Start here if you're new
what it is
Hershey sells chocolate, candy, and snacks as the largest U.S. producer in the aisle.
how it gets paid
Last year Hsy made $11.7B in revenue. Chocolate bars and minis was the main engine at $5.1B, or 44% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.4% last year. The $1.58 print mattered because it was $0.90 below the $2.48 estimate.
what just happened
Hershey missed with $1.58 EPS as revenue reached $8.6B and gross margin landed at 32.3%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
34.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
23.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Hershey sells chocolate, candy, and snacks as the largest U.S. producer in the aisle.
Hershey is the largest U.S. producer of chocolate and nonchocolate confectionery. McLane accounted for 27.0% of 2024 sales, so one customer already carries a huge chunk of the load. You are buying shelf space (store placement) that keeps candy in front of shoppers and repeat purchases flowing.
How they make money
$11.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.4% last year
Chocolate bars and minis
$5.1B
+4.0%
Peanut butter candy
$2.9B
+5.0%
Mint and gum
$1.7B
+0.0%
Salty snacks
$1.2B
+8.0%
International and other
$0.8B
+2.0%
The products that matter
manufactures chocolate and confectionery
Chocolate & Confectionery
$11.7B revenue · entire business
the source page is thin here, and pretending otherwise would be fake precision. this one line is the whole company. it still grew 4.4% last year, but it also means cost pressure has nowhere to hide.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$180.77
share price
You pay $180.77 today. That is $13.77 above the $167 target, so the market already expects a lot.
$167
target
The target sits 8% below the current price. That leaves less room for a soft quarter.
34.4x
trailing p/e
You are paying 34.4 times last year’s earnings. That is rich for a candy maker with a 12.3% operating margin.
3.1%
dividend yield
The dividend pays 3.1%. That helps, but it does not erase a 34.4x multiple.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $4.7B (11% of capital)
- net profit margin 16.7% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 40% — $0.40 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HSY 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,400.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Hershey missed with $1.58 EPS as revenue reached $8.6B and gross margin landed at 32.3%.
The quarter was big on revenue and light on earnings. Actual EPS of $1.58 trailed the $2.48 estimate by 36.29%, which says pricing power is not a free pass.
$2.9B
revenue
$1.58
eps
32.3%
gross margin
the miss
The $1.58 print mattered because it was $0.90 below the $2.48 estimate, or 36.29% short.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
hershey's risk list starts with cocoa inflation hitting chocolate margins and stays there longer than you'd like. this page only has one revenue line for a reason: the cost problem runs through the core business, not a side pocket.
high
cocoa cost shock
This is an $11.7B chocolate business with a 12.0% net margin. When cocoa spikes, the whole model feels it.
hits the main revenue engine directly and pressures profitability fast.
med
pricing stops covering the problem
Brand power helps, but 34.4x earnings assumes pricing can protect margins without pushing consumers away too hard.
puts the $7.15 FY2026 EPS recovery case at risk.
med
valuation compression
The stock trades at $180.77 while the recorded street midpoint is $167. If estimates stall, the multiple has room to do the shrinking for you.
the stock already sits above the recorded midpoint target.
If you want the clean version, here it is: a cocoa spike does not hit a side segment here. It runs through essentially the whole business and makes a 34.4x multiple much harder to defend.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
track fy2026 eps estimates
currently $7.15 versus $5.25 in FY2025. that recovery gap is the story the stock is trading on.
risk
watch cocoa costs
the top risk runs through the main business, not a small division you can ignore.
trend
watch revenue growth versus the multiple
4.4% sales growth against a 34.4x trailing p/e is the central tension in the stock.
calendar
watch the next earnings print for repeatability
the latest quarter delivered $2.48 EPS. you want proof that strength was not just a seasonal spike doing half the year's work.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — neutral setup. in human-speak, nobody sees a major short-term edge.
balance-sheet risk
lower
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. the risk is cocoa and valuation, not financial distress.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect better price action than most stocks in the year ahead.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
these numbers tend to be steady. that matters when you own a staples stock for reliability rather than surprise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 629 buyers vs. 531 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$113
$220
$181
current price
$167
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $285 (+60% · 14% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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