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what it is
Henry Schein supplies dentists, doctors, and clinics with the products, software, and specialty services that keep offices running.
how it gets paid
Last year Henry Schein made $13.2B in revenue. Global Distribution and Value-Added Services was the main engine at $11.14B, or 84% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.0% last year. Management said the September-period tallies beat internal targets and pushed full-year adjusted earnings guidance higher.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $3.44B and EPS came in at $1.34, just ahead of the $1.32 consensus.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
15.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
Henry Schein supplies dentists, doctors, and clinics with the products, software, and specialty services that keep offices running.
Henry Schein serves more than 1 million customers, mostly small office-based practices that need constant resupply. Distribution moat (dense logistics network → fast, repeat delivery → customers stick because running out is expensive) is the whole trick here. You are not betting on a miracle product. You are betting that busy dental and medical offices keep reordering from the same middleman.
How they make money
$13.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.0% last year
Global Distribution and Value-Added Services
$11.14B
+3.5%
Global Specialty Services
$1.55B
+6.0%
Global Technology
$0.43B
+5.0%
Other Healthcare Services
$0.08B
+4.0%
The products that matter
dental and medical supply distribution
Healthcare Distribution
~$11.1B · ~84% of ~$13.2B FY
This matches Global Distribution and Value-Added Services on the revenue bridge — the dominant line, not the whole $13.2B (specialty services, technology, and other healthcare lines make up the rest).
core segment
Key numbers
15.7x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → you are not paying a luxury multiple for a company projected to earn $5.60 a share by 2027.
9.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → this is decent for distribution, but it also shows how little room there is for sloppiness.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from the money tied up in the business → Henry Schein is productive, just not elite.
$2.2B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money that must be paid back → manageable at 19% of capital, but still a leash if growth stalls.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $2.2B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.7% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HSIC 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,070.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $3.44B and EPS came in at $1.34, just ahead of the $1.32 consensus.
Management said the September-period tallies beat internal targets and pushed full-year adjusted earnings guidance higher. Full-year 2025 EPS reached $4.95 versus $3.05 in 2024.
$3.44B
revenue (Q)
$1.34
eps (Q)
31.2%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
Gross margin held at 31.2%, which matters because a distributor with sub-10% operating margins lives or dies by tiny spread changes.
-
henry schein likely concluded 2025 on solid footing.third-quarter results came in ahead of our expectations, fueled by benefits from efficiency initiatives and stronger-than-anticipated demand across its core healthcare distribution business.
-
the september-period tallies also surpassed internal targets, prompting leadership to up its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $4.88-$4.96 a share (previously $4.80-$4.94), implying annual growth of 3%-5%.
-
fourth-quarter results are scheduled to be released on february 24th.efficiency initiatives are gaining traction and should help pave the way for an earnings acceleration in 2026. schein implemented a multi-year restructuring strategy in 2024 aimed at improving its cost structure and creating a leaner more-streamlined organization. the plan is expected to deliver over $200 million of incremental operating income in the coming years, via cost reductions, pricing initiatives, and shifting mix toward highermargin, higher-growth businesses.
-
all in all, our model calls for adjusted earnings to hit $5.25 a share in 2026, representing growth of 6% versus our 2025 estimate.
-
a leadership change is on the horizon.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
HSIC is not a mystery. The risk is simple: a $13.2B distributor earning a 4.5% net margin does not have much room for a restructuring miss. If the $200M plan slips, most of the upside story slips with it.
med
restructuring execution
Management says the 2024 restructuring should create more than $200M of incremental operating income. That's the main bridge between $4.95 of FY2025 adjusted EPS and the $5.25 expected for FY2026.
If those savings show up late or lighter than promised, a 9.0% operating margin business stays a 9.0% operating margin business. The re-rating case shrinks fast.
med
thin-margin economics
HSIC generated $13.2B in revenue but only a 4.5% net margin. That gap is the business. It also means pricing pressure, cost creep, or weaker mix hits earnings harder than the revenue line suggests.
Scale helps, but thin margins leave less room for mistakes. If you own the stock, you are betting on discipline as much as demand.
med
institutional patience wearing thin
Institutions were net sellers for 3 straight quarters, including 214 buyers versus 292 sellers in 3Q2025. That is not a mass exit. It is a wait-and-see signal.
If large holders keep selling even as management talks up the plan, you have to ask whether the Street sees this as fairly priced rather than mispriced.
What would make us more cautious: 2026 EPS drifting away from $5.25, or the margin story staying pinned near 9.0% operating margin. Without improvement there, you are left with a stable business and a limited reason for the multiple to move.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
restructuring dollars realized
The company is targeting more than $200M of incremental operating income. This is the number tied most directly to the thesis.
calendar
next earnings read-through
The next report needs to show whether $4.95 of FY2025 adjusted EPS is a floor for 2026 or just a plateau.
trend
2026 EPS estimate direction
The current 2026 estimate is $5.25. Revisions up would suggest the savings plan is landing. Revisions down would suggest the timeline is stretching.
risk
institutional selling streak
Three straight quarters of net selling is enough to matter. You want to see that flow stabilize if the operating story gets better.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a normal stock here, not a near-term breakout and not a falling knife.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. You are not taking biotech-style risk to own this name.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the tape has improved faster than the operating story. Welcome to a stock the market wants to believe before it fully trusts.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
The numbers are steady enough to follow, but not steady enough to treat guidance as self-fulfilling.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 214 buyers vs. 292 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$64
$119
$78
current price
$92
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $120 (+55% · 11% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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