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what it is
Insmed sells a rare-lung-disease drug today while spending heavily to turn its pipeline into a much bigger business.
how it gets paid
Last year Insmed made $606M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 66.7% last year. Revenue grew 141% vs. prior year to $343M.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $343M, but EPS came in at -$4.89 and missed expectations.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
xvary composite: 34/100 — weak
-$3.40 fy2027 eps est
$2B fy2029 rev est
What they do
Insmed sells a rare-lung-disease drug today while spending heavily to turn its pipeline into a much bigger business.
Right now, the moat is focus. ARIKAYCE made up 100% of 2024 revenue, and it targets a hard-to-treat niche where doctors have few good options. If Brinsupri and the rest of the pipeline work, you get a company that already knows these lung specialists and can sell more into the same offices.
How they make money
$606M
annual revenue · their business grew +66.7% last year
total revenue
$606M
+66.7%
The products that matter
late-stage bronchiectasis therapy
Brensocatib
21% reduction · FDA decision expected H1 2026
It is not described here as part of the current $606M revenue base, but peak sales estimates above $3B are the reason the stock trades on future approval rather than present earnings.
the catalyst
Key numbers
164.5%
r&d intensity
R&D as a percent of product sales means Insmed spent $1.65 on research for every $1.00 of product revenue in 2024. You are paying for future drugs, not current profits.
$2B
2029 revenue goal
That is the 2029 revenue estimate, versus $606M in trailing revenue today, about 3.3 times higher. The stock needs the pipeline to earn that jump.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what: Insmed loses more than $2 for every $1 of sales.
16%
one-day drop
The market already showed you the punishment for disappointment. This stock can lose years of calm in one trading session.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $540M (1% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in INSM 3 years ago → it's now worth $75,010.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $343M, but EPS came in at -$4.89 and missed expectations.
Revenue grew 141% vs. prior year to $343M, while annual revenue reached $606M, up 66.7%. The problem is simple: sales are rising fast, but losses are still huge.
$343M
revenue
$4.89
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The key number was $343M in quarterly revenue, because it shows commercial traction is real even while earnings stay ugly.
-
insmed shares have taken a breather, having retraced approximately 25% in value since our november review.the stock had effectively tripled in price from $70 a share in early june to $210 in early december, so a pause certainly shouldn’t be considered shocking. momentum broke to the downside following the december 18th announcement of disappointing phase ii results for brensocatib as a potential treatment for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. the drug, already fda approved and marketed under the brand name brinsupri as the first treatment for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (nfcb), failed to meet its primary and secondary endpoints in the phase ii clinical trial.
-
the shares declined 16% that day, and have continued to slide further since.insmed likely closed out 2025 with a sharp revenue advance. (fourth-quarter results were due shortly after this report went to press.) indeed, in early january, leadership provided an encouraging business update that included the expectation of 2025 global net product revenues exceeding $600 million.
-
insmed’s first commercial product, arikayce (amikacin liposome inhalation suspension), a treatment for mycobacterium avium complex (mac) lung disease, likely registered over $430 million in revenue in 2025, above company projection, with annual growth exceeding 18%.meanwhile, the company’s second commercial product, brinsupri, in its first full quarter of launch, likely approached $145 million in revenue. at year-end, approximately 4,000 medical professionals had prescribed brinsupri, with roughly 9,000 new patients initiating therapy during the december interim alone.
-
the european commission has approved brinsupri for the treatment of nfcb in patients 12 years of age and older.this paves the way for a launch in the european union during the first half of 2026, followed by anticipated commercial launches in the u.k. and japan later this year, pending approval in each country.
-
insmed stock remains ranked 5 (lowest) for timeliness.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is an H1 2026 brensocatib fda miss.
med
Brensocatib approval risk
The ASPEN Phase 3 result was strong, but a positive trial and an FDA approval are not the same event. This stock is priced around that distinction.
Peak sales estimates above $3B are embedded in the narrative. A delay or rejection would hit the part of the story investors paid up for.
med
Current revenue is not carrying the price tag
INSM has $606M in current revenue against a ~$42B market cap, and analysts still see FY2027 EPS at -$3.40.
When future profits do the heavy lifting, even small estimate cuts can pressure the stock hard.
med
The street is already modeling scale
FY2029 revenue estimates sit at $2B. That is a much bigger business than the current $606M base.
If that revenue path slips, the market may stop treating this as a premium growth biotech and start treating it like a delayed one.
med
The stock is built for violent moves
Price stability is 10 / 100, and the 52-week range runs from $60 to $186. You do not get that profile by accident.
This is a catalyst stock. Expect outsized reactions to regulatory headlines, estimate revisions, and sentiment shifts.
You are paying a ~$42B price tag for $606M of current revenue and still-negative FY2027 EPS. That leaves less room for error than the chart might suggest.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
H1 2026 FDA decision timing
That is the date the valuation is orbiting. Biotech stories can wait for science. Stocks are less patient.
metric
Can revenue grow from $606M toward the $2B FY2029 setup
The street is assuming scale. You want to see operating momentum that starts to justify it.
trend
Institutional buying staying intact
Three straight quarters of net buying helped support the story. If that flips, sentiment can move fast.
risk
Volatility, not just fundamentals
A 10 / 100 price stability score and a $60–$186 range tell you this name will not trade like a slow compounder.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
75 / 100
The operating model is more predictable than you might expect for a biotech. In human-speak, analysts trust the revenue trend more than the stock chart.
risk rank
4
Safer than 20% of stocks means riskier than most. This is not a defensive healthcare name.
price stability
10 / 100
Low stability means big swings. If you own it, you own the catalyst tape too.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 312 buyers vs. 263 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$103
$263
$149
current price
$183
target midpoint · +23% from current · 3-5yr high: $270 (+80% · 16% ann'l return)
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