Start here if you're new
what it is
Johnson Controls sells building controls, service contracts, fire gear, and HVAC equipment for offices, factories, and hospitals.
how it gets paid
Last year Johnson Controls made $23.6B in revenue. Services was the main engine at $7.1B, or 30% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.8% last year. 35.8% gross margin matters because it shows JCI kept 35.8 cents of every dollar after direct costs.
what just happened
Quarterly sales hit $5.8B, and EPS landed at $0.89 versus $0.85 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
45.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 69/100 — average
What they do
Johnson Controls sells building controls, service contracts, fire gear, and HVAC equipment for offices, factories, and hospitals.
Your building does not like being ripped apart. JCI sells the controls first, then sells the service after the install. Services are 30.1% of revenue, and total sales are $23.6B, so the after-sale work is the real engine.
How they make money
$23.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.8% last year
Services
$7.1B
+7.0%
Systems
$6.6B
+5.0%
HVAC equipment
$5.1B
+3.0%
Fire detection
$3.2B
+4.0%
Refrigeration & other
$1.6B
0.0%
The products that matter
building controls and safety systems
Building Automation Systems
$23.6B revenue
this is the entire $23.6B revenue base shown in the current snapshot, and it grew 2.8% last year. your investment case depends on this installed hardware base supporting better software and service economics over time.
core
Key numbers
$149
18-month target
If JCI gets to $149, you are up 24% from $119.96.
$23.6B
annual revenue
This is a $23.6B business, not a small contractor.
17.5%
operating margin
17.5% operating margin means JCI keeps $17.50 after core operating costs on every $100 of sales.
1.4%
dividend yield
The 1.4% dividend pays you to wait, but it is not the main reason to own the stock.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $8.6B (10% of capital)
- net profit margin 11.8% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in JCI 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,890.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Quarterly sales hit $5.8B, and EPS landed at $0.89 versus $0.85 expected.
EDGAR lists $5.8B revenue and 35.8% gross margin. Consensus also shows a $0.89 result, while the filing lists $0.85, so you are probably looking at reported versus adjusted EPS.
$5.8B
revenue
$0.89
eps
35.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
35.8% gross margin matters because it shows JCI kept 35.8 cents of every dollar after direct costs.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is OpenBlue failing to lift growth and mix enough to justify the premium multiple.
med
software expectations are ahead of reported growth
revenue grew 2.8% last year, yet the stock trades at 45.6x trailing earnings. If OpenBlue does not translate installed hardware into faster recurring revenue, the market has less reason to keep paying that kind of multiple.
impact: the valuation can compress even if the core business stays profitable.
med
building spend slows and the whole revenue base feels it
the current snapshot shows one $23.6B revenue base tied to building systems. If retrofit work, upgrades, or new-project activity soften, there is no separate high-growth segment here to hide behind.
impact: slower project activity would pressure the same $23.6B base investors are using to underwrite next year's $25B estimate.
med
the FY2026 bar is high relative to the reported year
FY2025 EPS came in at $2.63, while FY2026 consensus sits at $4.55. That is a big jump. If estimates move down instead of up, the forward multiple stops looking reasonable very quickly.
impact: this is the cleanest way a "fine" business becomes a weaker stock.
when a $23.6B business growing 2.8% trades at 45.6x trailing earnings, the risk is not collapse — it is that the numbers stay merely decent while the valuation stops pretending they are exceptional.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
johnson controls's next earnings date is estimated for wednesday, may 6, 2026. that report matters because the stock is priced for improvement, not just stability.
estimate
fy2026 EPS estimate
currently $4.55. If that number slips, the forward valuation story gets weaker fast.
trend
revenue growth versus the multiple
last year's revenue growth was 2.8%. You want to see that rate move closer to the $25B FY2026 revenue target, not drift sideways.
risk
institutional conviction
institutions were net buyers for three straight quarters, but 609 buyers versus 578 sellers is a lean, not a landslide. If that support fades, sentiment can cool quickly.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think JCI has better near-term price momentum than most stocks.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not chaos either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the tape has been stronger than average, which helps explain why the stock sits near the high end of its $52–$124 range.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
reasonably predictable, but the FY2025 quarterly EPS pattern shows you should still expect uneven prints.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 609 buyers vs. 578 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$96
$202
$120
current price
$149
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $135 (+15% · 5% ann'l return)
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