Johnson & Johnson

JNJ has a 100/100 stability score, yet its 18-month target is $195 while the stock already trades at $214.17.

If you own JNJ, you own safety first and upside second.

jnj

healthcare large cap updated dec 26, 2025
$214.17
market cap ~$516B · 52-week range $141–$215
xvary composite: 91 / 100 · above average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Johnson & Johnson sells medicines and medical devices to doctors, hospitals, and patients around the world.
how it gets paid
Last year Johnson & Johnson made $94.2B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.0% last year. EDGAR lists an unusually large latest-quarter revenue figure of $69.6B and EPS of $8.94.
what just happened
The headline was the 16.33% EPS miss, with Yahoo showing $2.10 versus a $2.51 estimate.
At a glance
A++ balance sheet — fortress balance sheet — as safe as it gets
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
19.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 91/100 — above average
What they do
Johnson & Johnson sells medicines and medical devices to doctors, hospitals, and patients around the world.
After the 2023 Consumer Health spin-off, you are left with two businesses doctors and hospitals already buy: medicines and devices. That shows up in a 36.5% operating margin (money left after running the business) and an 18.0% return on capital (profit made on the cash put in) — so what: JNJ turns scale into cash. The result is a company with a 2.6% dividend yield, 0.6 beta, and 100 earnings predictability, which is finance-speak for your heartbeat staying lower.
healthcare mega-cap dividend pharma medtech
How they make money
$94.2B annual revenue · their business grew +6.0% last year
total revenue
$94.2B
+6.0%
The products that matter
prescription drug portfolio
Pharmaceuticals
part of $94.2B total revenue
this is where the patent-cliff debate lives. The snapshot does not break out drug revenue here, but it does show more than $10B of major-drug exposure that must be replaced.
patent-driven
medical device portfolio
MedTech
part of $94.2B total revenue
devices make the story less binary than a pure drug company. Even without a segment split in this snapshot, you can see the diversification benefit inside a $94.2B business.
second engine
future revenue replacement
Clinical pipeline
must backfill $10B+ exposure
the pipeline matters because the market already knows major drugs face patent loss. When over $10B in annual revenue is exposed, replacement is not optional.
the handoff
Key numbers
36.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after day-to-day costs. So what: JNJ keeps more than $0.36 from each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means how hard each invested dollar works. So what: this business still turns scale into strong profits.
2.6%
dividend yield
Dividend yield means cash paid to you each year as a share of the stock price. So what: you get paid while you wait.
0.6
beta
Beta measures how jumpy a stock is versus the market. So what: JNJ has historically moved much less than the average stock.
Financial health
A++
strength
  • balance sheet grade A++ — the absolute highest — fortress balance sheet
  • risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
  • price stability 100 / 100
  • long-term debt $39.4B (7% of capital)
  • net profit margin 28.0% — keeps 28 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A++ with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in JNJ 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,220.

The index would have given you $13,920.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The headline was the 16.33% EPS miss, with Yahoo showing $2.10 versus a $2.51 estimate.
EDGAR lists an unusually large latest-quarter revenue figure of $69.6B and EPS of $8.94, while Yahoo lists the last reported EPS at $2.10. The clean takeaway is simpler: the quarter created estimate noise, and the market hates noise in a safety stock.
$23.5B
revenue
$2.10
eps
68.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 16.33% miss versus estimates, because this stock is owned for reliability more than surprise upside.
source: EDGAR and Yahoo Finance consensus, 2026

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What could go wrong

JNJ's most specific risk is loss of exclusivity on major drugs led by Stelara. This is not generic pharma hand-wringing. The snapshot already flags more than $10B in annual revenue exposure.

med
patent cliffs and pipeline timing
Key drugs lose patent protection, which opens the door to generics and biosimilars. The business can survive that. The valuation only stays comfortable if the pipeline replaces what rolls off.
Threatens more than $10B in annual revenue from major drugs like Stelara.
med
legal and regulatory overhang
This is one of the rare defensive stocks where legal headlines can still move the story. Litigation and pricing pressure are part of the operating environment, not side quests.
Legal settlements have historically run into the tens of billions, which is large enough to matter even for JNJ.
med
slow growth meets full valuation
The post-spin-off company is projected to grow sales at about 5% annually. That is fine for a quality compounder. It is less fine if you are expecting a rerating on growth alone.
A 19.7x trailing p/e and 0.6 beta tell you the market is already paying for safety.
Put it together and the risk picture is clear: more than $10B of revenue faces exclusivity pressure, while legal costs can still reach the tens-of-billions range. JNJ can absorb a lot. The question is how much of that safety is already in the price.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
revenue growth on a huge base
$94.2B of annual revenue growing 6.0% is the baseline. If that slips toward the 5% area while patent pressure rises, the defensive premium gets harder to defend.
risk
major drug exclusivity losses
The snapshot already points to more than $10B of annual revenue exposure. Watch whether replacement products show up fast enough to keep total growth steady.
earnings
next quarter's quality of growth
Last quarter printed $24.0B in revenue and $2.12 in EPS. The next update needs to show that revenue, not just comparisons, is doing the heavy lifting.
trend
safety premium vs. upside
A 0.6 beta, 2.6% yield, and 19.7x trailing earnings say this stock is bought for steadiness. If growth stays merely steady, expect compounding more than multiple expansion.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
outlook rank 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak: they like the setup, even if nobody is pretending this is a rocket ship.
risk profile
safest 5%
risk rank 1 — lower risk of permanent capital damage than almost any stock in the dataset.
chart momentum
average
momentum rank 3 — the chart is behaving normally. No technical fireworks. No visible collapse either.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management's numbers tend to land where expected. For a company facing patent timing questions, that consistency matters.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

1,937 buyers vs. 1,849 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.7B shares.

source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$151 $239
$214 current price
$195 target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $250 (+15% · 7% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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