How does l grp. make money?

l grp. generates $5.5B in annual revenue (annual revenue · their business grew +14.2% last year).

What is JEF's XVARY composite score?

l grp. (JEF) has an XVARY composite score of 44/100, rated below average. This combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors.

JEF — l grp. stock analysis

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what it is

Jefferies advises on mergers, trades stocks and bonds, and manages a few assets.

how it gets paid

Last year L Grp made $5.5B in revenue. Equities Trading was the main engine at $1.80B, or 33% of sales.

why it's growing
Revenue grew 14.2% last year. Advisory activity drove the print. M&A revenue hit a quarterly record as deal values improved across the market.

what just happened

Jefferies posted $2.05B in revenue, up 22%, and the quarter looked cleaner than the stock chart.

At a glance

B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night

40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

21.5x trailing p/e — priced about right

2.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter

5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about

xvary composite: 44/100 — below average

What they do

Jefferies advises on mergers, trades stocks and bonds, and manages a few assets.

Jefferies wins when deals are hot and markets are moving. Advisory activity hit a quarterly record, and revenue rose 22% to $2.05B. You own a firm where officers and directors hold 20.4% of the common stock, so the people running it still eat their own cooking. Kill the thesis if advisory revenue fades or long-term debt stays stuck at $16.0B, which is 55% of capital.

financials mid-cap investment-banking deal-flow capital-markets

How they make money

$5.5B annual revenue · their business grew +14.2% last year

Advisory & M&A

$1.55B

+24.0%

Equities Trading

$1.80B

+8.0%

Fixed Income

$1.25B

+12.0%

Asset Management & Other

$0.90B

4.0%

The products that matter

advises on mergers and deals

M&A advisory

record quarter · part of $2.05B revenue

Management called M&A advisory fees a quarterly record, which mattered because the latest quarter produced $2.05B in revenue and $1.01 in EPS. That's the segment that tells you whether corporate confidence is back.

the number that mattered

raises debt and equity capital

capital markets underwriting

rebounding activity

Debt underwriting improved in the latest quarter, helping offset weaker spots elsewhere. For you as a shareholder, this matters because underwriting revenue tends to recover quickly when issuance windows reopen.

market-open trade

manages assets and balance-sheet investments

asset management and investments

adds complexity to a $13B stock

This piece makes Jefferies harder to value. The company carries $16.0B in long-term debt and owns a mix of financial assets and other businesses, so reported earnings can reflect both operating momentum and portfolio noise.

hard-to-value layer

Key numbers

$90

18-mo target

That is 42% above $63.3. You need the gap to close, or the stock is just storytelling.

21.5x

forward p/e

You pay 21.5 times earnings for a bank with a 1.55 beta. That is not sleepy pricing.

2.7%

dividend yield

You get paid 2.7% to wait. That is the consolation prize for living with swings.

$16.0B

long-term debt

That is money owed after a year. It equals 55% of capital, so leverage is part of the story.

Financial health

B++

strength

balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
price stability 45 / 100
long-term debt $16.0B (55% of capital)
net profit margin 16.0% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in

B++ — net profit margin looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.

Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in JEF 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,920.

The index would have given you $13,920.

same period. same starting point. JEF beat the market by $7,000.

source: institutional data · total return

What just happened

beat estimates

Jefferies posted $2.05B in revenue, up 22%, and the quarter looked cleaner than the stock chart.

Advisory activity drove the print. M&A revenue hit a quarterly record as deal values improved across the market.

$2.05B

revenue

$1.01

eps

26.0%

operating margin

the number that mattered

Revenue at $2.05B mattered most because it showed the fee engine still had gas.

jefferies financial group delivered a strong fiscal third quarter. (year ended november 30th.) despite this, the stock is down nearly 10% in value since our last review, reflecting some cooling in investor sentiment after a sharp earlier rally.
revenues totaled $2.05 billion, up 22% vs. prior year and well ahead of our estimates, while earnings of $1.01 per share also topped expectations by a wide margin.
advisory activity was the primary driver, with m&a revenues reaching a quarterly record as deal values improved across most sectors.

debt underwriting also rebounded, helping offset more uneven trends in equity underwriting and asset management.
the setup should be more balanced this year.

management continues to point to open capital markets and solid client engagement, particularly in advisory, while underwriting activity is showing gradual improvements as conditions stabilize. we think earnings came in at $2.95 per share on revenues of $7.3 billion for fiscal 2025, with profits expected to rise to $4.10 a share on $8.1 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026. these estimates reflect a more normalized contribution from capital markets activity, rather than a straight-line acceleration from recent highs.
regulatory scrutiny has emerged as a modest overhang.

the sec is seeking information related to jefferies’ exposure through point bonita capital to bankrupt auto-parts supplier first brands, including disclosures to investors and internal controls. while total receivables exposure tied to first brands was sizable at the portfolio level, jefferies’ maximum potential loss appears to be far more limited, with management actively working to protect investor interests. separately, jefferies continues to broaden its earnings base through strategic initiatives, including its pending investment in credit manager hildene, which should provide a steadier stream of contributions over the next few years.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What could go wrong

The #1 risk here is a freeze in M&A and underwriting activity. Jefferies just showed what the business looks like when deals are flowing. The reverse is the real threat.

∘

med

dealmaking slowdown

The latest quarter was powered by record M&A advisory fees and better debt underwriting. If capital markets shut again, the earnings snapback can reverse just as quickly.

puts pressure on the path from $2.95 EPS in fiscal 2025 to $4.10 in fiscal 2026

∘

med

balance-sheet leverage

Long-term debt sits at $16.0B, or 55% of capital. That's manageable with a B++ balance sheet, but it leaves less room for error than the market's best-capitalized financials.

amplifies downside if fee income cools while funding costs or asset marks move the wrong way

∘

med

hard-to-value investments and regulatory noise

The Point Bonita Capital and First Brands issue is a good example. Even if the eventual loss is limited, complex holdings and disclosure questions can create abrupt headline risk.

raises volatility for a stock that already has a 45 / 100 price stability score

A weak deal market plus a leveraged balance sheet would hit the exact things supporting the story today — revenue momentum, EPS recovery, and confidence in the $4.10 fiscal 2026 target.

source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay attention to

metric

EPS follow-through from $1.01

One strong quarter is good. A pattern is better. If EPS starts backing away from the recent recovery, the fiscal 2026 setup gets less convincing fast.

trend

whether advisory stays hot

Management said M&A revenues hit a quarterly record. That is the cleanest read on whether client confidence is improving or fading.

calendar

the next earnings print

You want to see if debt underwriting stays constructive and whether the stronger fee mix carries into the next report.

risk

Point Bonita and First Brands developments

The underlying financial damage may prove limited, but new disclosures or a wider regulatory angle could still move the stock.

Analyst rankings

short-term outlook

bottom 5%

outlook rank 5 — the lowest rating. in human-speak, analysts think this could lag badly in the next 6–12 months.

risk profile

average

risk rank 3 — roughly middle of the pack. Not a bunker stock, not a disaster setup.

chart momentum

below average

momentum rank 4 — price action has weakened. The market is asking for another proof point.

earnings predictability

40 / 100

Earnings predictability means how steady the profit pattern has been. At 40 / 100, expect swings rather than smooth compounding.

source: institutional data

Institutional activity

institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 261 buyers vs. 249 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

source: institutional data

Price targets

3-5 year target range

$51 $129

$63 current price

$90 target midpoint · +42% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+10% · 6% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The deep dive

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competitive moat breakdown

quarterly earnings tracker

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