Start here if you're new
what it is
Hillman sells hardware-related products and merchandising help to stores across North America, then ships them from 22 distribution centers.
how it gets paid
Last year Hillman Solutions made $1.6B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.4% last year. Market volumes fell about 5% in 2025, meaning growth leaned more heavily on tariff-driven pricing and share gains rather than a healthy end market.
what just happened
Hillman reported $1.2B in quarterly revenue and $0.19 EPS, but the market wanted more.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
38.7x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
6.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
$0.70 fy2027 eps est
What they do
Hillman sells hardware-related products and merchandising help to stores across North America, then ships them from 22 distribution centers.
Hillman has 22 distribution centers across North America. That means your store gets screws, keys, and displays without building its own network. It also has about 3,800 employees, so the machine is big enough to keep shelves full and painful to replace.
How they make money
$1.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.4% last year
total revenue
$1.6B
+5.4%
The products that matter
distributes hardware products
Hardware & Fasteners
$1.2B · roughly 75% of segment sales shown here
this is still the core business. it generated $1.2B and grew 4%, which means hillman still rises and falls with basic store traffic and repair demand.
core revenue base
installs key systems
Robotics & Key Solutions
$300M · +10% growth
this $300M segment grew faster than the rest of the company at 10%. if management gets the mix shift it wants, this is where you should see it first.
faster-growth segment
serves pro customers
Pro Channel & Other
$50M · +8% growth
at $50M, this piece is still small. that's the opportunity and the problem. even at +8%, it is not big enough yet to offset weakness in the core business.
watch the scale
Key numbers
$1.55B
2025 sales
This is the top line for the year. It tells you the business is big enough to matter, but not big enough to hide mistakes.
38.7x
trailing P/E
P/E means price divided by profit. At 38.7x, you are paying a rich price for each dollar of trailing earnings.
6.8%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit generated from each dollar invested. 6.8% says the business works, but it is not printing outsized returns.
$668M
long-term debt
Debt is the bill attached to the equity story. At $668M, it is large enough to matter if margins wobble.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $668M (29% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HLMN 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,210.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Hillman reported $1.2B in quarterly revenue and $0.19 EPS, but the market wanted more.
Revenue rose 179% from a year earlier, and EPS rose 58%. That kind of jump usually means the base was noisy, the business had a lift, or both.
$1.2B
revenue
$0.19
eps
179%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $1.2B in revenue, because it shows the quarter was big even if the market still wanted more.
-
hillman’s 2025 fourth-quarter results were in line with our expectations.
-
sales rose 4.5%, to $365 million, in the december period, capping a record 2025 with $1.55 billion in sales and net income over $40 million.
-
the backdrop was still choppy, with u.s. existing-home sales totalling just under 4.1 million in 2025, one of the weakest levels in decades, and mortgage rates have stayed near 6%, which tends to dampen move-related home improvement demand.
-
market volumes fell about 5% in 2025, meaning growth leaned more heavily on tariff-driven pricing and share gains rather than a healthy end market.
-
housing-linked demand is still a headwind, but the decade could end stronger.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a housing market that stays frozen, because hillman's biggest business still depends on people fixing, moving, and buying homes.
high
housing-linked demand stays weak
u.s. existing-home sales were just under 4.1M in 2025, one of the weakest readings in decades. mortgage rates near 6% keep move-related spending soft, and that pressure lands hardest on the core hardware business.
u.s. existing-home sales were just under 4.1M in 2025, one of the weakest readings in decades. mortgage rates near 6% keep move-related spending soft, and that pressure lands hardest on the core hardware business.
med
margin reset becomes a margin trend
2026 adjusted gross margin guidance is 46–47%, below 2025. if the pricing tailwind fades and costs stay sticky, earnings can disappoint even if sales still grow a little.
2026 adjusted gross margin guidance is 46–47%, below 2025. if the pricing tailwind fades and costs stay sticky, earnings can disappoint even if sales still grow a little.
med
china sourcing still matters
33% of products are still sourced from china. tariffs, freight shifts, or broader geopolitical tension can hit both cost and availability.
33% of products are still sourced from china. tariffs, freight shifts, or broader geopolitical tension can hit both cost and availability.
med
the new growth engines stay too small
robotics & key solutions grew 10% and pro channel & other grew 8%, but they start from $300M and $50M. if they do not scale faster, the company stays tied to the slower $1.2B core business.
robotics & key solutions grew 10% and pro channel & other grew 8%, but they start from $300M and $50M. if they do not scale faster, the company stays tied to the slower $1.2B core business.
most of the revenue base still sits in the $1.2B hardware and fasteners segment, while 2026 starts with 46–47% margin guidance and a housing backdrop that remains weak.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
investor day — march 19, 2026
management plans to lay out the dual faucet strategy and long-term targets. this is where the company has to explain why a 38.7x multiple makes sense.
earnings
q1 2026 earnings — may 12, 2026
the next eps estimate is $0.11. the real question is whether early 2026 results support the lower 46–47% margin guide or come in better than feared.
metric
pro channel & other needs to get bigger
this segment grew 8%, but it is still only $50M. until that number gets meaningfully larger, the diversification story is more slide deck than income statement.
trend
watch the gap between company growth and market volumes
2025 volumes fell about 5% while hillman still grew sales 5.4%. if that gap narrows, the market may decide 2025 was a pricing story more than a structural one.
Analyst rankings
earnings view
$0.70
fy2027 eps estimate. in human-speak, analysts expect the earnings story to look better two years from now than it does today.
long-term target range
$10–$15
that brackets the 3–5 year outlook. it says there is upside if execution improves, but not enough certainty for a single obvious answer.
target midpoint
$11
about 35% above the current price. the street is not calling this broken. it is calling it a prove-it story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 69 buyers vs. 92 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$6
$15
$8
current price
$11
target midpoint · +35% from current · 3-5yr high: $15 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
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