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what it is
Hologic sells women’s health tests, surgical tools, and imaging systems to hospitals and doctors.
how it gets paid
Last year Hologic made $4.1B in revenue. Diagnostics was the main engine at $1.68B, or 41% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew ~1.7% last year (FY). A ~3% vs. prior year line is the cited quarter, not the full-year rate. Gross margin was ~56.0% in that window.
what just happened
Hologic's $0.79 EPS missed the $1.10 estimate by 28.18% while revenue reached $1.0B.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
17.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$4.80 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 69/100 — average
What they do
Hologic sells women’s health tests, surgical tools, and imaging systems to hospitals and doctors.
Hologic lives where doctors repeat themselves. Diagnostics, meaning lab tests, was 41% of 2024 revenue, and Services and Other was 19%. That mix matters because your doctor keeps ordering repeat work, while the installed machines are already in the room.
How they make money
$4.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.7% last year
Diagnostics
$1.68B
Breast Health
$0.94B
GYN Surgical
$0.66B
Services and Other
$0.78B
Skeletal Health
$0.04B
The products that matter
molecular diagnostic testing
Aptima
FDA label expanded
aptima matters because diagnostics generated $454.1M in the latest quarter, with core u.s. molecular diagnostics driving the increase.
diagnostics
breast imaging systems
Mammography Systems
core installed base
these systems help support a $4.1B business running at 56.0% gross margin, which is exactly why the installed base matters.
core
gyn surgical tools
Surgical Solutions
faster than company average
surgical posted mid-single-digit growth in Q4 FY2025 while full-year company revenue grew just 1.7%.
relative bright spot
Key numbers
$75.19
share price
You are $3.81 below the $79 takeout price and $5.81 below the $81 VL target. That is not much rope.
17.7x
trailing p/e
You pay 17.7 times trailing earnings. That is what a stable, not cheap, business costs.
17.4%
operating margin
Hologic keeps 17.4 cents of every sales dollar before taxes and financing. That gives the stock real earnings, not just sales.
14.0%
return on capital
A 14.0% return on capital means the business earns 14 cents for every dollar it puts to work. That is solid, not heroic.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $2.5B (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 21.9% — keeps 22 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HOLX 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,070.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Hologic's $0.79 EPS missed the $1.10 estimate by 28.18% while revenue reached $1.0B.
Revenue rose 3% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 56.0%. The miss was bigger than the sales growth.
$1.0B
quarter revenue
$0.79
eps
56.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.79 EPS print mattered because it was 28.18% below the $1.10 estimate, which is a clean sign that execution was softer than the top line.
-
hologic stock is edging closer in value toward its proposed takeout price.recall that in october of last year, the company agreed to be acquired by blackstone and tpg in a transaction valued at up to $79 per share.
-
at the recent quotation, holx stock trades at an approximate 5% discount to the maximum proposed takeout price.we continue to anticipate the deal closing during the first half of 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
-
the company delivered respectable fourth-quarter results. (fiscal years end september 30th.) sales of $1.049 billion increased 5.4% vs. prior year in constant currency, while non-gaap earnings per share of $1.13 represented an 11.9% improvement over the prior-year period.
-
non-gaap operating margin registered a robust 31.2%, evidencing increased leverage on operating expenses from accompanying revenue gains.
-
diagnostics revenue of $454.1 million increased 1.5% in constant currency, primarily driven by higher core u.s. molecular diagnostics sales.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the blackstone–tpg deal not closing. that is the whole event-driven setup.
high
deal break risk
the agreed price is $79 per share, but the stock still trades at $75.19 because investors do not fully trust the closing path yet. if the merger fails, the market has to go back to valuing hologic as a standalone business growing 1.7% a year.
that puts the current 5% spread at risk — and removes the deal premium entirely.
med
regulatory delay
china approved the transaction on february 10, 2026, but the process is not finished until all required jurisdictions are clear. delays matter because a 5% spread gets less attractive the longer your capital sits still.
same payoff, longer wait, lower annualized return.
med
slow standalone growth
full-year revenue was $4.1B, up just 1.7%. Q4 improved, but if that improvement fades, investors are left with a stable business that may not deserve much multiple expansion.
17.7x earnings can look less cheap when the top line is barely moving.
med
margin normalization
non-gaap operating margin hit 31.2%, which is strong. if revenue growth stays muted and expense leverage reverses, that margin becomes harder to defend.
profit growth can slow fast when a 31.2% margin starts moving the wrong way.
the spread is only about 5%, so your upside is capped by the $79 deal price while your downside depends on the market re-rating a 1.7%-growth medtech business.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
deal spread
the gap to $79
with HOLX at $75.19 and the agreed price at $79, the spread is telling you what the market thinks about timing and closing risk in real time.
calendar
remaining deal approvals
china is already through. what matters next is the final sequence of shareholder and regulatory sign-offs needed to actually finish the transaction.
trend
whether Q4 was a real re-acceleration
Q4 revenue grew 5.4% in constant currency after a 1.7% full-year result. if that improvement sticks, the standalone story gets more credible.
metric
31.2% operating margin
private-equity buyers love durable margins. if this number slips while growth stays slow, the market may stop giving hologic the benefit of the doubt.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
50 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not view this as a perfectly smooth earnings story. the deal may be cleaner than the operating outlook.
risk rank
2
safer than about 80% of stocks on underlying business risk. event risk is the bigger issue here.
price stability
90 / 100
the stock has been relatively stable. that is what mature medtech and merger spreads usually look like.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
352 buyers vs. 308 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$61
$100
$75
current price
$81
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $125 (+65% · 14% ann'l return)
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