Start here if you're new
what it is
It moves card and online payments for businesses, banks, and governments across 3 regions.
how it gets paid
Last year Global Payments made $7.7B in revenue. Americas was the main engine at $6.18B, or 80% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.4% last year. The 253.33% beat matters because it says expectations were tiny and GPN still cleared them easily.
what just happened
GPN beat by 253.33%, but the EPS trail is split between $4.85 and $3.18.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
20.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
It moves card and online payments for businesses, banks, and governments across 3 regions.
You do not rip out the system that moves money at checkout. Global Payments sits between the sale and the payout, so leaving means reworking billing, settlement (getting paid after the sale), and support. Its $7.7B revenue base spans 80.3% Americas and 17.1% Europe, so one customer loss does not kill the whole machine.
How they make money
$7.7B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.4% last year
Americas
$6.18B
Europe
$1.32B
Asia Pacific
$0.20B
The products that matter
core payment processing
Merchant Solutions
$7.7B · essentially the core business
this is the $7.7B engine investors are underwriting, and it grew just 0.4% in the latest quarter. if growth improves, the rerating case works. if it does not, you own a mature processor at a mature multiple.
0.4% growth
legacy issuer exposure
Issuer Solutions
$0.0B shown after restructuring
revenue shown here is $0.0B after the 2026 restructuring. that is not hidden upside. it is a reminder that the portfolio got smaller, and the remaining business has to carry the story.
portfolio reset
Key numbers
$104
target price
says you get 41% upside from $73.8 if the business keeps holding together.
22.8%
operating margin
That is the profit left before taxes and interest, so every 1 point matters.
$13.3B
long-term debt
That debt is 43% of capital, which leaves less room if rates stay ugly.
1.4
beta
The stock moves about 40% more than the market, so bad news lands harder.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $13.3B (43% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.9% — keeps 15 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 6% — $0.06 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GPN 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,060.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
GPN beat by 253.33%, but the EPS trail is split between $4.85 and $3.18.
Revenue was $5.8B, up 188% vs. prior year. EDGAR lists $4.85 EPS. Yahoo's consensus tracker shows $3.18 actual versus $0.90 expected, so the beat was real even if the reporting basis differs.
$1.9B
revenue
$4.85
eps
253.33%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 253.33% beat matters because it says expectations were tiny and GPN still cleared them easily.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is restructuring math masking weak core growth.
high
the post-reset business is not growing fast enough
Reported revenue fell 24% last year, and the main remaining segment grew just 0.4% in the latest quarter. That is a thin base for a 5% core growth story.
If Merchant Solutions stays near 0.4%, the 2026 guide starts to look like hope instead of trajectory.
med
$13.3B of debt narrows the margin for error
Long-term debt is 43% of capital, and management still needs leverage below 3.0x by the end of 2026. That makes cash flow execution part of the equity story.
If leverage misses the target, the low multiple stops looking like an opportunity and starts looking earned.
med
returns are still weak for a payments business
Return on capital is 4.0%, and return on equity is 4%. Those numbers say the business has not turned scale into strong shareholder economics yet.
If those returns do not improve, you are not looking at a hidden compounder. You are looking at a merely average processor.
low
capital return is doing some of the storytelling
The dividend yield is 1.5%, and management plans more than $2B of buybacks in 2026. That supports per-share math, but it does not replace operating momentum.
If buybacks slow while growth stays soft, the support under the $18B market cap gets thinner.
If merchant growth stays near 0.4% and leverage stays above 3.0x, the 11.5x forward multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
growth
merchant revenue above 0.4%
The single most important tell is whether the core business starts growing faster than the latest 0.4% print.
balance sheet
leverage below 3.0x
Management drew the line for you. If debt relative to EBITDA does not drop under 3.0x, the cleanup story drags.
capital return
$2B+ buyback pace
Track whether the company follows through on the planned 2026 repurchase pace while still reducing leverage.
earnings
$13.80–$14.00 adjusted EPS
In human-speak: profit has to grow faster than sales from here, or the recovery pitch loses credibility.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has better-than-average upside over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a disaster setup either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the tape is not giving you a strong signal yet.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
the earnings line is only moderately predictable, which fits a company still cleaning up its story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
422 buyers vs. 350 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$59
$148
$74
current price
$104
target midpoint · +41% from current · 3-5yr high: $160 (+115% · 22% ann'l return)
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