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what it is
Heartland Express moves time-sensitive freight on short and medium truck routes, mostly east of the Rockies.
how it gets paid
Last year Heartland Express made $806M in revenue. Dry van truckload was the main engine at $403M, or 50% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 23.1% last year. With workers returning to their offices, shipping demand has fallen back to more normal levels, but capacity remains out of balance.
what just happened
Heartland reported EPS of -$0.24, far below the -$0.07 consensus, as the freight slump kept margins under water.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
53.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
Heartland Express moves time-sensitive freight on short and medium truck routes, mostly east of the Rockies.
This business wins when shippers need freight moved fast and without drama. Heartland's average haul is under 400 miles, which keeps trucks turning faster and customers sticky when their loads are time-sensitive. The balance sheet still matters too: long-term debt is $154 million, or 16% of capital, which gives you more room than a heavily levered trucker when rates stay ugly.
How they make money
$806M
annual revenue · their business grew -23.1% last year
Dry van truckload
$403M
26.0%
Temperature-controlled truckload
$121M
18.0%
Regional short-haul services
$161M
22.0%
Owner-operator capacity services
$81M
15.0%
Fuel surcharge and other
$40M
30.0%
The products that matter
general freight hauling
Dry Van Truckload
~$645M · roughly 80% of revenue
it's about $645M of a roughly $806M revenue base, so pricing in standard truckload is still the whole story.
core
refrigerated freight hauling
Temperature-Controlled
~$161M · roughly 20% of revenue
this business contributes about $161M in revenue after the 2022 CFI refrigerated acquisition, but it's still too small to offset a 23% drop in dry van.
added via acquisition
Key numbers
7.1%
operating margin
Jargon: operating margin → profit from the core business → so what: Heartland is still losing money on the actual hauling.
53.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying a premium multiple for a company with trailing EPS of -$0.44 and falling revenue. That is a weird setup.
$806M
annual revenue
EDGAR shows revenue fell 23.1% vs. prior year. Demand did not just cool. It backed up.
40.7%
insider ownership
Management and directors own 40.7% of the stock, per the 2025 proxy. They feel the pain with you.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $154M (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.9% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HTLD 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,230.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Heartland reported EPS of -$0.24, far below the -$0.07 consensus, as the freight slump kept margins under water.
Yahoo Finance consensus shows the company missed estimates by 242.86%. Value Line says the broader problem is simple: too much trucking capacity after the pandemic surge in online orders.
$202M
revenue
$0.42
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the -242.86% earnings miss, because it tells you the recovery is taking longer than analysts expected.
-
revenues likely fell for the third consecutive year in 2025, and profits again proved elusive.the trucking industry is mired in an unusually deep and long recession that shows few signs of easing.
-
the trouble stems back to the covid pandemic.
-
at that time, people were stuck at home and took to ordering everything online.
-
this led to a sharp surge in shipping demand, which in turn prompted truckers to add significant capacity.with workers returning to their offices, shipping demand has fallen back to more normal levels, but capacity remains out of balance.
-
a leaner more efficient business should produce healthy margins once demand returns.heartland operates four trucking companies, two of them were purchased in 2022 just as the market was peaking.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is truckload rate pressure in dry van freight.
high
dry van pricing stays weak
dry van is about $645M of revenue, or roughly 80% of the business, and it fell 23% last year.
if the core book does not stabilize, the loss cycle can drag on even with a decent balance sheet.
med
the CFI refrigerated integration disappoints
the refrigerated operation added about $161M of revenue after the 2022 acquisition, and integration work is still part of the story.
if that business fails to hold margins or volumes, the diversification case gets thinner fast.
high
cost inflation outruns rate recovery
with a 1.7% net margin, there is very little cushion for fuel, labor, maintenance, or equipment costs.
thin margins mean even small cost pressure can keep EPS negative.
low
the dividend stops being a signal of confidence
HTLD still pays a $0.02 quarterly dividend despite losing $0.67 per share last year.
a cut would not break the business, but it would remove one of the few visible signs that management sees the downturn as temporary.
a weak freight market already turned roughly $806M of revenue into a $19.4M loss. that's how little room this model has for error.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
q1 2026 earnings
next earnings are expected april 29, 2026. you want one thing: evidence that rate pressure is easing.
trend
dry van revenue trend
after a 23% drop to about $645M, stabilization in the core dry van book matters more than almost anything else on this page.
risk
dividend declaration
the next $0.02 quarterly dividend will tell you whether management still thinks the downturn is survivable without changing the shareholder-return story.
metric
net margin above 1.7%
the company already keeps less than 2 cents of each revenue dollar. any improvement here matters more than headline volume.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this could lag from here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not a bunker stock, not a meltdown candidate either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart has improved from the lows, but the street still sees weak relative strength.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
earnings are hard to model because freight cycles can move fast and margins are thin.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
87 buyers vs. 90 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 38.0M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$5
$13
$11
current price
$9
target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $17 (+60% · 12% ann'l return)
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