Start here if you're new
what it is
GRAIL sells Galleri, a blood test that looks for early signs of multiple cancers.
how it gets paid
Last year Grail made $147M in revenue. Galleri test sales was the main engine at $112M, or 76% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 17.2% last year. The $104M quarter matters because it was up 186% from last year.
what just happened
Revenue hit $104M, while EPS was still -$8.73.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
-$63.54 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
n/a operating margin
~$2B market cap
What they do
GRAIL sells Galleri, a blood test that looks for early signs of multiple cancers.
GRAIL has sold more than 290,000 commercial tests. That is real usage, not lab vapor. The company also has 21,000+ participants in CCGA and PATHFINDER, so doctors and payors (insurers) have data before they write checks. Leaving is painful because your screening history and buying relationships do not reset overnight.
How they make money
$147M
annual revenue · their business grew +17.2% last year
Galleri test sales
$112M
+22.0%
Health-system partnerships
$15M
+30.0%
Employer and payor contracts
$8M
+18.0%
Clinical evidence programs
$7M
+12.0%
Other services and research
$5M
+6.0%
The products that matter
multi-cancer blood screening
Galleri
$147M · the entire revenue base
it's the whole commercial story today: $147M in 2025 revenue, 50+ cancer signals screened, and a failed primary endpoint hanging over adoption.
one product
commercial expansion partnership
Samsung collaboration
$1.1B strategic deal
this is not current revenue. it matters because management needs a new commercial path after the NHS miss, and $1.1B is large enough to keep investors paying attention.
future, not booked
clinical evidence program
NHS-Galleri study
140,000 participants
the study was supposed to validate broad screening in the real world. instead, the failed primary endpoint put the entire go-to-market story under a harsher light.
proof problem
Key numbers
$2.0B
FY2026 revenue
That is 13.6x the $147M trailing run rate. The stock only works if adoption keeps sprinting.
$147M
ttm revenue
This is the base. The gap between $147M and $2.0B is the whole setup.
-382%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, the business lost $382. That is not a margin problem. That is a furnace.
$45M
long-term debt
Debt is only $45M, or 2% of capital. The bigger problem is losses, not leverage.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- long-term debt $45M (2% of capital)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for GRAL right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed the profit test
Revenue hit $104M, while EPS was still -$8.73.
Revenue rose 186% vs. prior year. The business is growing fast, but the losses are still heavy.
$104M
revenue
$8.73
eps
186%
revenue Vs. last year
revenue surge
The $104M quarter matters because it was up 186% from last year. The gap to $2.0B is still huge.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is commercial adoption after the NHS-Galleri miss.
med
the core evidence story just cracked
The pivotal NHS-Galleri study failed to meet its primary endpoint of reducing late-stage cancers. For a screening company, that is not a side issue. It's the case.
The immediate proof was brutal: the stock dropped about 50% and around $1B of market value vanished.
med
reimbursement still decides the business
Galleri can screen for 50+ cancers, and the test costs $900+ per use. If insurers do not reimburse broadly before stronger outcomes data arrives, adoption stays limited.
That leaves 100% of today's $147M revenue base exposed to slower uptake than the market once expected.
med
cash runway buys time, not forgiveness
Management says cash lasts into 2030. That's useful. It also means the company expects years of operating losses while it tries to rebuild credibility.
At a -277% net margin on $147M revenue, grail needs more than patience. It needs proof that demand can scale.
med
the Samsung deal can stay a story for longer than bulls want
A $1.1B partnership sounds like validation. It is not the same thing as booked revenue or clinical de-risking.
If that deal does not translate into visible commercial progress, investors are left valuing hope against a failed trial backdrop.
grail is not facing generic biotech risk. it is facing a specific problem: a $147M business must rebuild trust in one product while the market still remembers a ~$1B value wipeout.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
clinical fallout
whether demand holds after the NHS miss
The business did $147M in 2025 revenue. The first thing to watch now is whether that base stabilizes or starts slipping.
earnings
next earnings report
Expected may 12, 2026. You want to hear what replaces the lost trial narrative in the commercial pitch.
leadership
new ceo, new script
Josh Ofman takes over june 1, 2026. A leadership handoff this soon after the setback means the board expects a reset.
partnership
whether the $1.1B Samsung deal becomes visible revenue
Right now it is a strategic talking point. The market will eventually ask for commercial receipts.
Analyst rankings
chart momentum
top 5%
momentum rank 1 — the highest rating — analysts expect this stock to outperform almost everything.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for GRAL is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$104
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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