Imperial Oil

Imperial trades at $120.41 while the 18-month target sits at $103, a 14% gap in the wrong direction.

If you own Imperial Oil, you own a solid business priced above its near-term scorecard.

imo

energy large cap updated feb 20, 2026
$120.41
market cap ~$57B · 52-week range $59–$114
xvary composite: 67 / 100 · average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Imperial Oil pulls crude from the ground, turns it into fuel and chemicals, and sends cash back to shareholders.
how it gets paid
Last year Imperial Oil made $33.9B in revenue. Upstream crude production was the main engine at $15.8B, or 45% of sales.
what just happened
Imperial's latest quarter came in at $1.44 EPS, a hair below the $1.45 estimate and down from $1.66 a year earlier.
At a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
19.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
Imperial Oil pulls crude from the ground, turns it into fuel and chemicals, and sends cash back to shareholders.
Imperial wins because it is built to make money at multiple steps. It has 2.12 billion barrels of proved reserves, runs 399,000 barrels a day through refineries, and produced 466,000 tonnes of chemicals a day in 2024. Integrated → one company extracts, refines, and sells → so what: when one part is weak, your cash flow has other places to hide.
energy large-cap integrated-oil dividend canada
How they make money
$33.9B annual revenue
Upstream crude production
$15.8B
Downstream refining
$12.3B
Fuels marketing
$5.3B
Chemicals
$1.8B
The products that matter
oil sands extraction
Upstream Production
$23.7B · 438,000 barrels/day
it's the biggest segment at $23.7B of revenue, and 438,000 barrels per day in 2025 was the highest output in more than 30 years. that's the engine, and it's still the most oil-sensitive part of the company.
core profit driver
fuel and chemical manufacturing
Downstream Refining
$6.8B · 90%+ utilization target
this $6.8B segment is the shock absorber. if refinery utilization stays above 90%, the integrated model earns its keep when upstream prices weaken.
margin cushion
product sales and distribution
Chemical & Retail
$3.4B · Esso-linked sales
at $3.4B of revenue, this is not the main event. it is the outlet that helps Imperial move the fuel and lubricants it already produces.
end-market outlet
Key numbers
$103
18-month target
Target price → where the stock is expected to trade in 18 months → so what: it sits $17.41 below today's $120.41 price, or about 14% downside.
22.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Imperial keeps $0.22 from each $1 of sales before interest and taxes.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money put into the business → so what: this is strong for a capital-heavy oil company.
$2.9B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: at 5% of capital, debt is low for a $57B company.
Financial health
A+
strength
  • balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
  • risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
  • price stability 50 / 100
  • long-term debt $2.9B (5% of capital)
  • net profit margin 11.3% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in IMO 3 years ago → it's now worth $23,930.

The index would have given you $13,880.

same period. same starting point. IMO beat the market by $10,050.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Imperial's latest quarter came in at $1.44 EPS, a hair below the $1.45 estimate and down from $1.66 a year earlier.
The quarter was weak enough that management said it required an explanation. Reported net income was $707 million, and the company blamed lower prices and underwhelming volumes.
$1.44
eps
0.69%
vs estimate
$707M
net income
the number that mattered
$1.44 matters because it shows the business is still profitable, but not enough to beat expectations or support a premium price without better volumes.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What could go wrong

the top risk is lower crude prices hitting a business that still gets $23.7B of its $35B revenue from upstream.

!
high
oil price volatility
Last quarter gave you the template: net income fell 41% to $707M as lower upstream prices hit results. When two-thirds of revenue starts with the wellhead, price is not background noise.
most direct risk to earnings
∘
med
production execution at Kearl and other upstream assets
2025 output averaged 438,000 barrels per day, the best in more than 30 years, but management already flagged wet conditions that disrupted mining in some areas. Record output only helps if it repeats.
volume misses would weaken the recovery story
∘
med
refining margin compression
Downstream operating margin fell to 8.8% from 11.2%. If the cushion shrinks again, the integrated label starts sounding better than it looks.
pressure on the segment meant to smooth the cycle
~
low
$2B capital plan and Sarnia execution
The 2026 plan calls for $2B of capital spending while integrating the Sarnia renewable diesel facility. The balance sheet can handle it. The question is whether the returns justify paying 19.6x earnings for an oil stock.
execution risk more than balance sheet risk
With $23.7B of $35B revenue exposed to upstream, one weak crude tape can overpower a lot of good operating discipline.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected April 30, 2026. That is the next read on whether $707M of quarterly net income was a bad quarter or a weaker run-rate.
trend
crude price direction
Upstream generated $23.7B of $35B in revenue. Oil is less a backdrop here than the main variable.
metric
refinery utilization above 90%
Management's 90%+ target is the clearest operating check on whether downstream is still doing its job.
risk
$2B capital plan and Sarnia integration
Imperial can afford the spend. What matters is whether that $2B earns enough to support a stock already above the prior $114 high.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a smooth earnings story. Oil prices still decide too much.
price stability
50 / 100
middle of the pack. steadier than some producers, still not a bunker stock.
balance sheet quality
A+
this is the part analysts trust most. $2.9B of long-term debt gives Imperial room to wait out weak pricing.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 166 buyers vs. 122 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$63 $142
$120 current price
$103 target midpoint · 14% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+35% · 10% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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