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what it is
IDEAYA makes cancer drugs for patients with specific tumor mutations, then tries to prove the right drug works in the right patient.
how it gets paid
Last year Ideaya Biosciences made $219M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3024.4% last year. $208M matters because it is almost the whole annual revenue base in one quarter.
what just happened
The quarter was all about $208M in revenue, while EPS stayed negative at -$0.34.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$1.29 fy2025 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
72.8% operating margin
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
IDEAYA makes cancer drugs for patients with specific tumor mutations, then tries to prove the right drug works in the right patient.
This is precision medicine. That means matching a drug to a tumor mutation, plain English: narrower patient groups, so what: better odds a trial actually works. IDEAYA has 131 employees and multiple targeted programs, including four ongoing trials for its darovasertib plus crizotinib combination, so your bet is on focused shots instead of spray-and-pray oncology.
How they make money
$219M
annual revenue · their business grew +3024.4% last year
total revenue
$219M
+3024.4%
The products that matter
lead Phase 3 oncology asset
Darovasertib
core value driver · $3B equity story
This is the program the market cares about. The company is valued at roughly $3B while still losing money, so Phase 3 outcome risk sits at the center of the stock.
phase 3
early-stage follow-on pipeline
IDE892
first patient dosed mar 9, 2026
IDE892 is the next catalyst after darovasertib. The first-patient dosing on March 9, 2026 matters because this company needs more than one shot on goal.
phase 1
precision oncology platform
Clinical pipeline
$219M revenue base · still trial-led
The platform story explains why investors pay 13.3x sales today. But with only $219M of revenue and trailing EPS of -$1.31, pipeline depth still has to be proved in data, not slides.
pipeline optionality
Key numbers
$2B
2026 revenue est
This is the bull case in one number. Annual sales are projected at $2B versus $219M trailing, plain English: the market is pricing future trial wins, so what: execution matters more than current revenue.
72.8%
operating margin
Jargon → operating margin → profit after operating costs → so what: IDEAYA still loses money on the core business.
$219M
ttm revenue
That is the actual revenue base today, which is tiny next to a roughly $3B market cap.
0.95
beta
Jargon → beta → how jumpy the stock is versus the market → so what: the business is risky, but the share price has not traded like a meme stock.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $28M (1% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for IDYA right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter was all about $208M in revenue, while EPS stayed negative at -$0.34.
Revenue stayed flat vs. prior year at $208M, while EPS fell to -$0.34 from a positive comparison period. That is biotech in one line: revenue can show up before profits do.
$208M
revenue
$0.34
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
$208M matters because it is almost the whole annual revenue base in one quarter, which tells you the revenue stream is concentrated and event-driven.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Phase 3 failure for darovasertib in uveal melanoma.
med
Darovasertib readout risk
The lead asset is in Phase 3, and the current valuation assumes that program matters. If the data disappoints, the premium multiple will not save you.
At roughly $3B in market value and -$1.31 in trailing EPS, there is not much current-profit support under the stock.
med
Multiple compression
IDYA trades at 13.3x sales versus an 11.3x biotech average and a 3.3x estimated fair multiple. That is a wide gap for a company still proving the business model.
If sentiment cools, valuation downside can come from the multiple alone even before any clinical setback.
med
Cash burn before commercialization
Trailing EPS is -$1.31 and quarterly EPS was -$0.94. That means the pipeline still consumes capital while investors wait for larger revenue to arrive.
Low debt at $28M helps, but it does not remove dilution or funding risk if timelines stretch.
med
Crowded ownership
Institutional ownership is 98.29%. Professional holders can validate the story, but they can also all head for the exit on the same bad headline.
When the float is this institutional, reactions to clinical news can be sharp and fast.
A clinical miss would hit a stock priced at 13.3x sales with trailing EPS still at -$1.31. That is the risk stack in one sentence.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
Darovasertib Phase 3 readout path
Enrollment is complete. That usually means the next major move is driven by data timing, not pipeline storytelling.
pipeline
IDE892 progress after first-patient dosing
The March 9, 2026 dosing milestone is small on revenue today. It matters because it tests whether Ideaya can become more than a one-asset trade.
valuation
Whether 13.3x sales keeps holding
You are already paying a premium to the 11.3x industry average. If sentiment slips, this can rerate lower before fundamentals catch up.
ownership
Institutional positioning
With 98.29% institutional ownership, you want to know whether funds are adding on conviction or trimming into volatility.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
A 55 / 100 score means estimates can move around. In human-speak, analysts do not have a stable earnings machine to model here.
risk rank
2
This system ranks it safer than 80% of stocks. That says more about balance sheet structure than about clinical certainty.
beta
0.95
Beta: 0.95. Historically it has moved roughly with the market. In practice, one trial headline can make that statistic look decorative.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for IDYA is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$35
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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