Start here if you're new
what it is
Harley sells heavyweight motorcycles, parts, gear, and loans to the people and dealers buying them.
how it gets paid
Last year Harley-Davidson made $3.6B in revenue. Heavyweight motorcycles was the main engine at $2.30B, or 64% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 13.1% last year. The 13.1% full-year revenue decline matters more than the quarter pop because it tells you the core demand problem is still there.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue is on the order of ~$900M (¼ of ~$3.6B FY). ~$5 EPS on a $20 stock is usually a trailing-twelve-month figure, not one quarter—check whether your source is quarterly or annual.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
5.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Harley sells heavyweight motorcycles, parts, gear, and loans to the people and dealers buying them.
Harley sells identity with the machine. It has more than 1,000 dealers worldwide and about 21% of sales come from outside the U.S., so you are buying a brand with global distribution, not just a factory. Eaglemark financing (loans for dealers and riders) keeps buyers inside Harley's system, which matters when the core market is mature.
How they make money
$3.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -13.1% last year
Heavyweight motorcycles
$2.30B
14.0%
Parts & accessories
$0.49B
9.0%
Apparel & licensing
$0.17B
2.0%
Financial services
$0.60B
+3.0%
LiveWire & other
$0.04B
+1.0%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells motorcycles
Heavyweight Custom Motorcycles
$2.30B · ~64% of company revenue
Heavyweight bikes are the visible engine. Company-wide revenue was ~$3.6B, down 13.1% last year—when demand slips here, the whole story slips with it.
core revenue base
Key numbers
5.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit. You are paying very little because the market does not trust the profit stream.
3.7%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year as a share of the stock price → you get paid to wait, but only if earnings hold.
19.0%
operating margin (FY)
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → Harley can still make real money when volume behaves.
6.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → this is decent, not elite, which fits a mature brand.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- net profit margin 11.6% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HOG 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,890.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Order-of-magnitude quarter: ~$900M revenue on a ~$3.6B year—trailing EPS near ~$4–$5 fits a ~5x multiple better than a single-quarter print.
Full-year revenue was $3.6B, down 13.1%. Ignore triple-digit vs. prior year quarter spikes unless filings define the comparison period—motorcycle revenue is cyclical and restatements happen.
~$900M
revenue (q)
~$4.50
ttm eps (approx.)
-13.1%
fy revenue
the number that mattered
The 13.1% full-year revenue decline matters more than the quarter pop because it tells you the core demand problem is still there.
-
motorcycle shipments were quite strong, despite a lackluster retail environment.we attribute this to management's ability to manage inventory and costs, despite some top-line headwinds including tariffs and uneven consumer spending. it should be noted while some use motorcycles as their sole means of transportation, for most it is a recreational activity. hence, motorcycles are generally very much discretionary purchases and demand is highly correlated to the financial health of the consumer.
-
we look for the bottom line to take a step back, though, in the year recently begun.while management has done a good job of managing inventories in the channel, the lackluster retail sales trend is concerning. tariffs and consumer spending ought to continue to be headwinds this year, which will likely put the top- and bottom-lines under pressure. we look for earnings per share to advance at a mid-single-digit annual clip, on average, over the pull to 2028-2030.
-
a decent economy underpins our profit-growth assumptions. These shares have lost considerable ground over the past year while the broader market averages have reached new highs.
-
they are timely and offer worthwhile recovery potential for the 3 to 5 years ahead.
-
however, we suggest that only risk-tolerant accounts look here.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is another demand slide in heavyweight motorcycles.
med
the rebound may not stick
Revenue fell 13.1% last year. The next period showed 4.2% growth. One good step after one bad year is a stabilization signal, not proof of a durable trend.
Impact: this page only shows one clear $3.6B revenue base. If the core market softens again, the whole story feels it.
med
quarterly results are lumpy
Quarterly EPS moved from $1.07 to $0.88 to $3.10 to -$1.05 in one fiscal year. That matches the 35/100 predictability score. You should expect volatility, not smooth compounding.
Impact: a low multiple does not protect you if earnings swing from positive to negative faster than the market expected.
med
brand power is not showing up in returns
Return on capital is 4.0% and return on equity is 8%. That's workable. It is not the kind of capital efficiency that gives management room for mistakes.
Impact: if volume weakens or pricing slips, there is not much excess profitability here to absorb the hit.
med
cheap can stay cheap
At 5.2x trailing earnings, the stock already screens as inexpensive. The quiet part: low-quality cyclicals often look cheapest right before the next disappointment.
Impact: if FY2026 does not move toward the $4B revenue estimate and $2.70 EPS estimate, the valuation case gets thinner fast.
These risks all sit on top of the same $3.6B revenue base. When the core motorcycle business wobbles, the income statement does not have many places to hide.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
whether growth holds after the rebound
The key pattern is simple: revenue fell 13.1%, then grew 4.2%. You want to see which number becomes the real trend.
metric
fy2026 eps estimate
The current estimate is $2.70. If that starts moving lower, the low-multiple argument loses some of its appeal.
risk
another negative quarter
The latest quarter came in at -$1.05 EPS. If that was not a one-off, you are dealing with a weaker earnings base than the trailing numbers suggest.
calendar
the next earnings print
This is the next real test. You want evidence that the business is tracking toward $4B in revenue, not drifting back toward contraction.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2. Analysts expect above-average price performance over the next year. In human-speak: they see bounce potential.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means this stock sits near the middle of the pack on risk. Not a bunker. Not chaos either.
chart momentum
top 20%
Technical score 2 says the chart has improved. The quiet part: that can happen even while the three-year total return still looks brutal.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
This is the translation: analysts do not view Harley's earnings stream as steady. The quarterly path already proved why.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
171 buyers vs. 165 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$16
$31
$21
current price
$24
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+115% · 23% ann'l return)
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