Start here if you're new
what it is
St. Joe turns northwest Florida land into neighborhoods, hotels, shops, industrial sites, and property services.
how it gets paid
Last year St. Joe made $513M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 27.4% last year. The 27.8% EPS miss mattered most because this stock already trades at 31.5x earnings.
what just happened
The quarter's headline was $0.52 EPS, which missed the $0.72 consensus estimate by 27.8%.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
31.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
St. Joe turns northwest Florida land into neighborhoods, hotels, shops, industrial sites, and property services.
St. Joe wins because it controls a huge chunk of developable land in one stretch of northwest Florida, where roads, utilities, and entitled lots are hard to replicate quickly. You are not buying a generic landlord. You are buying a land bank turned into revenue at a 28.5% operating margin, which means every $100 of sales leaves about $28.50 after operating costs.
How they make money
$513M
annual revenue · their business grew +27.4% last year
total revenue
$513M
+27.4%
The products that matter
develops, leases, and sells property
Northwest Florida Property Portfolio
$513M revenue · +27.4% growth
it is the whole business: $513M in annual revenue, up 27.4%, supporting a 24.6% net profit margin. if this local market holds, you own a compounding land story. if it slows, there is nowhere else to hide.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
31.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each $1 of profit. You are paying a premium multiple for a business with projected 5.0% earnings growth.
28.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → how much is left before interest and taxes. This is strong for a developer and shows the land base has pricing power.
$399M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → borrowings due over many years → balance-sheet pressure. At 9% of capital, debt is present but not the main problem here.
$775M
2029 revenue est.
Revenue estimate → expected sales → the market is betting this land machine keeps compounding. From $513M today to $775M by 2029 implies the runway is real.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $399M (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 23.0% — keeps 23 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in JOE 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,330.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter's headline was $0.52 EPS, which missed the $0.72 consensus estimate by 27.8%.
That miss sits next to a business still growing fast on a full-year basis. SEC filings show trailing revenue of $513M, up 27.4% vs. prior year, with 42.3% gross margin.
$126M
revenue
$0.52
eps
42.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 27.8% EPS miss mattered most because this stock already trades at 31.5x earnings, so your room for operational wobble is small.
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the st.
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joe company has seen its shares rise ahead of the fourth-quarter report.
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indeed, joe stock advanced 20% in the last three months, following solid third-quarter results and a quarterly dividend hike.year-to-year top- and bottom-line comparisons have turned favorable in 2025, helped by high demand in northwest florida’s real estate market, tight labor statistics, increased property rates and successful investments in expanding and diversifying its real estate network. increased migration to the region is supporting demand for the company’s communities in the florida panhandle. a major catalyst has been year-round nonstop delta flights between panama city beach and new york city, which began november of 2025. this has boosted tourism and recognition of the area, particularly the company’s watersound community and likely drove higher occupancy across the real estate and hospitality segments. in addition, new development projects and expansion of small- and midsized business have supported growth across the commercial segment.
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as such, the company likely registered double-digit top- and bottom-line gains in 2025.
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we are generally optimistic about business prospects over the next two years.new projects are expected to increase local traffic, as the company announced development of a publix super market at watersound west bay center, along with a standalone 18,000-square-foot multi-tenant building nearing completion with expected occupancy in early 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is northwest florida concentration. JOE is making good money, but every dollar of the $513M revenue base still depends on one regional economy holding together.
high
single-market exposure
100% of reported revenue traces back to one part of florida. If housing demand, tourism, or commercial activity weakens there, the whole story weakens with it.
this risk touches the full $513M revenue base, not one segment.
high
premium valuation on a narrow story
the stock trades at 31.5x trailing earnings and about 27.7x forward earnings based on the $2.50 EPS estimate. That is a rich price for a company tied to one geography.
if growth cools, the multiple has more room to fall than expand.
med
lumpy development earnings
quarterly EPS moved from $0.30 to $0.51 to $0.67 to $0.72 across FY2025. The direction was good. The cadence still tells you revenue and profit can arrive in chunks.
a delayed sale, slower lease-up, or project timing slip can distort a quarter fast.
med
weather, insurance, and local infrastructure strain
hurricanes, storm damage, insurance inflation, or local infrastructure disruption would hit the same region where St. Joe earns its money.
regional concentration turns a local shock into a company-wide one.
100% of its $513M revenue is exposed to one part of florida while the stock trades at 31.5x trailing earnings. You do not have much margin for error.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
revenue growth vs. the 27.4% pace
last year's growth was strong. If revenue slips hard from that pace while the multiple stays rich, the valuation argument gets thin fast.
risk
northwest florida demand and pricing
this is the whole story. you want continued signs of healthy housing demand, tourism, leasing activity, and property pricing in the region.
earnings
whether EPS stays near the $0.72 Q4 exit rate
Q4 was the strongest quarter of FY2025. If that strength fades fast, the market will stop paying a premium for the story.
project flow
early 2026 occupancy on new projects
the new Publix and the 18,000-square-foot multi-tenant building are small in absolute terms. They still matter because local lease-up is the proof point.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting normal, not one flashing an unusually strong short-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical market risk. Not a bunker stock. Not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is fine, but it is not doing anything dramatic enough to be the thesis by itself.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
better than chaotic, worse than utility-like. With a developer, you should expect some quarter-to-quarter messiness.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 101 buyers vs. 87 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 49.3M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$56
$93
$69
current price
$75
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $95 (+35% · 9% ann'l return)
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