Start here if you're new
what it is
Kaiser makes specialty aluminum parts for planes, cars, electronics, and factory equipment.
how it gets paid
Last year Kaiser Aluminum made $3.4B in revenue. Aerospace and defense products was the main engine at $1.10B, or 32% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.5% last year. The $2.4B top line matters most. Kaiser turned a normal quarter into a huge one.
what just happened
Kaiser posted $2.4B in quarterly revenue, and EPS hit $5.10.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
3.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Kaiser makes specialty aluminum parts for planes, cars, electronics, and factory equipment.
Kaiser runs 13 manufacturing facilities and employs about 3,700 people. That factory footprint is hard to copy. If your part is built to exact specs, changing suppliers means retesting, delays, and fresh paperwork. Kaiser also sells into aerospace and defense, where customers pay for reliability, not just cheap metal.
How they make money
$3.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.5% last year
Aerospace and defense products
$1.10B
+14.0%
Packaging sheet
$0.75B
+8.0%
Automotive extrusions
$0.55B
+10.0%
General engineering products
$0.60B
+6.0%
Electronics and electrical products
$0.40B
+5.0%
The products that matter
processes specialty aluminum
Semi-Fabricated Specialty Aluminum
$3.4B revenue · the whole business
This line is 100% of the $3.4B revenue base. Snapshot data also shows 4.2% growth here last year. That gap versus the company-level 11.5% tells you the segment detail is thinner than the headline, but the concentration is not — this one line is the company.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$3.4B
annual sales
This is the size of the machine. You are not buying a tiny niche stock.
2.0%
net margin
Every $100 of sales leaves about $2 of profit. That is a thin cushion.
$1.0B
debt
Long-term debt equals 37% of capital, so refinancing risk matters.
16.9x
trailing pe
You pay 16.9 times trailing earnings for a business with a 2.0% margin.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $1.0B (37% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.0% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 6% — $0.06 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in KALU 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,020.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Kaiser posted $2.4B in quarterly revenue, and EPS hit $5.10.
Revenue jumped 190% vs. prior year. Yahoo also shows a beat at $1.67 versus $1.40 expected, so both sources point the same way even if the labels differ.
$2.4B
revenue
$5.10
eps
190%
revenue vs. last year
revenue surge
The $2.4B top line matters most. Kaiser turned a normal quarter into a huge one, and sales were up 190% from last year.
-
kaiser’s stock price is up over 35% since our late-september report.this is a result of better-than-expected secondand third-quarter results, and management’s improved outlook for the fourth period. very high tariffs on imported aluminum helped the company’s domestic sales, and a relative lack of reciprocal tariffs from overseas trading partners aided kaiser’s international sales. meantime, heavy capital spending over the past three years has resulted in greater operating efficiencies, thanks to increased automation and modernization refurbishments.
-
the company has extended its revolving credit facility.
-
the tranche of $575 million in senior secured notes has been extended until october, 2030.
-
it can be used for a wider variety of funding purposes than the previous revolver.
-
the only catch is that it will cost the company 5.875% in interest, rather than the previous rate of 4.625%.this is a little stark when one considers that interest rates are coming down, but the erratic nature of the stock (see high beta of 1.65) probably had something to do with the higher rate.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the key risk here is simple: Kaiser Aluminum only keeps 2.7% of revenue as profit, so small operating misses do not stay small for long.
med
aluminum spread compression
Kaiser sells processed aluminum, but it still lives with commodity math. If input costs rise faster than selling prices, the spread narrows and the margin does the same.
At 2.7% net margin on $3.4B of revenue, there is not much space between a decent quarter and a rough one.
med
volume softness across served markets
This is still a manufacturing business tied to customer orders. If industrial, aerospace, or defense demand slows, fixed costs do not shrink on command.
Because this one segment is the whole company, demand pressure touches 100% of the revenue base.
med
refinancing bought time, not cheap money
The revolving facility was extended and $575M of senior notes were pushed to 2030, but the rate rose to 5.875% from 4.625%.
With $1.0B in long-term debt equal to 37% of capital, higher financing cost takes a bigger bite when the underlying margin is already thin.
med
valuation cushion is not generous
The 3–5 year target midpoint is $96 while the stock trades around $110, and the high target is $120. That is not a lot of room for disappointment.
If FY2026 earnings really land at $5.20, you are relying on execution to justify a stock already priced near the high end of its visible target range.
A margin squeeze, a volume dip, or pricier debt all hit the same place: a $3.4B revenue base that only turned into a 2.7% net margin last year.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
The next report needs to show whether FY2025's $6.50 EPS was a level or a peak. That is the central question now that FY2026 consensus sits at $5.20.
metric
net margin
2.7% is already thin. If margins slip from here, the whole valuation conversation changes fast.
trend
estimate direction
Watch whether the $5.20 FY2026 EPS estimate starts moving back up or keeps widening the gap from the $6.50 FY2025 result.
risk
institutional selling
Institutions were net sellers for two straight quarters. If that extends again, you should assume large holders see less upside with the stock near the top of its range.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock has better near-term price action than most names.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3. You are not looking at a fortress, but this is not a balance-sheet emergency either.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3. The chart is no longer washed out, but it is not offering an obvious second leg up either.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
Quarterly results are harder to model here than in steadier businesses. Expect variance, not clockwork.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 102 buyers vs. 104 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 15.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$46
$146
$110
current price
$96
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $120 (+10% · 5% ann'l return)
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