Start here if you're new
what it is
Horizon Bancorp is a Midwest commercial bank that makes money from loans, deposits, fees, and equipment financing.
how it gets paid
Last year Horizon Bancorp made $363M in revenue. Commercial lending was the main engine at $192.4M, or 53% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.8% last year. Revenue was up 195% vs. prior year based on the SEC figure.
what just happened
Revenue hit $273M, but EPS fell to -$3.94 and swallowed the headline.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$3.15 fy2025 eps est
$3M fy2024 rev est
1.15 beta
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
Horizon Bancorp is a Midwest commercial bank that makes money from loans, deposits, fees, and equipment financing.
This is a relationship bank, not an app with a logo. Horizon has 71 full-service offices, $6.4 billion in assets, and 841 employees serving Indiana and Michigan customers who still want a lender that knows their business. Branch density and local ties are a deposit base moat (deposits → customer cash the bank funds loans with → cheaper funding) because your checking account is stickier than a marketing slogan.
How they make money
$363M
annual revenue · their business grew +1.8% last year
Commercial lending
$192.4M
flat
Residential mortgage
$72.6M
dn
Consumer secured lending
$43.6M
flat
Treasury and deposit services
$32.7M
up
Wealth management and equipment finance
$21.8M
up
The products that matter
lends money and captures the spread
Net Interest Income
$241M · 66% of revenue
this $241M stream grew 8.7%, and management's 4.25%–4.35% 2026 margin guide says they know it's the number that matters.
core driver
fees, advisory, and service charges
Non-interest Income
$122M · 34% of revenue
this $122M bucket fell 11.2%. that's a problem because fee income is supposed to make a bank less hostage to rate moves.
pressure point
deposit gathering and loan pricing
Core Banking Franchise
$63.5M q4 net interest income
q4 net interest income rose from $58.4M to $63.5M. that's the recent improvement the market wants repeated, not merely explained.
quarterly watch
Key numbers
$3.15
2025 EPS est
EPS → profit per share → so what: the expected swing from $0.80 in 2024 to a $3.15 loss tells you this bank is in cleanup mode, not cruise mode.
$1.3B
long-term debt
Debt → money the company owes over years → so what: $1.3 billion is heavy for an $810 million company and limits flexibility.
61%
debt to capital
Debt to capital → how much of the funding stack is borrowed money → so what: 61% is high enough that funding costs matter a lot.
$6.4B
total assets
Assets → the bank's loan and securities base → so what: Horizon is big enough to matter locally, but not big enough to hide mistakes.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $1.3B (61% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for HBNC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $273M, but EPS fell to -$3.94 and swallowed the headline.
Revenue was up 195% vs. prior year based on the SEC figure, but that did not translate into profit. Quiet part loud: a bank can print revenue and still lose money if credit costs or balance-sheet marks bite hard enough.
$91M
revenue
$3.94
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$3.94 in EPS because revenue growth means very little when each share still loses nearly $4 in a quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is net interest margin slipping below the 4.25%–4.35% guide.
high
Net interest margin compression
2026 guidance is 4.25%–4.35%. A 25 basis point miss would cut roughly $15M from annual net interest income, based on the roughly $6B earning-asset base cited in the current snapshot.
this is the central earnings risk.
high
Negative return on equity
Trailing ROE sits at -20.73%. That's not a valuation nuance. It's a signal that the franchise has not recently turned shareholder capital into acceptable returns.
cheap stocks stay cheap when profitability stays broken.
med
Leadership turnover and board changes
The chief administrative officer role was eliminated in march 2026 and two directors exited in january 2026. leadership changes aren't automatically bad, but they matter more when investors already doubt the franchise.
execution risk rises when the story depends on consistency.
low
Institutional ownership overhang
64.5% institutional ownership means price action can move faster than fundamentals. if larger holders lose patience with the margin story, you feel it quickly.
ownership concentration can amplify downside.
a 25 basis point margin miss alone could reduce annual net interest income by roughly $15M, and that's before you factor in a franchise already posting -20.73% trailing ROE.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
margin
4.25%–4.35% is the line that matters
management gave you the band. if net interest margin starts living below it, the bull case gets very short very fast.
q1 2026 earnings
next proof point lands around late april 2026
watch whether q4's 4.29% margin holds up and whether net interest income can stay closer to $63.5M than $58.4M.
fee income
the 11.2% decline needs to stop
non-interest income fell to $122M. if that line keeps shrinking, HBNC becomes even more of a pure rate bet.
leadership
turnover only matters if the numbers weaken too
role eliminations and board exits can be noise. they stop being noise if the operating recovery stalls at the same time.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
in human-speak: analysts do not think this bank produces clean, easy-to-model quarters.
risk rank
3
that's roughly middle-of-the-pack safety. not a bunker stock, not a disaster by default.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for HBNC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$19
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive