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what it is
Warrior Met Coal digs up metallurgical coal, the kind steelmakers burn to make steel.
how it gets paid
Last year Warrior Met Coal made $1.3B in revenue. U.S. steelmakers was the main engine at $0.52B, or 40% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 14.1% last year. Revenue rose 182% vs. prior year. EPS fell 7% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Revenue hit $926M, while EPS was $0.65.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
74.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
11.2% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$4.79 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Warrior Met Coal digs up metallurgical coal, the kind steelmakers burn to make steel.
You are buying deep Alabama mines, not a laptop company. Warrior runs underground shafts about 2,000 feet below the surface, then ships by barge and rail to Mobile. That is junkyard math for competitors. Premium hard-coking coal (steelmaking coal) sells near the Platts Index, so the product gets benchmark pricing instead of bargain-bin pricing.
How they make money
$1.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -14.1% last year
U.S. steelmakers
$0.52B
Europe steelmakers
$0.39B
Asia steelmakers
$0.26B
South America steelmakers
$0.13B
The products that matter
new longwall mining operation
Blue Creek Mine
2026 volume catalyst
management expects Blue Creek to help drive more than 30% sales volume growth in 2026. That's the growth story. If the ramp slips or 2026 stays free-cash-flow negative longer than planned, the premium multiple loses its excuse.
30%+ volume goal
steelmaking coal exports
Metallurgical Coal
$1.3B annual revenue
this product generated the full $1.3B revenue base last year, but sales still fell 14.1%. In plain English: HCC sells into one market, and that market was weak.
100% of revenue
legacy production base
Alabama Mines
26.8% operating margin
this base keeps the business moving today and helps fund the build, but it still sits inside a $1.3B revenue company that fell 14.1% last year.
cash engine
Key numbers
$1.3B
annual revenue
That is the whole sales base. A 10% swing in revenue is about $130M.
74.6x
trailing p/e
You are paying 74.6 times trailing earnings. That is a rich price for a miner.
3.5%
operating margin
For every $100 in sales, only $3.50 stayed after operating costs.
$211M
long-term debt
Debt is only 4% of capital, so the balance sheet is not the problem.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $211M (4% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for HCC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $926M, while EPS was $0.65.
Revenue rose 182% vs. prior year. EPS fell 7% vs. prior year, so the volume bounce did not fully fix earnings power.
$325M
revenue
$0.65
eps
182%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The $926M revenue print mattered most. It was 182% above last year, but EPS still slipped 7% to $0.65.
source: company earnings report
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is Blue Creek ramping into a weak steelmaking coal market.
high
Blue Creek cash burn
Management has already said 2026 will be free-cash-flow negative as the mine ramps and working capital rises.
That pushes execution risk straight onto the balance sheet at the exact moment investors are counting on future volume.
high
steel market weakness
The company reported higher Q4 sales volumes despite weak steel markets. That sounds encouraging until you remember price still drives a big part of the earnings outcome.
HCC gets 100% of its current $1.3B revenue from metallurgical coal, so there is no second engine if the market stays soft.
med
valuation assumes the comeback
A 74.6x trailing P/E is not pricing HCC as a plain commodity producer. It is pricing a recovery and a cleaner post-ramp earnings profile.
If Blue Creek slips or coal pricing stays weak, you can get both earnings disappointment and multiple compression at the same time.
These risks converge in one place: a single-commodity miner spending into the down part of the cycle while the stock already reflects better days ahead.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the metric
Blue Creek volume versus cash burn
The company is targeting more than 30% sales volume growth in 2026. If that number starts to wobble while free cash flow stays negative, the market's patience gets shorter fast.
the trend
steel market pricing
HCC can post better operating metrics and still disappoint if steelmaking coal pricing stays soft. Watch realized pricing commentary every quarter, not just tonnage.
the calendar
2026 shareholder meeting
Stockholders are set to vote on a new equity incentive plan and executive pay. Governance is rarely the headline here, but it matters more when a capital-heavy build is still underway.
the risk
free-cash-flow guidance
Management already flagged a negative free-cash-flow year. The key question from here is whether that stays a one-year bridge or turns into a longer funding problem.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust next quarter's earnings to behave. That fits a one-commodity miner building a new mine in a weak market.
risk rank
2
This system scores HCC as safer than 80% of stocks on balance-sheet terms. Safer does not mean stable — the 25 / 100 price stability score handles that part.
price stability
25 / 100
in human-speak, this is still a miner's tape. The balance sheet helps, but the stock can move hard when coal pricing or ramp expectations change.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for HCC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$84
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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