Start here if you're new
what it is
Green Plains makes low-carbon fuel and runs grain and energy services around it.
how it gets paid
Last year Green Plains made $189M in revenue. Ethanol Production was the main engine at $96M, or 51% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 16.0% last year. Revenue was up 228% vs. prior year. Gross margin reached 65.9%.
what just happened
Revenue hit $147M, but the quarter still posted a -$1.99 EPS loss.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$1.80 fy2025 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
35.6% operating margin
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Green Plains makes low-carbon fuel and runs grain and energy services around it.
Low-carbon fuels → cleaner-burning fuel → so what: policy support keeps demand in the game. Agribusiness and Energy Services → grain buying, selling, and storage → so what: you own both the inputs and the logistics. That matters because the latest quarter still carried a 65.9% gross margin and 923 employees keep the machine running.
How they make money
$189M
annual revenue · their business grew +16.0% last year
Ethanol Production
$96M
Agribusiness and Energy Services
$40M
Distillers Grains
$32M
Renewable Corn Oil
$21M
The products that matter
biofuel manufacturing
Ethanol Production
$1.5B · about 71% of revenue shown
it's the main business at $1.5B of revenue, but a -5.80% net margin means the company still loses about 6 cents for every dollar that comes in.
core business
grain marketing and byproducts
Agribusiness & Energy
$600M · about 29% of revenue shown
this $600M segment gives you a second revenue stream, but it still sits inside the same commodity chain. diversification helps. it does not erase volatility.
secondary stream
co2 sequestration and tax credits
Carbon Capture
3 nebraska facilities operational
all three nebraska facilities are operating and the company is marketing 2026 45Z credits, with a Freepoint Commodities deal already covering 2025–2029 credits. this is the strategic swing.
the rerating bet
Key numbers
-$1.80
2025 EPS
A loss of $1.80 per share means the stock is priced for a turnaround, not today’s earnings.
65.9%
gross margin
That margin says the latest quarter worked better at the plant level than the bottom line did.
$406M
long-term debt
Debt equal to 27% of capital gives lenders real leverage when margins slip.
$189M
annual revenue
That is the full top line, and it sits well below the company’s roughly $1B market cap.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $406M (27% of capital)
C++ — risk rank looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for GPRE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $147M, but the quarter still posted a -$1.99 EPS loss.
Revenue was up 228% vs. prior year. Gross margin reached 65.9%, which is the kind of number that keeps turnaround fans interested and accountants annoyed.
$147M
revenue
-$1.99
eps
65.9%
gross margin
gross margin
65.9% gross margin mattered most because it was the one number that looked healthy while EPS stayed negative.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is ethanol margins staying too thin to carry a $406M debt load.
high
thin margins meet real debt
a -5.80% net margin means the core business still burns value even with $2.25B of trailing revenue. debt looks manageable until profitability disappears again.
if losses persist, $406M in long-term debt stops being background noise and starts controlling the story.
med
45Z credits have to become money, not just strategy
three nebraska facilities are operational and management is marketing 2026 credits. that is progress. the risk is poor pricing, slow monetization, or weaker-than-hoped demand.
if credits do not lift cash flow, the market goes back to valuing this as an ethanol name with extra paperwork.
low
quarterly volatility is the norm here
earnings predictability is 30/100 and price stability is 15/100. that is the data saying quarter-to-quarter results will not behave.
even when the longer-term thesis is intact, the stock can still trade like the thesis broke.
a -5.80% net margin on $2.25B of trailing revenue leaves little room for error when $406M of long-term debt still needs servicing.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
q1 2026 earnings report
scheduled for may 14, 2026. you want to see whether the Q4 profit repeats or disappears as fast as it arrived.
margin
operating margin above 1.2%
1.2% operating margin is survival, not comfort. if that number does not move up, the valuation story stays stuck in commodity territory.
credits
45Z monetization terms
the company is marketing 2026 production tax credits and has a Freepoint Commodities deal covering 2025–2029 credits. price and volume are the part that matters.
leadership
new cfo, same cash-flow problem
ann reis took over as cfo in january 2026. you should track whether debt management and working-capital discipline improve from here.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust the quarter-to-quarter earnings pattern.
balance sheet grade
C++
below average balance-sheet quality. not broken, not comfortable.
risk rank
2
this measure says the company is safer than the stock's 15 / 100 price stability would suggest.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for GPRE is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$14
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive