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what it is
Ingredion turns corn and starches into sweeteners, starches, and other food ingredients.
how it gets paid
Last year Ingredion made $7.2B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 310.9% last year. The 3-cent miss mattered because it came with a 2% revenue drop and weaker syrup demand.
what just happened
Ingredion posted $2.53 EPS against a $2.56 estimate, so the quarter barely missed and revenue still slipped 2%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
10.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Ingredion turns corn and starches into sweeteners, starches, and other food ingredients.
You are buying a business where food and beverage ingredients are 73% of sales, versus 8% from animal nutrition. Recipes and factory setups make leaving painful, so customers do not switch suppliers for fun. The catch is blunt: quarterly revenue was $1.8B and still fell 2%.
How they make money
$7.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +310.9% last year
total revenue
$7.2B
+310.9%
The products that matter
starches, sweeteners, and ingredient processing
Corn-Based Food Ingredients
$7.2B revenue
this $7.2B operation is the whole story right now, and it still produced a 10.1% net profit margin despite softer demand.
entire revenue base
Key numbers
$11.40
fy2026 eps est
$8B
fy2028 rev est
10.0x
trailing p/e
3.0%
dividend yield
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $1.7B (20% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.3% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in INGR 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,180.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Ingredion posted $2.53 EPS against a $2.56 estimate, so the quarter barely missed and revenue still slipped 2%.
Value Line said the September quarter was disappointing, and that matched softer demand for high fructose, glucose, and maltose syrups. Revenue came in at $1.8B, and the market did not reward the small EPS miss.
$1.8B
revenue
$2.56
eps
24.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 3-cent miss mattered because it came with a 2% revenue drop and weaker syrup demand.
-
ingredion posted disappointing september-quarter results (please note that we began using non-gaap accounting in 2025.) the producer of food ingredients and industrial products reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.75, which on an apples-to-apples basis was down 10% vs. prior year.the company produced weaker top-line results over the first three quarters of the year, with the food and industrial ingredients (f&ii) division responsible for most of the shortfall. sales in f&ii were hurt by reduced consumer beverage and food sales in response to rising retail prices.
-
this resulted in less demand for ingredion’s high fructose, glucose, and maltose corn syrups.in addition, production challenges resulting from a fire at the company’s chicago manufacturing plant impacted the division’s performance during the quarter. the weak showing from the f&ii division offset a solid performance from the texture & healthful solutions division, which benefited from double-digit sales increases for clean label ingredient solutions in the u.s./canada and asia-pacific regions.
-
we are less encouraged about the company’s near-term operating performance.in addition to the aforementioned softening consumer demand and operational disruptions, the company faces some political risk.
-
the trump administration, led by u.s.secretary of health and human services robert kennedy jr., is pushing for a shift away from artificial sweeteners (i.e., high fructose syrup) and toward the use of cane sugar in major soft drinks. if the change comes to fruition, it would likely reduce f&ii division sales to the major food and beverage producers. meanwhile, the threat of food and drink tariffs on products produced in mexico and canada could impact ingredion’s supply chain and manufacturing cost structure. this also is a big reason why the company’s expansion plans are focused on the texture & healthful solutions segment.
-
all told, we are reducing both our 2025 and 2026 profit estimates.this good-quality stock doesn’t stand out for either the year-ahead period or the pull to 2028-2030.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is volume pressure in food and industrial ingredients.
high
legacy sweetener demand keeps weakening
reduced consumer beverage and food demand already hurt high fructose, glucose, and maltose corn syrup sales. if that persists, it pressures the company's core revenue base.
this is the main threat to the $7.2B business.
med
manufacturing disruptions
the chicago plant fire hit performance during the quarter. a processor with tight margins can handle only so much operational noise before it shows up in earnings.
quarterly EPS already faded from $2.97 to $2.56 through the year.
med
policy pressure on sweeteners
a shift away from artificial sweeteners toward cane sugar at major beverage customers would hit one of ingredion's most exposed end markets.
it would pressure the older, syrup-heavy part of the portfolio.
low
north american trade friction
possible tariffs involving mexico and canada could raise supply chain and manufacturing costs. this is not theoretical management boilerplate — it was called out as a live concern.
higher costs matter more when revenue already fell 2.8% last year.
a second straight year of revenue pressure after last year's 2.8% decline would keep the 10.0x multiple cheap for a reason.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
core metric
revenue stops shrinking
the business did $7.2B last year and consensus sits around $7B for FY2026. stabilization is the first step in the bull case.
trend
EPS trend reverses
quarterly EPS slid from $2.97 to $2.56 through FY2025. you want to see that staircase flatten or turn back up.
earnings
next update on texture & healthful solutions
management needs the faster-growing specialty ingredients side to keep offsetting softness in legacy syrup categories.
risk
sweetener policy and tariff headlines
pressure on high fructose syrup demand or added trade costs would hit the exact areas already under strain.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock drifting with the market, not one breaking away from it.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. this is the part value investors like.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not confirming a big near-term breakout.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management's numbers are usually reliable. the issue is pace of growth, not wild earnings surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 327 buyers vs. 284 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 59.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$98
$184
$111
current price
$141
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $180 (+60% · 15% ann'l return)
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