HUBG — Hub Group, Inc. · XVARY Snapshot

XVARY Composite Score

66

/ 100

Average

Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.

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What it is

Hub Group moves freight by rail and truck, then layers logistics services on top.

How it gets paid

Last year Hub made $3.9B in revenue. Intermodal services was the main engine at $2.2B, or 57% of sales.

What just happened

Hub posted $0.49 a share versus $0.47 expected.

At a Glance

A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn

45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

26.9x trailing p/e — priced about right

1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter

8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about

XVARY composite: 66/100 — average

What They Do

Hub Group moves freight by rail and truck, then layers logistics services on top.

You are buying a network, not a logo. Hub gets 57% of revenue from intermodal and 43% from logistics. It owns 50,000 dry containers, 900 refrigerated containers, 2,300 trucks, and 4,300 trailers, so leaving is painful.

transportation mid-cap asset-light intermodal logistics

How They Make Money

$3.9B annual revenue

Intermodal services

$2.2B

Logistics services

$1.7B

Fleet support

$0.0B

The Products That Matter

Moves freight via rail and truck

Intermodal

$2.2B · 57% of sales

it's the biggest piece of the company at $2.2B, and because it is 57% of revenue, this segment is the center of gravity for the whole stock.

57% of revenue

Manages brokerage and logistics

Logistics Services

$1.7B · 43% of sales

this segment generates $1.7B, or 43% of sales. It gives customers a broader service menu, but it still sits inside the same freight cycle.

43% of revenue

Key Numbers

$2.60

fy2027 eps est

$5B

fy2029 rev est

26.9x

trailing p/e

1.0%

dividend yield

Financial Health

A

Strength

balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
price stability 60 / 100
long-term debt $160M (5% of capital)
net profit margin 4.6% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in

A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.

Total Return vs. Market

You invested $10000 in HUBG 3 years ago → it's now worth $11080.

The index would have given you $13880.

same period. same starting point. HUBG trailed the market by $2,800.

source: institutional data · total return

What Just Happened

beat estimates

Hub posted $0.49 a share versus $0.47 expected.

The beat was only $0.02 a share, but that matters when the stock already trades at 26.9x trailing EPS. Revenue sits at $3.9B on a trailing basis, so the company is still a scale business.

$975M

revenue

$0.49

eps

4.26%

surprise

the number that mattered

The $0.02 beat mattered because it showed Hub can still clear a low bar after a $77.0M accounting error.

Hub group stock price has picked up the pace since our mid-november review.
Although the company has struggled operationally of late — earnings in the fourth quarter were likely in line with the previous year’s quarter (down a penny)—hubg equity’s market value has spiked 40% over the past three months.

recent rail consolidation (union pacific and norfolk southern) will likely create considerable growth opportunities. management identified potential to capture 2.5 million incremental intermodal loads in watershed markets, reduce transit times, improve asset utilization, and unlock pricing power in shorter-haul lanes previously dominated by trucking.
Hub’s exclusive partnership with both railroads positions it as the primary beneficiary.

concurrent regulatory enforcement removing capacity through cdl (commercial driver’s license) and english proficiency requirements supports broader freight cycle recovery. what’s more, the recently announced plan to acquire marten transport should complement these efforts.
These factors augur well for the trucker’s operational improvement prospects in 2026.
We expect performance to be strong this year.

contract pricing should improve during spring bid season as regulatory enforcement removes competing capacity from the market.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What Could Go Wrong

The #1 risk is freight demand staying weak.

∘

Med

Cyclical freight volume

Revenue fell 6.1% last year to $3.9B. This is a demand-sensitive business, so a slow freight market hits both pricing and volume.

This risk touches essentially the entire $3.9B revenue base.

∘

Med

Intermodal execution

Intermodal is $2.2B, or 57% of sales. If the rail opportunity does not convert into real loads, the main growth argument weakens fast.

A miss here matters because more than half the company sits in this one segment.

∘

Med

Thin-margin model

A 3.9% net margin leaves little cushion. Small mistakes in pricing, utilization, or costs can travel straight into earnings.

That is why $1.85 in FY2025 EPS and the $2.25 FY2026 estimate matter so much.

A weak freight environment, a missed intermodal ramp, or simple margin slippage would all pressure the same business. When you only keep 3.9 cents on the dollar, you do not need a big operational miss to feel it.

Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay Attention To

Metric

Fy2026 EPS estimate

$2.25 is the rebound number in the market's head. If that slips, the valuation looks a lot less comfortable.

Calendar

Next earnings report

You want to see whether revenue starts moving back toward the $4B expectation and whether EPS keeps building from the $1.85 base.

Trend

Intermodal load ramp

Management talked about a path to 2.5 million incremental loads. The stock does not need all of that. It does need proof the opportunity is real.

Risk

Freight pricing discipline

With a 3.9% net margin, even a small deterioration in pricing or utilization can undo a lot of optimism.

Analyst Rankings

short-term outlook

average

momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts see a normal setup here, not a clear near-term breakout.

risk profile

average

stability score 3. You are not hiding in this stock, but you are not taking meme-stock risk either.

chart momentum

average

technical score 3. The chart says the move has improved, but it is still a plain-vanilla signal.

earnings predictability

45 / 100

earnings predictability is 45 out of 100. Translation: expect more noise here than you would get from a steadier compounder.

Source: institutional data

Institutional Activity

institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 147 buyers vs. 126 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 61.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

Source: institutional data

Price Targets

3-5 year target range

$38 $70

$50 Current price

$54 Target midpoint · +9% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+50% · 12% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The Deep Dive

HUBG

XVARY Deep Dive

hubg

The full analysis is in the works.

What you'll get

DCF valuation model

Bull / base / bear scenarios

Competitive moat breakdown

Quarterly earnings tracker

Operating model projections

Risk matrix with kill criteria

Original price target + conviction

Updated with every earnings

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