Start here if you're new
what it is
Robinhood is a phone-first brokerage that sells you stock, options, crypto, margin, and cash products in one app.
how it gets paid
Last year Robinhood Markets made $4.5B in revenue.
what just happened
Robinhood's latest quarter showed $0.66 EPS versus a $0.80 estimate, a reminder that this stock gets graded on perfection.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
21.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
$2.90 fy2026 eps est
What they do
Robinhood is a phone-first brokerage that sells you stock, options, crypto, margin, and cash products in one app.
Robinhood made trading feel like checking your messages. Gold had 3.88 million subscribers before year-end, which means millions already pay for more than free trades. Once your cash, margin, crypto, and retirement money sit in one app, leaving gets annoying fast.
How they make money
$4.5B
annual revenue · revenue was roughly flat last year
total revenue
$4.5B
+0.0%
The products that matter
trading and transaction monetization
Transaction-Based Revenue
$4.5B company revenue base
the source page does not break out the exact mix, but trading activity still sits under a business that produced $4.5B in annual revenue. that makes user engagement the center of gravity whether management likes the label or not.
core engine
paid membership tier
Robinhood Gold
3.88M subscribers
Gold had 3.88M subscribers in the last reported period. that gives you a recurring revenue layer and a closer customer relationship than pure trading-only apps usually get.
recurring revenue
event-driven trading engagement
Prediction Markets
2.5B october contracts
the platform processed 2.5B prediction market contracts in october alone, above the entire third-quarter total. that is a reminder that Robinhood still knows how to manufacture bursts of activity when it finds the right product loop.
new growth lever
Key numbers
55.6x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price versus past earnings → so what: you are paying today for years of clean execution.
45.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: this app throws off real earnings, not just downloads.
21.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → so what: Robinhood is converting growth into decent economics.
$9B
2028 revenue
Revenue estimate → future sales target → so what: the bull case needs sales to roughly double from $4.5B.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 40.0% — keeps 40 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for HOOD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Robinhood's latest quarter showed $0.66 EPS versus a $0.80 estimate, a reminder that this stock gets graded on perfection.
Consensus showed a -17.5% earnings miss on about $1.28B of revenue versus a $1.32B estimate. Separate source data in the packet shows higher quarterly revenue and EPS, so the takeaway is simple: the business is strong, but the reported quarter did not clear the bar investors wanted.
$1.28B
revenue
$0.66
eps
45.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The miss versus the $0.80 estimate mattered more than the absolute profit, because a 55.6x earnings stock gets punished for even small slips.
-
robinhood likely delivered solid fourth-quarter results.revenue growth was driven by higher transaction-based revenues as trading activity stayed elevated, especially in prediction markets. the company processed 2.5 billion prediction market contracts in october, surpassing the third-quarter total.
-
gold subscribers likely increased from 3.88 million, with adoption rates rising rapidly.assets under management likely expanded from the $333 billion reported in september, driven by new net deposits and asset price appreciation.
-
we’re estimating a profit of $0.80 per share for the december quarter.
-
we expect a strong performance through 2026.the platform should benefit from diversified revenue, with 11 business lines now generating over $100 million each annually. prediction markets reached this level quickly and should contribute more as sports and economics categories expand. the bitstamp acquisition adds institutional crypto capabilities, while tradepmr brings approximately $40 billion in platform assets. international growth in asia and europe, including stock tokens covering hundreds of public companies, should boost results.
-
we project 2026 earnings per share of $2.90.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is payment for order flow restrictions because that would hit the revenue engine, not just investor sentiment.
high
payment for order flow restrictions
Robinhood still monetizes customer activity through order routing economics. if regulators cut into that structure, the business does not lose a side stream. it loses one of the reasons 51.0% operating margins exist at all.
this would pressure the $4.5B revenue base and challenge the premium attached to a roughly $110B valuation.
med
retail activity cooling off
this business still gets louder when markets, crypto, or event contracts get exciting. if activity slows, the company has fewer places to hide than the app design suggests.
flat revenue at $4.5B already shows you what the model looks like when top-line momentum pauses.
med
expectations outrunning execution
55.6x trailing earnings and a $122 stock price leave little room for a merely decent year. the valuation already leans on $2.90 EPS and $6B revenue showing up next.
if results stay closer to $2.20 EPS and $4.5B revenue, multiple compression can do damage before the business itself breaks.
med
share-price volatility changing the experience
a $10–$154 52-week range and a 5 / 100 price stability score tell you this stock can move violently even when the long-term thesis has not changed.
if you own it, the swings do not just raise risk. they raise the odds you get shaken out before the thesis plays out.
a forced change to payment for order flow would pressure the economics supporting a $4.5B revenue base, a 51.0% operating margin, and a valuation of roughly $110B.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the jump from $4.5B to $6B
that is the revenue leap implied by the FY2026 estimate. if growth lands well short of that, the multiple stops looking ambitious and starts looking fragile.
risk
payment for order flow headlines
this is still the cleanest kill switch in the story. any direct limits on order-routing economics would matter fast.
trend
Gold and platform asset growth
3.88M Gold subscribers and $333B in platform assets are the steadier part of the story. you want those numbers climbing even if trading activity cools off.
cadence
quarterly EPS progression
$0.37, $0.42, $0.61, $0.80. if that staircase flattens, you will know the easy margin gains are behind it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4. in human-speak: analysts think near-term upside looks thinner after the stock's huge move.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means middle-of-the-pack business risk, even if the stock itself trades with far more drama.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 means the chart still looks stronger than most stocks. the chart says momentum. the valuation says prove it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 812 buyers vs. 466 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$64
$220
$122
current price
$142
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $140 (+15% · 4% ann'l return)
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