Start here if you're new
what it is
Hawaiian Electric powers Hawaii, runs a local bank, and is still digging out from a wildfire bill that broke the income statement.
how it gets paid
Last year Hawaiian Electric made $3.1B in revenue. Commercial electricity was the main engine at $1.12B, or 36% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.1% last year. The 27.27% EPS miss mattered because this stock already needs investors to believe the rebound from $0.72 trailing EPS to $1.05 is real.
what just happened
Revenue of $2.3B, but the more important signal was that earnings trust is still fragile.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
Hawaiian Electric powers Hawaii, runs a local bank, and is still digging out from a wildfire bill that broke the income statement.
You do not casually swap out your island power grid. HECO serves 472,536 electric customers across Oahu, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Hawaii, and those systems are not interconnected. Regulated utility → the state lets it earn approved returns → so what: your customer base is sticky, even when the headlines are not.
How they make money
$3.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.1% last year
Commercial electricity
$1.12B
Residential electricity
$0.99B
Industrial electricity
$0.99B
Other electric revenue
$0.02B
The products that matter
generates and delivers electricity
electric utility
$3.1B revenue · 95% population coverage
it's the whole operating business: a regulated electric system serving 95% of hawaii's population and producing $3.1B in annual revenue. if this stock works from here, this asset is why.
the whole business
Key numbers
$1.875B
wildfire writeoff
That charge explains why 2024 EPS collapsed to -$10.42 from $1.81 in 2023. One line item can still dominate your thesis here.
$2.8B
long-term debt
Debt is 56% of capital. Plain English: lenders have a large claim on the business before you do.
7.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: this is a thin-margin recovery story, not a cash geyser.
4.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on each dollar invested → so what: 4.0% says this business is rebuilding, not compounding at an elite rate.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $2.8B (56% of capital)
- return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in HE 3 years ago → it's now worth $3,180.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue of $2.3B, but the more important signal was that earnings trust is still fragile.
The most recent reported EPS was $0.24 versus a $0.33 estimate, a 27.27% miss, even after 2025 full-year EPS recovered to $0.95 from a 2024 loss. Recovery is happening. Confidence is not fully back.
$2.3B
revenue
$0.24
eps
7.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 27.27% EPS miss mattered because this stock already needs investors to believe the rebound from $0.72 trailing EPS to $1.05 is real.
-
hawaiian electric industries (hei) is making headway on its recovery from the maui wildfire.to recap, in august 2023, hurricane level winds toppled power lines, igniting the deadly blaze that destroyed the town of lahaina. hei was overwhelmed with hundreds of tort claims for local damages and insurers’ lawsuits seeking restitution for payments made to policy holders. in a deal brokered by state authorities, the utility is slated to pay nearly half of a $4 billion settlement for local tort claims. the hawaii supreme court ruled that once the settlement is legally finalized, insurers cannot sue hei and other defendants. with that ruling in the company’s favor, the administrative steps needed to finalize the settlement are expected to be completed by the first half of this year, after which hei is due to make its first of four $479 million annual payments.
-
in 2024, hei took a $1.875 billion writeoff related to wildfire tort claims.
-
we included it in our earnings presentation to correlate with the massive drop in the share price.
-
the climb back to respectability remains difficult.hei initially contributed $75 million to the state’s wildfires victim fund and owes an additional $1.916 billion.
-
it’s expected to be paid off from this year through mid-2029.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is funding the maui wildfire settlement without cracking the balance sheet.
high
maui settlement funding
HE's share of the settlement is massive relative to its size. the company already paid $75M and still owes an additional $1.916B.
the first of four $479M annual payments starts after finalization. that's a real cash burden on a company worth about $2B in the market.
med
debt load limits flexibility
long-term debt is already $2.8B, or 56% of capital. utilities need dependable access to capital. HE needs it while carrying legal baggage.
if funding gets more expensive, the company has less room to invest in the grid and absorb settlement payments at the same time.
med
finalization delays keep the discount alive
the supreme court ruling helped, but the settlement still needs administrative completion in the first half of this year.
until the agreement is fully locked, the stock keeps trading on legal process instead of normal utility fundamentals.
low
earnings still lack utility-like stability
earnings predictability is 10/100 and price stability is 15/100. that's unusually weak for a regulated monopoly.
even if operations settle down, investors may keep demanding a discount until HE strings together several cleaner quarters.
a $4B settlement framework against a $2B market cap and $2.8B of long-term debt means the risk picture is mostly balance-sheet math, not utility demand.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
settlement finalization
watch for the final legal and administrative step on the maui settlement. once it closes, the payment clock starts.
calendar
first $479M payment
this is the near-term balance-sheet event that matters most. a scheduled liability becomes a cash event.
metric
EPS versus cash burden
FY2025 EPS was $0.95 and FY2026 EPS is estimated at $1.05. you want earnings holding up while the settlement drains cash.
trend
institutional buying streak
institutions were net buyers for three straight quarters. if that support fades before the legal cloud clears, sentiment can turn fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak: analysts do not see a clean directional signal right now.
risk profile
elevated
stability score 4 means it's safer than only 20% of stocks. this is more volatile than a normal utility should be.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. the chart is not giving you a strong trend either way.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
profits are hard to model. if you want smooth utility earnings, this is not that setup.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 155 buyers vs. 112 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$4
$17
$13
current price
$11
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $20 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive