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what it is
ICF helps governments and companies run energy, health, infrastructure, and public outreach projects that are too messy to do alone.
how it gets paid
Last year Icf International made $1.9B in revenue. Energy programs was the main engine at $0.49B, or 26% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.3% last year. The number that mattered was $1.4 billion in Revenue because it shows how lumpy this business can look when contract timing hits all at.
what just happened
Revenue jumped to $1.4B and EPS reached $4.01, but those numbers sit awkwardly next to a full-year revenue decline.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
17.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.9% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
ICF helps governments and companies run energy, health, infrastructure, and public outreach projects that are too messy to do alone.
ICF wins where paperwork, regulation, and execution collide. You do not swap out a contractor lightly when it is running public health campaigns across 27 EU member states and modernizing state systems under contracts worth nearly $664 million combined. Its 9,300 employees and long client relationships make replacement slow and expensive.
How they make money
$1.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.3% last year
Energy programs
$0.49B
+4.0%
Environment services
$0.32B
3.0%
Infrastructure & disaster recovery
$0.28B
9.0%
Health & social programs
$0.47B
11.0%
Security, civilian & commercial
$0.34B
6.0%
The products that matter
federal and state advisory work
Government Services
$1.1B · 59% of revenue
it's the largest business and the biggest source of volatility. revenue fell 12%, so every pause in appropriations or agency spending shows up fast in your numbers.
budget-exposed
utility and commercial implementation
Commercial Energy & IT
$770M · 41% of revenue
this segment grew 1% while management is aiming for 10%+ next. if that acceleration arrives, it starts to offset the federal drag instead of just softening it.
offset thesis
acquired utility analytics capability
Applied Energy Group
2025 acquisition · $21M contract cited
this is a capability add, not a miracle cure. the strategic bet is buying more utility-facing work while carrying $603M of long-term debt, so execution has to be clean.
integration watch
Key numbers
17.7x
trailing p/e
Valuation → what investors pay for each dollar of profit → so what: you are not paying a hype multiple for a company with established contracts.
10.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what: ICF is profitable, but not so profitable that execution mistakes get hidden.
$603M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: leverage is real and limits flexibility if awards get delayed.
8.9%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from the money tied up in the business → so what: decent, but not elite, so this is a grinder not a miracle machine.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $603M (32% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ICFI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue jumped to $1.4B and EPS reached $4.01, but those numbers sit awkwardly next to a full-year revenue decline.
EDGAR shows the latest quarter at $1.4 billion in revenue, up 207% vs. prior year, with EPS up 213% to $4.01. Reality stayed weird: Wall Street also shows trailing 12-month revenue of about $1.9 billion, down 7.3%, so one huge quarter did not erase a softer year.
$1.4B
revenue
$4.01
eps
37.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $1.4 billion in quarterly revenue because it shows how lumpy this business can look when contract timing hits all at once.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is federal appropriations delays slowing conversion in the $1.1B Government Services segment.
high
Federal budget disruption
Government Services accounts for $1.1B, or 59% of revenue. A repeat of the six-week shutdown pressure lands on the largest segment first.
This single risk reaches more than half of the revenue base.
med
Backlog that converts too slowly
A $3.4B backlog sounds comforting until revenue still falls 7.3%. Backlog is promise. Revenue is proof.
If conversion stays slow, the $1.89B–$1.96B 2026 guide gets harder to defend.
med
Thin net margins
Gross margin improved to 37.2%, but net margin was only 4.89%. Small cost overruns, delayed starts, or weaker utilization still take a visible bite out of earnings.
Even if revenue grows again, EPS can lag if cost discipline does not follow.
low
Acquisition execution
Applied Energy Group adds utility-facing capability, but the company is already carrying $603M in long-term debt. Deals help when they integrate cleanly and win work fast.
A messy integration would pressure margins sooner than it would help revenue.
If federal pauses or contract conversion stays slow, the pressure hits the 59% of revenue tied to government work while a 4.89% net margin leaves little cushion.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected late April 2026. If revenue is not tracking toward the $1.89B–$1.96B guide, the rebound case weakens fast.
backlog
Book-to-bill staying above 1.0
It was 1.19. Above 1.0 means awards still outrun revenue burn. Below 1.0 means the backlog story is losing altitude.
policy
Federal appropriations headlines
Because 59% of revenue comes from Government Services, budget noise is not background noise here.
growth
Commercial Energy & IT acceleration
This segment grew 1%. Management wants 10%+ next. That gap is the offset thesis in one line.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
80 / 100
The company has delivered reasonably consistent earnings patterns. in human-speak, analysts trust the stability of the model more than the current growth rebound.
risk rank
3
Risk rank 3 means middle-of-the-road risk. If you own it, you are not hiding in a bunker stock and you are not holding a disaster candidate either.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ICFI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$94
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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