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what it is
Graphic Packaging makes paperboard boxes and cartons for food, drinks, and household goods.
how it gets paid
Last year Graphic Packaging made $8.6B in revenue. Food cartons was the main engine at $3.1B, or 36% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.2% last year. Adjusted earnings fell from $0.59 to $0.29, a 50% drop.
what just happened
Graphic Packaging missed with $0.29 versus $0.39 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
6.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Graphic Packaging makes paperboard boxes and cartons for food, drinks, and household goods.
Customers do not swap carton suppliers like socks. supplier qualification → the buyer tests and approves the package again → so what: leaving is painful. Graphic Packaging runs 8 plants in the U.S. and Canada, and 70% of sales come from the U.S., so the network sits close to the customer.
How they make money
$8.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -2.2% last year
Food cartons
$3.1B
+4.0%
Beverage cartons
$2.5B
+5.0%
Consumer & home care packaging
$1.5B
+2.0%
Industrial & other packaging
$1.5B
0.0%
The products that matter
manufactures paperboard packaging
Paperboard Packaging
$8.6B revenue
it's the entire $8.6B business, and revenue fell 2.2% last year. That means you are underwriting one packaging cycle, not a diversified portfolio of growth engines.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$20
analyst target
Analysts put the stock at $20.0. That is 70% above $11.77, so the upside gap is real.
6.5x
trailing p/e
trailing p/e → price divided by earnings → so what: you pay 6.5 times last year's profit.
4.8%
dividend yield
4.8% yield means $0.57 a year on an $11.77 stock. The cash return is doing work.
16.0%
operating margin
16.0% operating margin means $16 of operating profit on each $100 of sales.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $5.0B (59% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.1% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 23% — $0.23 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GPK 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,080.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Graphic Packaging missed with $0.29 versus $0.39 expected.
Adjusted earnings fell from $0.59 to $0.29, a 50% drop. The December CEO change and Eminence Capital's 4.2% letter added more noise than comfort.
$2.1B
revenue (Q)
$0.29
eps (Q · adj.)
25.6%
miss vs est.
eps miss
The $0.29 print versus $0.39 expected was the whole story. That is a $0.10 miss, or 25.64%.
-
adjusted earnings in the december quarter fell by half, to $0.29 per share from $0.59 in the prior year.the industry is in the midst of a cyclical downturn, as a sluggish consumer demand environment has put pressure on demand and pricing. the company's strong cost position will allow it to remain profitable during this weak period, but earnings are likely to be depressed for the next several quarters. our estimate is for income of $1.10 per share in 2026 and $1.40 in 2027, compared to $1.80 in 2025. There has been a change in top leadership at the company.
-
on december 8th, michael doss, the former ceo agreed to step down as of december 31st.he had been in his current role for more than 10 years, but, at 58, is well shy of normal retirement age. in his place, steps in robbert rietbroek, 52 years of age, who has broad senior-level experience at several major consumer product companies and assumed the ceo position on january 1st.
-
the news was not well received by at least one major shareholder.
-
eminence capital, an owner of 4.2% of the shares, sent an open leader to gpk stockholders harshly criticizing the abrupt removal of mr.
-
doss and the hiring of mr.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is securities-fraud litigation tied to officer or director conduct, layered on top of a low-margin business already carrying $5.0B in debt.
med
securities-fraud investigation
A law firm said it is investigating Graphic Packaging for potential securities fraud by officers or directors. That does not prove wrongdoing, but it does create legal and reputational drag right now.
The immediate impact is sentiment. For a stock already sitting near a roughly $4B market cap, added legal noise can keep the multiple compressed even if operations merely stay okay.
med
too much leverage for a 4.4% margin business
Long-term debt stands at $5.0B, or 59% of capital. Net profit margin is 4.4%, which means there is not much cushion if pricing, volume, or legal costs move the wrong way.
This is the math problem. A few points of operational pressure matter more when the business only keeps about 4 cents of each revenue dollar to begin with.
med
one business, falling sales
Revenue fell 2.2% last year to $8.6B, and the current FY2026 revenue estimate is roughly $8B. Because the company is essentially one packaging segment, there is no faster-growing division available to offset a slowdown.
If that revenue line keeps sliding, the cheap valuation will look less like an opportunity and more like the market doing basic arithmetic.
With $5.0B of long-term debt, a 4.4% net margin, and revenue already moving down from $8.6B toward an $8B estimate, this company does not have much room for errors or headlines.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
the next quarterly print
Q4 EPS was $0.29. You want to see whether that was a bad quarter or the new baseline.
metric
fy2026 eps estimate
Consensus sits at $1.10. If that number starts falling again, the "cheap" case gets thinner fast.
risk
the securities-fraud probe
Watch for any escalation beyond the initial law-firm investigation. This is the headline risk the market is already reacting to.
trend
revenue direction
Last year came in at $8.6B. The current view for FY2026 is roughly $8B. Stabilization matters more than management spin here.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts are not seeing a strong near-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. That means a middle-of-the-pack risk profile, not a safe haven and not a chaos stock.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. The chart is not flashing a special signal; it is mostly moving with the broader tape.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
55 out of 100 means earnings are less dependable than you want from a low-multiple income stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 164 buyers vs. 171 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$11
$29
$12
current price
$20
target midpoint · +70% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+110% · 23% ann'l return)
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