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what it is
Ingles runs 198 supermarkets, 114 pharmacies, 108 fuel centers, and 96 shopping centers across six southeastern states.
how it gets paid
Last year Ingles Markets made $5.3B in revenue. Supermarket sales was the main engine at $5.0B, or 94% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.4% last year. Earnings per share came in at $1.48 versus $1.35 expected.
what just happened
Ingles earned $1.48 a share, above the $1.35 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Ingles runs 198 supermarkets, 114 pharmacies, 108 fuel centers, and 96 shopping centers across six southeastern states.
198 supermarkets across 6 states means your grocery trip stays local. 114 pharmacies and 108 fuel centers keep the same customer in the same loop. Owning 96 shopping centers adds rent on top of store traffic.
How they make money
$5.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -5.4% last year
Supermarket sales
$5.0B
5.4%
Shopping center rent
$0.1B
0.0%
Dairy processing
$0.2B
0.0%
The products that matter
operates regional supermarkets
Supermarkets
$5.3B revenue · 198 stores
it is the entire $5.3B business spread across 198 locations. if results improve, it will come from better store productivity and tighter cost control, not a second segment riding in to save the story.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
15.8x
price-to-profit
You pay $15.80 for $1 of trailing profit. That is not cheap for a grocer with sales down 5.4%.
0.9%
dividend yield
Your cash payout is small. The stock is not paying you much to wait.
$499M
debt
That debt equals 28% of capital. It is manageable, but it limits room to stumble.
7.0%
operating margin
Every $100 of sales leaves $7 before interest and taxes.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $499M (28% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.5% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in IMKTA 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,360.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Ingles earned $1.48 a share, above the $1.35 estimate.
Revenue rose 6.6% to $1.37B, and gross margin held at 24.4%. That is a clean beat in a business where sales were expected to be the weak spot.
$1.37B
revenue
$1.48
eps
24.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Earnings per share (profit per share) came in at $1.48 versus $1.35 expected, a 9.6% beat.
-
ingles markets likely turned in a mixed fiscal first quarter. (fiscal 2026 ends september 26th.) comparable-store grocery sales were probably flat to slightly lower, reflecting subdued food pricing and cautious consumer spending, while fuel sales look to remain a headwind to the top line.gross profit likely held near recent levels, supported by pricing discipline and mix, though higher labor, insurance, and utility costs probably weighed on operating income. we expect earnings improved from the year-ago period, with income estimated at about $1.35 per share, versus $0.87, largely reflecting an easier comparison, following severe disruptions from hurricane helene in late september 2024.
-
operating conditions look to remain challenging through 2026.management has cited lingering hurricane-related disruption, with several stores still closed or operating at reduced capacity, and full normalization not expected until later in the year, or beyond.
-
we expect weak comparable-store sales and elevated operating costs to restrain earnings, though favorable comparisons, incremental margin stability, and modest interest expense relief from lower debt could help the bottom-line figure as the year progresses.on balance, we think this should culminate in a partial earnings rebound, to roughly $6.30 per share.
-
over the 2028-2030 period, ingles markets’ business prospects appear steady, but limited.the company is not perusing store expansion, and longer-term earnings progress is expected to depend on expense control, selective remodel spending, and improvements in merchandising and distribution. balance-sheet strengthening should remain a priority, pointing to gradual, incremental gains rather than a material acceleration in growth. still, normalized demand in consumer spending should help boost earnings to a forecasted $11.00 per share out to 2028-2030.
-
we see little reason for most investors to commit capital here.near-term price performance is expected to be middling, consistent with the stock’s average outlook rank (3).
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is thin-margin grocery economics after hurricane-related disruption.
med
2.2% margins mean small mistakes matter
on $5.3B in revenue, ingles keeps only about $0.02 of each sales dollar. higher labor, insurance, utilities, or shrink can erase a lot of profit very quickly.
this pressure sits on the entire operating business because there is no high-margin segment to hide in.
med
storm recovery is still unfinished
management has said several stores remain closed or are running at reduced capacity after hurricane helene. if normalization slips, both revenue and operating leverage stay weaker for longer.
with 198 stores total, even a small cluster of impaired locations matters more than it would at a national chain.
med
there is no expansion story to bail you out
the company is not pursuing store expansion. that means the path to better earnings runs through remodels, merchandising, distribution, and tighter expense control.
if those operational gains stall, the long-term case reverts to a slow regional grocer with limited growth.
med
the rebound is already in the conversation
the current setup assumes EPS improves from $4.40 in FY2025 toward about $6.30 in FY2026. that is a meaningful jump for a business that just posted a 50/100 predictability score.
if revenue stays soft and EPS misses that rebound, the stock stops looking overlooked and starts looking correctly priced.
the risk picture is simple: a thin-margin retailer needs storm recovery, sales stabilization, and an earnings rebound at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
the EPS rebound to $6.30
that estimate is the center of gravity for the stock. if earnings stay closer to $4.40 than $6.30, the thesis weakens fast.
risk
store normalization after helene
management still has stores closed or operating at reduced capacity. you want to see that list get shorter, not longer.
earnings
next report for signs of margin stability
the last full year ended at $4.40 in EPS. the next few quarters need to show that $1.35 latest-quarter print was not a one-off.
trend
revenue back toward $6B
analysts see FY2026 revenue at $6B versus $5.3B now. that gap tells you how much normalization is already assumed.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think the next stretch looks fine, not special.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack on risk, helped by a decent balance sheet and hurt by thin margins.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the chart looks better than the business headlines. welcome to a stock where sentiment can turn before fundamentals fully do.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than the calm stock chart suggests. you should expect a few surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 101 buyers vs. 79 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 13.5M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$55
$99
$70
current price
$77
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+50% · 11% ann'l return)
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