at a cleaner staples name.
trend
whether the stock can reclaim the low $30s
The shares are at $28.16 inside a $25–$36 range. Price improvement would tell you the market is finally buying the 2026 setup.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
Momentum score 4. In human-speak, analysts think this stock could lag in the next stretch even if the business stays stable.
risk profile
above average
Stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. This is a defensive name, not a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
weak
Technical score 5 is the lowest rating in this system. Translation: the chart still looks tired.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
Predictability is decent, not pristine. You should expect a generally steady business, not a metronome.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 442 buyers vs. 411 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$24
$48
$28
current price
$36
target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $50 (+80% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive