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what it is
Hertz rents cars through Hertz, Dollar, Thrifty, and Firefly across 11,200 locations in 160 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Hertz Global made $8.5B in revenue. U.S. rental operations was the main engine at $7.0B, or 82% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 6.0% last year. EPS mattered most because Hertz can survive ugly revenue swings longer than it can survive repeated losses with $17.4B of debt.
what just happened
Revenue hit $6.5B, but EPS still landed at -$1.79 and missed expectations.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
1.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 29/100 — weak
-$0.45 fy2026 eps est
$10B fy2028 rev est
What they do
Hertz rents cars through Hertz, Dollar, Thrifty, and Firefly across 11,200 locations in 160 countries.
This is a scale business. Hertz ran a fleet of about 611,200 vehicles at 12/31/24 across 160 countries, which helps it buy, move, and resell cars at a size smaller rivals struggle to match. Fleet refresh matters here: management said average fleet age fell below 12 months, which cut monthly depreciation per unit. Depreciation → how fast cars lose value → so what: if your cars hold value better, your rental profits stop evaporating.
How they make money
$8.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -6.0% last year
U.S. rental operations
$7.0B
6.0%
International rental operations
$1.5B
6.0%
Franchise and license revenue
$0.0B
flat
Other mobility and ancillary revenue
$0.0B
flat
The products that matter
core rental brand
Hertz
flagship brand · $8.5B company context
this is the main storefront for the whole company. when revenue drops 6.0%, the pressure lands here first because the rest of the stack sits on the same balance sheet.
brand scale
value rental brand
Firefly
discount tier · pricing lever
in a business keeping 2.1% net margin, discount-channel pricing is not a side note. it is one of the first places weak demand shows up.
price-sensitive demand
secondary rental brands
Dollar + Thrifty
fleet utilization lever
multiple brands help segment customers, but the financial reality is still one company carrying $17.4B in long-term debt. brand variety helps demand. it does not solve leverage.
yield management
Key numbers
$17.4B
long-term debt
This matters because the debt stack is about 8.7 times Hertz's roughly $2B market cap. You do not own the top of this capital structure.
92%
debt to capital
Debt to capital → how much of the business is funded by borrowing → so what: almost the whole company is financed with debt.
5/100
price stability
A 5 out of 100 says this stock does not trade like a steady rental business. It trades like a stressed situation with mood swings.
$0.45
FY2026 EPS est
The base 2026 forecast here is still a loss, while Yahoo consensus shows +$0.70. That $1.15 gap tells you the story is not settled.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $17.4B (92% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.1% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 24% — $0.24 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for HTZ right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $6.5B, but EPS still landed at -$1.79 and missed expectations.
The company reported its first quarterly profit in over two years in recent developments, but the reported latest-quarter figures you have here still show earnings pressure. Revenue rebounded hard vs. prior year, while profit did not.
$6.5B
revenue
$1.79
eps
20.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
EPS mattered most because Hertz can survive ugly revenue swings longer than it can survive repeated losses with $17.4B of debt.
-
hertz global holdings reported its first quarterly profit in over two years.this progress, marked by $184 million in net income, follows a period of heavy losses and directly validates the company’s modernization strategy.
-
by aggressively refreshing its fleet to an average age of under 12 months, hertz has reduced monthly depreciation per unit by 49% and driven fleet utilization to a post2018 high of 84%.furthermore, expanding into high-margin retail sales channels via amazon and cox automotive is transforming the company from a traditional rental provider into ‘‘a used car factory that rents to millions of loyal customers who test drive our cars every day.’’ this change diversifies revenue and creates a durable competitive advantage.
-
while the earnings beat provided the initial spark, the stock’s sustained decline through late 2025 was driven by a wave of external pressures.
-
in mid-november, the market began pricing in the full severity of the record-breaking 40-day federal government shutdown, which continues to inflict pain across the travel sector even after the reopening.
-
this macroeconomic shock coincided with major wall street institutions maintaining downbeat ratings, warning that third-quarter profits were an outlier, overshadowed by negative free cash flow of $2.7 billion and a staggering $18.4 billion debt load.these structural red flags led investors to conclude that the company’s pivot was not yet sufficient to offset a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and waning consumer sentiment.
source: company filings and earnings data, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is fleet depreciation and residual value pressure. when you have $17.4B in long-term debt and only a 2.1% net margin, a bad call on vehicle values stops being an accounting issue and becomes the equity story.
high
EV residual value and depreciation risk
this is already part of the public HTZ narrative. if used-vehicle values weaken again, the fleet gets marked down while a 2.1% net margin leaves little cushion.
pressure point: $17.4B long-term debt against $8.5B revenue
high
leverage and refinancing pressure
92% debt as a share of capital is manageable only if operations cooperate. revenue declined 6.0% last year, so the balance sheet does not get the luxury of weak execution.
pressure point: debt equals 92% of capital
med
litigation and regulatory overhang
the sept. 2025 antitrust settlement was worth $154M, but it also kept the legal story visible. for a cleaner setup, hertz needs fewer side plots and better core economics.
pressure point: $154M settlement headline risk
med
pricing pressure in a commoditized business
there is no moat. if rental pricing softens while utilization disappoints, the business does not have room to absorb much pain. 1.5% return on capital says the economics are already stretched.
pressure point: 1.5% return on capital
with revenue down 6.0%, debt at 92% of capital, and a 2.1% net margin, hertz does not need a disaster to disappoint you. it only needs another bad year of fleet math.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
the next print needs to show loss repair
fy2026 EPS is still estimated at -$0.45. if that number moves lower, the recovery timeline is slipping. if it moves toward break-even, the story gets more credible.
metric
net margin above survival mode
2.1% net margin is too thin for a leveraged fleet business. you want to see expansion here, not a business that stays one bad quarter away from trouble.
risk
fleet values and depreciation chatter
the market keeps bringing up EV residual value risk because it matters. if used-vehicle pricing weakens, HTZ feels it quickly.
trend
institutional buying that sticks
140 buyers versus 117 sellers in 3q2025 is constructive. what matters next is whether that support holds if operating numbers stay soft.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
outlook rank 5 — the lowest rating — significant underperformance expected.
risk profile
below average
risk rank 4 — more volatile than most — brace for bigger swings.
chart momentum
average
momentum rank 3 — the stock is moving with the broader market, no unusual signal.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 140 buyers vs. 117 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$2
$7
$5
current price
$4
target midpoint · 24% from current · 3-5yr high: $11 (+110% · 20% ann'l return)
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