Start here if you're new
what it is
Gran Tierra drills for oil and gas in Colombia, Canada, and Ecuador, with most of the money coming from Colombia.
how it gets paid
Last year Gte made $597M in revenue. Colombia was the main engine at $0.56B, or 93% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.0% last year. Revenue jumped 213% vs. prior year, yet annual revenue still fell 4.0% to $597M.
what just happened
Gran Tierra posted $467M of quarterly revenue, but EPS was -$1.47.
At a glance
C balance sheet — red flag territory — real financial stress
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
3.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.10 fy2024 eps est
$622M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 19/100 — weak
What they do
Gran Tierra drills for oil and gas in Colombia, Canada, and Ecuador, with most of the money coming from Colombia.
You are not buying a spread-out oil story. You are buying a Colombia story: 93% of 2024 revenue came from there. Gran Tierra drilled 14 of 30 wells in Colombia, so local execution matters more than a glossy pitch. The upside is simple. The business already knows where the cash lives.
How they make money
$597M
annual revenue · their business grew -4.0% last year
Colombia
$0.56B
Canada
$0.02B
Ecuador
$0.02B
The products that matter
produces and sells crude oil
Oil sales
$571M · 95.6% of revenue
this is the business. $571M of revenue came from oil sales, and the line fell 4.0% from last year. if crude prices or volumes slip, most of the income statement feels it.
main cash engine
sells gas and natural gas liquids
Natural gas & NGLs
$26M · 4.4% of revenue
this segment is small at $26M and was flat from last year. it helps, but it does not change the single-commodity nature of the thesis.
minor offset
core producing asset base
Acordionero field
~46,344 BOEPD q4 production base
the page data is thin on field-level economics, so we will not pretend otherwise. what we do know is that Gran Tierra ended Q4 at 46,344 BOEPD, and core field performance drives whether that holds.
execution matters
Key numbers
93%
Colombia share
93% of revenue came from Colombia, so one country drives most of your outcome.
$762M
Long-term debt
Debt is bigger than the company’s $290M market cap, which leaves equity in a tight spot.
55.3%
Operating margin
The business keeps 55.3 cents of operating profit per revenue dollar, but that does not erase the debt load.
3.8%
Return on capital
You are getting only 3.8 cents of profit for each capital dollar, which is a thin return for an oil name.
Financial health
C
strength
- balance sheet grade C — very weak — significant financial distress
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $762M (72% of capital)
C — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for GTE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Gran Tierra posted $467M of quarterly revenue, but EPS was -$1.47.
Revenue jumped 213% vs. prior year, yet annual revenue still fell 4.0% to $597M. That gap says the business can swing hard from one quarter to the next.
$467M
revenue
-$1.47
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The $467M quarter is about 78% of full-year revenue, so one quarter can dominate the whole year.
source: EDGAR SEC filing, 2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is deleveraging failure in a colombia-heavy oil business.
med
high leverage
Long-term debt is $762M, which is 72% of capital and far above the $290M equity value. That leaves little room for an operating miss.
If free cash flow disappoints, the balance sheet stays stressed and refinancing risk gets louder.
med
oil price exposure
Oil sales made up 95.6% of revenue, or $571M of the $622M total. A commodity swing hits revenue, margins, and debt-paydown capacity at the same time.
This business does not have much of a second engine if crude weakens.
med
colombia concentration
Almost all operations sit in Colombia. That means political, regulatory, transport, and local operating issues are not side risks. They are core risks.
A country-specific problem would hit most of the asset base at once.
med
2026 execution risk
Management is targeting $60–$80M in free cash flow and $220–$270M in EBITDA for 2026. Those numbers depend on holding production and costs in line.
Miss the cash target and the whole deleveraging case starts to wobble.
med
control and reporting risk
A June 2024 SEC document cited risk around not detecting a material misstatement. Thin trust is a bad companion for a leveraged small cap.
Any reporting issue would raise the cost of believing the turnaround math.
With $762M of long-term debt against a $290M market cap, another year without clear debt reduction would leave the equity carrying most of the downside and little margin for error.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
cash flow
the $60–$80M free cash flow target
This is the number that matters. Hit it, and debt starts to move down. Miss it, and the balance-sheet problem stays the main character.
production
whether 46,344 BOEPD holds
Gran Tierra ended Q4 at 46,344 BOEPD. If that base slips, the 2026 EBITDA and cash flow plan gets tougher fast.
leverage
debt moving down from $762M
You do not need perfect precision here. You need a clear direction. Flat debt after a full year of promised cash generation would be a bad sign.
next update
the next quarterly production print
This is where management starts proving whether the Q4 pace was a peak, a plateau, or the new operating base.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see a stable earnings pattern here. expect a lumpy ride.
street target gap
$6.49 vs $8.21
the median target sits below the stock price. that usually means the street wants more proof before it pays up.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for GTE is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$8
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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