Start here if you're new
what it is
ICE runs the plumbing that helps traders trade and lenders process mortgages.
how it gets paid
Last year Intercontnl. Exch made $12.6B in revenue. Exchanges was the main engine at $6.7B, or 53% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.5% last year. A dynamic market environment spurred trading revenues and lifted demand for many of the exchange operator’s products and services.
what just happened
ICE missed by 2.84% after EPS came in at $1.71 versus $1.76 expected.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
23.1x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
ICE runs the plumbing that helps traders trade and lenders process mortgages.
You are not buying one business. You are buying a fee machine with 53% of revenue in Exchanges and 22% in Mortgage Technology. That split matters. The larger piece earns money when contracts trade. The smaller piece sells software that lenders keep using. Leaving is painful because your workflows, pricing, and data are already inside ICE's pipes.
How they make money
$12.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.5% last year
Exchanges
$6.7B
+11.0%
Fixed Income and Data Services
$3.2B
+5.0%
Mortgage Technology
$2.8B
+4.0%
The products that matter
operates exchanges and clearinghouses
Exchanges
+11% growth in the first nine months of 2025
this is the core trading infrastructure. Over the first nine months of 2025, exchange revenue advanced 11%, which tells you volatility and activity still feed the machine.
core fee engine
sells pricing, reference, and workflow data
Fixed income and data services
+5% growth in the first nine months of 2025
this side of the business grew 5% in the first nine months of 2025. Slower than exchanges, but usually steadier — exactly what you want from a market-data layer.
recurring revenue
provides mortgage software and technology tools
Mortgage technology
+4% growth in the first nine months of 2025
mortgage technology grew 4% in the first nine months of 2025. Not explosive, but it gives ICE exposure beyond exchange trading volume.
diversifier
Key numbers
39.0%
operating margin
For every $100 in sales, ICE keeps $39 before interest and taxes. That is why a $12.6B business can throw off so much profit.
$186
target price
The 18-month target sits 15% above the current $161.45 price. The market is already paying for part of the upside.
100
earnings predictability
A 100 score means ICE's earnings have been very steady. That helps explain why investors pay up for the stock.
1.2%
dividend yield
You are not buying income here. The payout is small, so most of the return has to come from the stock price.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $17.4B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 32.5% — keeps 32 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ICE 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,380.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
ICE missed by 2.84% after EPS came in at $1.71 versus $1.76 expected.
The latest quarter still showed a large business, with revenue reported at $9.5B. The miss was small, so the real story is stability, not drama.
$3.2B
revenue
$1.71
eps
2.84%
surprise
the number that mattered
EPS of $1.71 mattered most because it missed the $1.76 estimate by 2.84%, and that is the part the market notices first.
-
intercontinental exchange (ice) probably recorded impressive results in the year just ended.a dynamic market environment spurred trading revenues and lifted demand for many of the exchange operator’s products and services.
-
and recurring revenue streams boosted the top line.
-
over the first nine months of 2025, ice registered respective revenue advances of 11%, 5%, and 4% across its exchanges, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology segments.
-
meanwhile, ongoing cost controls and efficiencies aided profits during the past few quarters.
-
in sum, earnings per share likely rose 15% vs. prior year in 2025, on a 5% revenue advance.
source: company earnings report and Yahoo Finance, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top threat is a trading or clearing outage across ICE's core market infrastructure.
high
core exchange outage
ICE sells reliability. A serious technology failure in exchanges or clearing would hit revenue and trust at the same time.
The snapshot ties roughly $8.8B of annual marketplace revenue to this infrastructure.
med
rate-sensitive clearing economics
Interest rate shifts can change the economics around clearing-related balances and fee income. For a business this steady, small drags matter.
The current page points to about $2.5B tied to fee income affected by those dynamics.
med
valuation without much room for error
At 23.1x trailing earnings and only ~15% upside to the $186 midpoint target, you are not buying a neglected stock. You are buying a good one at a fair-to-full price.
If growth cools below the recent 5–7.5% range, the multiple becomes the story.
low
thin segment disclosure in the snapshot
This page gives growth rates for exchanges, data services, and mortgage technology, but not a full revenue split. That makes it harder to see exactly which engine is doing the heavy lifting.
When data is thin, your confidence should be thinner too.
A serious outage would threaten the part of the business tied to roughly $8.8B in marketplace revenue, while slower growth would leave a 23.1x stock looking expensive in a hurry.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
fy2026 EPS estimate
The current number is $7.30. If that starts getting cut back toward $7.00, the "steady compounder" pitch loses altitude.
trend
exchange growth staying ahead
Exchanges grew 11% in the first nine months of 2025. If that pace slips toward the 4–5% areas seen elsewhere, the growth mix gets less exciting.
risk
technology uptime
This is financial infrastructure. One visible outage can do more damage to sentiment than a slightly weak quarter.
calendar
next few quarters of mortgage tech
Mortgage technology grew 4% in the first nine months of 2025. You want to see whether that segment stays a diversifier or just sits there.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — the near-term stock setup is weaker than the business quality. in human-speak: analysts trust ICE more than they trust the next few months of price action.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower risk than almost any stock. This is what institutions buy when they want steadier financial exposure.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not flashing a major signal either way. You are buying the business case, not a breakout pattern.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
Very few companies score this high. Translation: the surprise factor here is usually low, which is exactly why the stock earns a premium multiple.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 787 buyers vs. 707 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.5B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$138
$234
$161
current price
$186
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $195 (+20% · 6% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive