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what it is
Goodyear makes and sells tires worldwide, then backs that up with truck service, retreading, and about 750 auto service locations.
how it gets paid
Last year Goodyear Tire made $18.3B in revenue. Americas was the main engine at $9.8B, or 54% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.2% last year. Management closed out 2025 with soft results. Tire unit volumes declined in every geographic region.
what just happened
Goodyear reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, missing the $0.48 consensus as sales slipped to $4.917 billion.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
19.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
Goodyear makes and sells tires worldwide, then backs that up with truck service, retreading, and about 750 auto service locations.
Tires are boring until you need four of them today. Goodyear wins because it has 49 factories in 19 countries and roughly 750 service locations, so your replacement shows up fast. Scale → lots of factories and distribution → lower unit costs and better shelf space, so what: smaller rivals fight for scraps while Goodyear stays on the rack.
How they make money
$18.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.2% last year
Americas
$9.8B
2.0%
Europe, Middle East and Africa
$5.7B
4.0%
Asia Pacific
$2.4B
5.0%
Other businesses
$0.4B
3.0%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells tires
Tires
$18.3B revenue
it's the entire $18.3B business, and total tire unit volumes declined last year. If volumes keep slipping, a 2.0% net margin does not leave you much room to absorb it.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$5.3B
long-term debt
This matters because debt is 68% of capital, so a small operating miss can hit equity hard.
6.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: Goodyear is not earning much on a very large asset base.
11.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: this has to keep rising to make the debt load less scary.
$1.25
2027 EPS est
Earnings per share estimate → what profit per share might look like in 2027 → so what: the bull case needs earnings to nearly triple from 2025's $0.46.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $5.3B (68% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.5% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GT 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,720.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Goodyear reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, missing the $0.48 consensus as sales slipped to $4.917 billion.
Management closed out 2025 with soft results. Tire unit volumes declined in every geographic region, even after adjusting for recent divestitures.
$4.9B
revenue
$0.39
eps
11.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The miss versus the $0.48 consensus mattered most because this is a turnaround story, and turnarounds lose credibility one quarter at a time.
-
goodyear tire & rubber closed out 2025 with soft results.
-
fourth-quarter sales of $4.917 billion decreased slightly compared to the previous-year tally.
-
however, organic sales, which excludes the recent divestitures of the off-the-road tire business, the dunlop brand, and the chemical unit, increased 4%.
-
total tire unit volumes decreased due to declines in each geographic region.in the americas, replacement tire volumes were pressured by high channel inventories of imported products in the u.s.
-
ongoing industry weakness in the europe, middle east, and africa (emea) region caused an 8% decline in replacement unit volumes.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk here is simple: Goodyear already only keeps 2.0% of revenue as net profit, and the company just reported falling unit volumes in every region. When margins are that thin, you do not need a disaster to disappoint your shareholders.
med
u.s. channel inventories
management flagged high channel inventories of imported products in the U.S. as a drag on Americas replacement volumes.
replacement tires are the core business. If dealers are full, Goodyear has less room to protect price or volume. That's bad math in a 2.0% margin business.
med
falling unit volumes
total tire unit volumes declined across every geographic region last year.
that exposes 100% of the $18.3B revenue base to weaker factory utilization. In plain English: softer volume can hit profit faster than revenue.
med
EMEA replacement weakness
EMEA replacement unit volumes dropped 8% amid ongoing industry weakness.
one region falling this hard matters because it says the problem is not limited to one market or one quarter.
med
debt on thin margins
Goodyear carries $5.3B of long-term debt, equal to 68% of capital, while net margin sits at 2.0%.
that is not distress data. It is low-flexibility data. A small operating miss can do outsized damage when only 2 cents of every dollar reaches net income.
with $5.3B of long-term debt and just a 2.0% net margin, Goodyear does not need a collapse to disappoint you. It just needs another modest volume slide.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
you want to know whether the $0.39 Q4 EPS run rate was a finish-line spike or the start of something steadier.
risk
unit volumes by region
last year volumes declined across every geography. If that line stays red next quarter, the turnaround story gets thinner.
trend
organic sales versus reported sales
organic sales were up 4% while reported revenue fell 3.2%. That gap tells you whether cleanup is revealing a healthier core or just hiding weak demand for a quarter.
metric
fy2026 eps estimate
the current estimate is $0.60. If that number moves down instead of up, the apparent forward cheapness disappears fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge here.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — more volatile than most, with a price stability score of 20 / 100.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not broken, but it is not leading either.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings predictability is 10 / 100. Translation: this business gives you more noise than comfort.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 139 buyers vs. 145 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$3
$12
$9
current price
$8
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $19 (+120% · 21% ann'l return)
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